_Economy and Finance

Dynamic Regeneration: Design Centre Chelsea Harbour The Design Centre is the largest interior design retail and trade centre in Europe and forms part of the Chelsea Harbour Estate. http://www.marcol.com/index.php?page=chelsea-harbour

Chile: Manufacturing is weakening, despite April bounce Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Latam Macro Snapshot | 30 May 2013 18:07 | 327 Kb Manufacturing production expanded 3.4% y/y in April, in line with our 3.6% y/y call, and better than the consensus projection of 2.9% y/y. The main contribution to the annual gain came from increased production of processed food (+13.7% y/y). Despite the rebound, manufacturing growth in April is disappointing, especially given that this April had two more working days than April 2012.

German Home Boom as Europe Stagnates Set to Hurt Merkel By Dalia Fahmy May 28, 2013 Taxi driver Michael Ruedor lived for 20 years in a downtown Berlin apartment close to Checkpoint Charlie before rising rents forced him out. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-27/german-housing-boom-as-europe-stagnates-may-hurt-merkel-at-poll.html

New Mexico county first in nation to ban fracking to safeguard water In acting to protect their water supply, the 5,000 residents of poor, conservative Mora County make it the first in the U.S. to ban fracking -- hydraulic fracturing for oil. http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-fracking-ban-20130529,0,3018204,full.story By Julie Cart, Los Angeles Times May 28, 2013, 7:36 p.m. OCATE, N.M. — Sitting in the tidy living room of the home they built themselves, Sandra and Roger Alcon inventory what they see as the bounty of their lives: freedom, family, community, land, animals … and water.

Real estate debt funds still at 'embryonic' stage Sarah Krouse 23 May 2013 Property debt funds are stepping in to replace banks as a source of lending, but real estate experts say the process is still at a very early stage of development. http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/2013-05-23/real-estate-debt-funds-in-embryonic-stage

Docklands, Victoria Docklands (also known as Melbourne Docklands to differentiate it from London Docklands) is a suburb of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, 2 km (1.2 mi) west of Melbourne's Central Business District. Its local government area is the City of Melbourne. At the 2011 Census, Docklands had a population of 5,791. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Docklands,_Victoria

Prime high street is retail’s best performer 23 May 2013 According to Savills, the total volume of retail deals recorded in its survey for Q113 is up 25% to €4.7bn compared to Q112 with UK, Germany and France capturing the most activity at 37%, 40% and 11% respectively. High street deals have increased dramatically from 14% to 20% comparing Q112 to Q113 and have seen a significant shift in prime high street retail yields which are now just 15 bps above 2007 levels at 4.8% with lowest achievable yields recorded in London (3.0%) and Munich (3.5%), and the highest in Lisbon (7.5%) and Athens (6.75%). http://www.savills.co.uk/_news/newsitem.aspx?intSitePageId=0&intNewsSitePageId=158215-0&intNewsMonth=5&intNewsYear=2013

Perth and Melbourne office markets have the brightest prospects as commercial property sentiment lifts: NAB Index By Larry Schlesinger Wednesday, 22 May 2013 The Melbourne and Perth office markets are forecast to deliver the strongest returns to commercial property landlords over the next two years with both capital values and rents rising, according to the March quarter NAB Commercial Property survey. http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/commercial/perth-and-melbourne-office-markets-have-the-brightest-prospects-as-commercial-property-sentiment-lifts-nab-index-nab/2013052261577

Capital targeted by Europe-focused real estate debt funds up 335% from a year ago BY: TIMOTHY POLLARD PUBLISHED: MAY 20, 2013 According to data tracked by Preqin, there are currently 19 Europe-focused real estate debt funds in the market targeting commitments of €10 billion ($12.8 billion) - compared to just €2.3 billion ($2.9 billion) a year ago. The increase is driven by institutional investors' increased appetite for real estate debt, as the number of new fund searches increased significantly from a year ago. Among new fund searches in the first-quarter of 2013, 27% were targeting real estate debt funds, compared with 8% in the first quarter of 2012. http://www.pionline.com/article/20130520/CHARTOFDAY/130529999

A new Asia Credit Perspectives by Raja Mukherji and Taosha Wang is available on pimco.com . As Energy Demand Outpaces Supply, Asia Looks Overseas to Refuel · We expect more Asian oil and gas companies to tap the bond market going forward, often to finance acquisitions outside the region. · Many Asian countries are encountering growing energy shortages due to declining indigenous resources and domestic consumption growth. · Oil companies in Asia frequently engage in overseas acquisitions. In many cases, these transactions help enlarge reserve base, access technological know-hows and enhance corporate profitability. · Strong sovereign support is a key investment thesis in the Asian oil and gas sector. Through our bottom-up analysis, we are finding numerous investment opportunities.

Melbourne CBD 20.05.2013 How would you describe your market at the moment? Melbourne, like many other Australian CBD office markets is characterised by a challenging demand environment. Occupiers remain reluctant to move or make long-term decisions while commodity and financial markets are volatile. http://www.joneslanglasallesites.com/leasing/market-overview/melbourne-cbd-5

Chile: Q1 Growth Disappoints Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Latam Macro Snapshot | 20 May 2013 16:29 | GDP growth came in 4.1% y/y in Q1 , weaker than the consensus estimate of 4.5% and our own projection of 4.4%. On a quarterly basis, growth posted 0.50% q/q (sa) higher in Q1, in line with our 0.45 q/q call but weaker than 1.0% q/q consensus projection (Chart 1).

MERGERS & ACQUISITIONS MAY 17, 2013, 2:36 PM 3 Foreign Companies Invest in U.S. Project to Export Liquid Gas BY STANLEY REED In a sign that the United States shale gas boom is making global waves, two Japanese conglomerates and a big French energy player signed agreements on Friday to invest up to $7 billion in a liquefied natural gas project in Louisiana. http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/05/17/3-foreign-companies-invest-in-u-s-project-to-export-liquid-gas/

London office market 'reborn' Thursday 16 May 2013 Construction activity in the capital running at three times the level of three years ago, with 9.7 million sq ft of office space under construction. http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_GB/uk/news/news-in-focus/e72971f2eacae310VgnVCM2000003356f70aRCRD.htm

RPT-Fitch: Strong Refinancing Activity in German Multifamily Housing Market Tue May 14, 2013 3:40am EDT http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/14/fitch-strong-refinancing-activity-in-ger-idUSFit65614820130514 May 14 (Reuters) - (The following statement was released by the rating agency) Fitch Ratings says in a new report that refinancing activity has been strong in the German multifamily (MFH) CMBS transactions, but balloon risk still remains.

Peru: Deteriorating terms of trade and trade balance in Q1 Nader Nazmi, Oscar Munoz - Market Economics Latam Macro Snapshot | 13 May 2013 20:37 | The trade balance shifted to a deficit of USD 29mn in Q1 from a surplus of USD 1.5bn in Q4. On a 12-month accumulated basis, Peru’s trade surplus narrowed to USD 3.4bn in March from USD 10.8bn a year ago.

May 8, 2013 Metal Detector Update Why are Chinese copper imports falling? Max Layton, Roger Yuan, Jeffrey Currie Lower Chinese copper imports do not equal weak consumption Chinese unwrought copper imports for April fell by 7% mom, and dropped 21% yoy over the same period, implying a 20-25kt mom fall in refined copper imports in April, to c.195-200kt. The mom fall reflects China’s ability to draw on domestic SHFE and Chinese bonded copper stocks accumulated in 2012, as well as lower Chilean exports owing to the port strike in late March/early April. Owing primarily to the large Chinese stock draws, the early indications are that Chinese apparent demand rose significantly in April, following a small pick-up in March (apparent demand equals refined production plus net imports minus estimated stock change). This estimated pick-up in apparent demand is line with strong semi-fabricated output growth in 1Q13 and industry anecdotes of a further pick-up in demand in April.

Chile: Deeper Deflation than Expected Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Latam Macro Snapshot | 08 May 2013 14:04 | Consumer prices declined 0.5% m/m in April. The monthly decline exceeded the 0.1% m/m drop that the consensus and we had anticipated. The main difference was a 2.0% m/m decline in transportation prices, which subtracted 0.4pp from headline inflation. The decline in transportation prices was driven by a 13.2% m/m drop in bus fares due to holiday-related factors.

Canadian Cool Down Bricklin Dwyer - Market Economics US Daily Spotlight | 09 May 2013 00:20 | The housing market in Canada continues to be the most significant risk facing the economy. While the economy is closely tied to both US economic (mostly autos and housing) growth and global commodity prices, the Canadian consumer has been the driving force behind economic growth, making up over 54% of GDP. In spite of the lacklustre 0.7% q/q saar and 0.6% rates of GDP growth in Q3 and Q4 last year, personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.5pp to growth each quarter and kept the economy expanding. Despite this persistent strength in consumption, growth in disposable income and residential investment has slowed substantially – pointing to vulnerability in consumer demand.

Commerzbank Corporates & Markets Economic Research https://research.commerzbank.com Economic Briefing Germany: Good order figures with one blemish Germany’s industrial orders surprised on the positive side in March by rising 2.2% on the previous month. Consequently, the basis trend in orders is slightly upwards again. The one flaw in these otherwise good figures is the sharp fall of domestic core capital goods orders, which could indicate a lower willingness to invest again.

Melbourne office slump set to continue Published:06 May 2013 Author:Claire Chaffey Source:Property Week The Melbourne office market is set to get worse before it gets better, potentially setting off market panic, according to the latest BIS Shrapnel report. http://www.propertyoz.com.au/Article/NewsDetail.aspx?p=16&id=7590

Chile: Growth Disappoints in March and in Q1 Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Latam Macro Snapshot | 06 May 2013 14:50 | Chile’s monthly GDP (Imacec) fell well short of expectations with growth slowing to a 20-month low in March. Real GDP growth decelerated from 3.8% y/y in February to 3.1% y/y in March compared to the consensus and our projections of 4.7% y/y and 5.1% y/y, respectively. A 3.0% y/y contraction in manufacturing output was the main drag on growth, as expected. Growth in the service sector (+4.1% y/y), however, also disappointed. Mining output increased 6.9% y/y.

Sun Sentinel Investigation: Tax lien sharks use shell companies to squeeze out locals By Megan O'Matz and John Maines, Sun Sentinel 5:47 p.m. EDT, May 3, 2013 Tax lien auctions are a little-known but juicy Florida financial market worth up to $1 billion a year. And, the Sun Sentinel has found, banks, hedge funds and other financial powerhouses have hit upon a way to game the system, squeeze out the little guy and gobble up most of the good deals. http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/palm-beach/fl-inside-florida-tax-lien-market-20130428,0,2224747,full.story

US insurers target European commercial real estate debt Author: Louie Woodall Source: Insurance Risk | 03 May 2013 Categories: Asset allocation, Insurance Attractive yields and supply demand mismatch spur interest American insurers are increasing their investment in UK and European commercial real estate (CRE) debt, as domestic insurers struggle to meet burgeoning demand. http://www.risk.net/insurance-risk/news/2266005/us-insurers-target-european-commercial-real-estate-debt

Investors eyeing active regional office markets outside London 1 May 2013 by Simret Samra Posted in News Headlines Key regional office markets outside of London witnessed a resurgence of interest from investors in Q1 2013, with strong demand for prime office stock. http://www.knightfrankblog.com/commercial-briefing/news-headlines/investors-eyeing-active-regional-office-markets-outside-of-london/

Q1 2013 occupier activity increases by 25% in UK’s Big Six office markets Current occupier demand levels, prelets and speculative starts buoy optimism London, 1 May 2013 – Signs of recovery across the UK’S Big Six* regional office markets continued during the first quarter of 2013 (Q1 2013) with total occupier take-up reaching one million sq ft, an increase of 25% compared with the same period last year, according to Jones Lang LaSalle’s latest research. http://www.joneslanglasalle.co.uk/UnitedKingdom/EN-GB/Pages/NewsItem.aspx?ItemID=27899

BIS warns of Melbourne office market “panic” Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Propertyon April 30, 2013 | By Leith van Onselen Earlier this month, Morgan Stanley released detailed analysis pointing to a big ramp-up in office construction and office vacancy rates in Melbourne over the next couple of years. http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/04/bis-warns-of-melbourne-office-market-panic/