Market Trend: New York City's Office Vacancy Decreases to 7.4%
Net Absorption Positive 990,481 SF in the Quarter
By Justin Sumner
January 31, 2013
The New York City Office market ended the fourth quarter 2012 with a vacancy rate of 7.4%.
The vacancy rate was down over the previous quarter, with net absorption totaling positive 990,481 square feet in the fourth quarter. That compares to negative 575,819 square feet in the third quarter. Vacant sublease space increased in the quarter, ending the quarter at 4,944,077 square feet.
http://www.costar.com/News/Article/Market-Trend-New-York-Citys-Office-Vacancy-Decreases-to-74/145256
Thursday, January 31, 2013
First Insights: China: Surprise fall in official PMI
Economics Research | Asia Ex-Japan
01 February 2013
First Insights: China: Surprise fall in official PMI
China’s official PMI dropped surprisingly to 50.4 in January from 50.6 in December (Consensus 51.0, Nomura 50.9), which casts some doubt on the strength and sustainability of the growth recovery.
Sub-indexes show mixed signals. Output was down to 51.3 from 52.0, but new orders rose to 51.6 from 51.2 and while inventories of finished goods fell to 47.4 from 49.4, which suggests that the PMI may improve next month.
The improvement of new orders was mostly driven by domestic demand as export orders fell. Input prices rose sharply to 57.2 from 53.3, reinforcing our view that inflation may surprise on the upside in 2013.
Economists
Zhiwei Zhang
01 February 2013
First Insights: China: Surprise fall in official PMI
China’s official PMI dropped surprisingly to 50.4 in January from 50.6 in December (Consensus 51.0, Nomura 50.9), which casts some doubt on the strength and sustainability of the growth recovery.
Sub-indexes show mixed signals. Output was down to 51.3 from 52.0, but new orders rose to 51.6 from 51.2 and while inventories of finished goods fell to 47.4 from 49.4, which suggests that the PMI may improve next month.
The improvement of new orders was mostly driven by domestic demand as export orders fell. Input prices rose sharply to 57.2 from 53.3, reinforcing our view that inflation may surprise on the upside in 2013.
Economists
Zhiwei Zhang
Eco Analysis - Impressive German labour data (M. Martinez, A. Annenkov)
Eco Analysis - Impressive German labour data (M. Martinez, A. Annenkov)
Hard data once gain underlined the growing divergences between the French and German economies. German labour data proved very impressive and the unemployment rate dropped to a 20 year low in January (6.8% in January. Meanwhile, French consumption was flat in Q4 12 and details suggest that it is likely to remain sluggish in Q1 13.
Hard data once gain underlined the growing divergences between the French and German economies. German labour data proved very impressive and the unemployment rate dropped to a 20 year low in January (6.8% in January. Meanwhile, French consumption was flat in Q4 12 and details suggest that it is likely to remain sluggish in Q1 13.
European real estate loan sales to gather pace in 2013
EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE LOAN SALES TO GATHER PACE IN 2013
30 Jan, 2013, London
Against a background of continued economic uncertainty and impending regulatory changes, the pace of activity in the European real estate loan sale market will accelerate significantly over the next two years according to a new report from property consultant Cushman & Wakefield. Over the past 12 months, a total of 33 completed loan sale transactions were recorded, totaling €21.7 billion (up 146% on 2011), demonstrating that European commercial real estate (CRE) loan portfolios can be successfully traded. The market has made a strong start to 2013 and in view of the build up of activity amongst the banks and their legacy entities and their aggressive deleveraging targets, Cushman & Wakefield is forecasting over €25 billion of CRE loan portfolio and real estate-owned (REO) sales for the forthcoming year.
http://www.cushwake.com/cwglobal/jsp/newsLanding.jsp?Language=EN&featuredNewsItemId=c60500007p&Country=GB&pageStart=26
30 Jan, 2013, London
Against a background of continued economic uncertainty and impending regulatory changes, the pace of activity in the European real estate loan sale market will accelerate significantly over the next two years according to a new report from property consultant Cushman & Wakefield. Over the past 12 months, a total of 33 completed loan sale transactions were recorded, totaling €21.7 billion (up 146% on 2011), demonstrating that European commercial real estate (CRE) loan portfolios can be successfully traded. The market has made a strong start to 2013 and in view of the build up of activity amongst the banks and their legacy entities and their aggressive deleveraging targets, Cushman & Wakefield is forecasting over €25 billion of CRE loan portfolio and real estate-owned (REO) sales for the forthcoming year.
http://www.cushwake.com/cwglobal/jsp/newsLanding.jsp?Language=EN&featuredNewsItemId=c60500007p&Country=GB&pageStart=26
USA: Sabine Pass Liquefaction Prices Senior Notes Offering, USA
USA: Sabine Pass Liquefaction Prices Senior Notes Offering, USA
Posted on Jan 30th, 2013
Cheniere Energy Partners said that its wholly owned subsidiary, Sabine Pass Liquefaction has priced its previously announced offering of Senior Secured Notes due 2021.
http://www.lngworldnews.com/usa-sabine-pass-liquefaction-prices-senior-notes-offering-usa/
Posted on Jan 30th, 2013
Cheniere Energy Partners said that its wholly owned subsidiary, Sabine Pass Liquefaction has priced its previously announced offering of Senior Secured Notes due 2021.
http://www.lngworldnews.com/usa-sabine-pass-liquefaction-prices-senior-notes-offering-usa/
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
US: Markets Through the Looking Glass
US: Markets Through the Looking Glass
Julia Coronado - Market Economics
US Daily Spotlight | 31 Jan 2013 01:40 |
Financial markets continued their increasingly bizarre, bullish run Wednesday, with a teensy equity selloff and little change in Treasury yields, despite a surprise negative print on Q4 GDP growth. While a number of volatile drivers of Q4 GDP weakness should be smoothed through, one truly needs to be peering through the looking glass to extract a positive spin from such a negative surprise. The FOMC also looked through the Q4 economic weakness, although the Committee drew the conclusion that not enough has changed in the economic outlook for them to alter their ongoing expansion of monetary policy, and they maintained their USD 85bn pace of securities purchases. It appears that a recent expansion in leverage on the part of hedge funds has contributed to the bull run in markets that has been impervious to weaker-than-expected economic data, and, at some point, markets could become responsive once again to economic data.
Julia Coronado - Market Economics
US Daily Spotlight | 31 Jan 2013 01:40 |
Financial markets continued their increasingly bizarre, bullish run Wednesday, with a teensy equity selloff and little change in Treasury yields, despite a surprise negative print on Q4 GDP growth. While a number of volatile drivers of Q4 GDP weakness should be smoothed through, one truly needs to be peering through the looking glass to extract a positive spin from such a negative surprise. The FOMC also looked through the Q4 economic weakness, although the Committee drew the conclusion that not enough has changed in the economic outlook for them to alter their ongoing expansion of monetary policy, and they maintained their USD 85bn pace of securities purchases. It appears that a recent expansion in leverage on the part of hedge funds has contributed to the bull run in markets that has been impervious to weaker-than-expected economic data, and, at some point, markets could become responsive once again to economic data.
Bechtel Completes Construction Of Chemical Weapons Demilitarization Facility
BECHTEL COMPLETES CONSTRUCTION OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS DEMILITARIZATION FACILITY
January 29, 2013
Colorado Plant is First of Its Kind in the United States
PUEBLO, COLORADO, January 29, 2013 — Bechtel announced today the Bechtel Pueblo Team (BPT) has completed construction of the Pueblo Chemical Agent-Destruction Pilot Plant (PCAPP). The facility will eventually destroy 2,611 tons of mustard agent-filled munitions currently being stored at the U.S. Army Pueblo Chemical Depot in Colorado.
January 29, 2013
Colorado Plant is First of Its Kind in the United States
PUEBLO, COLORADO, January 29, 2013 — Bechtel announced today the Bechtel Pueblo Team (BPT) has completed construction of the Pueblo Chemical Agent-Destruction Pilot Plant (PCAPP). The facility will eventually destroy 2,611 tons of mustard agent-filled munitions currently being stored at the U.S. Army Pueblo Chemical Depot in Colorado.
Eco Analysis - FOMC stays the course (A. Markowska)
Eco Analysis - FOMC stays the course (A. Markowska)
Summary: The FOMC statement was very much inline with expectations. Asset purchases will continue at $85bn per month until the outlook for the labor market improves substantially, or until the perceived costs start to outweigh the benefits. The FOMC did not offer any new color on when that may be (and none was expected). The Fed's characterization of Q4 GDP numbers was a temporary pause driven by transitory factors. The statement notes some improvement in private sector demand, and sees the current policy stance as consistent with the recovery proceeding at a moderate pace. After the annual rotation of voting members, there was only one dissent vs. the possibility of two, perhaps suggesting a slightly less hawkish bias than expected. We will look to FOMC minutes on February 20th for more color on the timeframe for asset purchases.
Summary: The FOMC statement was very much inline with expectations. Asset purchases will continue at $85bn per month until the outlook for the labor market improves substantially, or until the perceived costs start to outweigh the benefits. The FOMC did not offer any new color on when that may be (and none was expected). The Fed's characterization of Q4 GDP numbers was a temporary pause driven by transitory factors. The statement notes some improvement in private sector demand, and sees the current policy stance as consistent with the recovery proceeding at a moderate pace. After the annual rotation of voting members, there was only one dissent vs. the possibility of two, perhaps suggesting a slightly less hawkish bias than expected. We will look to FOMC minutes on February 20th for more color on the timeframe for asset purchases.
Chile: Mixed supply- and demand-side activity data in December
Chile: Mixed supply- and demand-side activity data in December
Florencia Vazquez - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 30 Jan 2013 14:04 |
Manufacturing activity was reported to have contracted 2.5% y/y in December, a result that disappointed both our forecast and the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey (0.8% and 1.0% y/y, respectively). Despite weak performance in recent months, manufacturing output managed to advance 2.4% last year.
Florencia Vazquez - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 30 Jan 2013 14:04 |
Manufacturing activity was reported to have contracted 2.5% y/y in December, a result that disappointed both our forecast and the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey (0.8% and 1.0% y/y, respectively). Despite weak performance in recent months, manufacturing output managed to advance 2.4% last year.
Chile – December manufacturing production and real retail sales data are expected to be mixed today.
Chile – December manufacturing production and real retail sales data are expected to be mixed today.
December mixed manufacturing production and real retail sales data will attract attention today. Manufacturing production is expected to have maintained its y/y pace of growth unchanged at 0.8% in December. In sequential (sa) terms, we expect a flat reading. This would put annual manufacturing production growth at 2.2% for all of 2012.
December mixed manufacturing production and real retail sales data will attract attention today. Manufacturing production is expected to have maintained its y/y pace of growth unchanged at 0.8% in December. In sequential (sa) terms, we expect a flat reading. This would put annual manufacturing production growth at 2.2% for all of 2012.
S. Korea: Industrial Production (Dec 2012)
S. Korea: Industrial Production (Dec 2012)
Dominic Bryant - Market Economics
Asian Instant Insight | 30 Jan 2013 03:00 |
South Korean industrial data surprised to the upside in December. Consumer durables production remained a driving force, partly reflecting further strength in autos as it continues to recover from a strike in August. However, business confidence remains below average so the recent strength in production is unlikely to be sustained. Moreover, capital goods production continues to contract and GDP was soft in Q4, so the recent strength in some parts of manufacturing is not widespread. We continue to forecast a 25bp rate cut in February, although recent monthly data have increased the risk of a delay until the March meeting.
Dominic Bryant - Market Economics
Asian Instant Insight | 30 Jan 2013 03:00 |
South Korean industrial data surprised to the upside in December. Consumer durables production remained a driving force, partly reflecting further strength in autos as it continues to recover from a strike in August. However, business confidence remains below average so the recent strength in production is unlikely to be sustained. Moreover, capital goods production continues to contract and GDP was soft in Q4, so the recent strength in some parts of manufacturing is not widespread. We continue to forecast a 25bp rate cut in February, although recent monthly data have increased the risk of a delay until the March meeting.
U.S. High Yield Default Loss Rate Below 1% in 2012
U.S. High Yield Default Loss Rate Below 1% in 2012
For the third consecutive year, the U.S. high yield default rate remained well below average, ending 2012 at 1.9% and up just modestly from 1.5% in 2011. The average recovery rate on the year’s defaults was 50.2% and the median recovery, 38.9%. Both measures slipped from 2011’s more robust 59.4% average and 47.9% median.
For the third consecutive year, the U.S. high yield default rate remained well below average, ending 2012 at 1.9% and up just modestly from 1.5% in 2011. The average recovery rate on the year’s defaults was 50.2% and the median recovery, 38.9%. Both measures slipped from 2011’s more robust 59.4% average and 47.9% median.
Rating Action: Moody's affirms Sabine Pass Liquefaction's upsized $1.5 billion senior secured notes. Outlook remains stable.
Rating Action: Moody's affirms Sabine Pass Liquefaction's upsized $1.5 billion senior secured notes. Outlook remains stable.
Global Credit Research - 29 Jan 2013
Approximately $6 billion of debt affected
New York, January 29, 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service affirmed Sabine Pass Liquefaction's (SPL) Ba3 rating on its upsized $1.5 billion of senior secured notes due 2021. The senior secured note offering was previously sized at $1 billion. Moody's also affirmed SPL's Ba3 on its $3.6 billion first lien bank term loan due 2019 and Sabine Pass LNG's (SPLNG) B1 rating on its $2.1 billion in senior secured notes. The rating outlooks for SPL and SPLNG are stable.
http://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/Sabine-Pass-Liquefaction-LLC-credit-rating-823099178
Global Credit Research - 29 Jan 2013
Approximately $6 billion of debt affected
New York, January 29, 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service affirmed Sabine Pass Liquefaction's (SPL) Ba3 rating on its upsized $1.5 billion of senior secured notes due 2021. The senior secured note offering was previously sized at $1 billion. Moody's also affirmed SPL's Ba3 on its $3.6 billion first lien bank term loan due 2019 and Sabine Pass LNG's (SPLNG) B1 rating on its $2.1 billion in senior secured notes. The rating outlooks for SPL and SPLNG are stable.
http://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/Sabine-Pass-Liquefaction-LLC-credit-rating-823099178
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Peru: No capital controls, but USD purchases by the finance ministry to help stem SOL appreciation.
Peru: No capital controls, but USD purchases by the finance ministry to help stem SOL appreciation.
Central Reserve Bank of Peru President Julio Velarde on Friday said that capital controls are not needed for stemming the pace of SOL appreciation. He said that he has never considered capital controls as an option and that the sol appreciation reflects its strong fundamentals. Finance Minister Luis Miguel Castilla announced government plans to purchase as much as USD 4.0bn this year to help the central bank control the pace of SOL appreciation. According to Minister Castilla, proceeds from USD purchases will be used to service and prepay external debt, as well as increase savings in the country’s Fiscal Stabilization Fund (FEF).
Central Reserve Bank of Peru President Julio Velarde on Friday said that capital controls are not needed for stemming the pace of SOL appreciation. He said that he has never considered capital controls as an option and that the sol appreciation reflects its strong fundamentals. Finance Minister Luis Miguel Castilla announced government plans to purchase as much as USD 4.0bn this year to help the central bank control the pace of SOL appreciation. According to Minister Castilla, proceeds from USD purchases will be used to service and prepay external debt, as well as increase savings in the country’s Fiscal Stabilization Fund (FEF).
Chile: German businessmen would like to increase investments in Chile.
Chile: German businessmen would like to increase investments in Chile.
German businessmen would like to increase investments in Chile. Following a bilateral meeting with President Piñera at the time of the summit in Santiago last weekend, German Chancellor Merkel praised Chile’s robust economic performance and expressed satisfaction for growing German investments in the country. Mrs Merkel also offered the Chilean president her country’s cooperation in terms of developing renewable energy resources, given Chile’s structural energy deficit.
German businessmen would like to increase investments in Chile. Following a bilateral meeting with President Piñera at the time of the summit in Santiago last weekend, German Chancellor Merkel praised Chile’s robust economic performance and expressed satisfaction for growing German investments in the country. Mrs Merkel also offered the Chilean president her country’s cooperation in terms of developing renewable energy resources, given Chile’s structural energy deficit.
Turkey: Inflation outlook left unchanged
Turkey: Inflation outlook left unchanged
The CBRT left its end-2013 inflation forecast unchanged at 5.3%, with a 70%-probability forecast range of 3.9-6.7%. CPI inflation is forecast to slip to 4.9% by end 2014 (with a 70%-probability forecast range of 3.1-6.7%). The official inflation target was kept at 5% for both years. The CBRT sees annual inflation rising in January on the back of tobacco tax hikes and resuming a downward trend thereafter. Core inflation is forecast to maintain its downward trend and fall below 5% by year end.
The CBRT left its end-2013 inflation forecast unchanged at 5.3%, with a 70%-probability forecast range of 3.9-6.7%. CPI inflation is forecast to slip to 4.9% by end 2014 (with a 70%-probability forecast range of 3.1-6.7%). The official inflation target was kept at 5% for both years. The CBRT sees annual inflation rising in January on the back of tobacco tax hikes and resuming a downward trend thereafter. Core inflation is forecast to maintain its downward trend and fall below 5% by year end.
European commercial property investment rallies in Q4
EUROPEAN COMMERCIAL PROPERTY INVESTMENT RALLIES IN Q4
28 Jan, 2013, London
Trading activity in European commercial property rallied in late 2012 as the market stabilised after its midyear malaise to post the highest level of quarterly trading since 2007 at €43.7bn in Q4, according to the latest data from property consultants Cushman & Wakefield.
http://www.cushwake.com/cwglobal/jsp/newsDetail.jsp?Language=EN&repId=c57800004p&Country=GB
28 Jan, 2013, London
Trading activity in European commercial property rallied in late 2012 as the market stabilised after its midyear malaise to post the highest level of quarterly trading since 2007 at €43.7bn in Q4, according to the latest data from property consultants Cushman & Wakefield.
http://www.cushwake.com/cwglobal/jsp/newsDetail.jsp?Language=EN&repId=c57800004p&Country=GB
Monday, January 28, 2013
UPDATE 1-Shell, Kinder plan to export natgas from United States
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100413394
UPDATE 1-Shell, Kinder plan to export natgas from United States
Published: Monday, 28 Jan 2013 | 2:38 PM ET
By: Jeanine Prezioso
* LNG exports planned from Elba Island near Savannah, Georgia
* LNG cargoes fetch as much as $18/mmBtu, US price below $4
* Exports have US DOE approval but project under review
UPDATE 1-Shell, Kinder plan to export natgas from United States
Published: Monday, 28 Jan 2013 | 2:38 PM ET
By: Jeanine Prezioso
* LNG exports planned from Elba Island near Savannah, Georgia
* LNG cargoes fetch as much as $18/mmBtu, US price below $4
* Exports have US DOE approval but project under review
Asia Chart Alert: China: Industrial profit improves; destocking continues
Economics Research | Asia Ex-Japan
28 January 2013
Asia Chart Alert: China: Industrial profit improves; destocking continues
Data further support our view that GDP growth is likely to rebound to 8.2% y-o-y in Q1 2013.
Fig. 1: Industrial profit and inventory
28 January 2013
Asia Chart Alert: China: Industrial profit improves; destocking continues
Data further support our view that GDP growth is likely to rebound to 8.2% y-o-y in Q1 2013.
Fig. 1: Industrial profit and inventory
Natural Gas Exports for U.S. Jobs, Growth, and Trade
Natural Gas Exports for U.S. Jobs, Growth, and Trade
Posted January 27, 2013
This week API, on behalf of the U.S. oil and natural gas industry, furnished comments on the Energy Department’s 2012 study of the impact of exporting U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG). You can read them in full here, but let’s cover some of the main points:
http://theenergycollective.com/mark-green/177261/lng-exports-us-jobs-economic-growth-trade
Posted January 27, 2013
This week API, on behalf of the U.S. oil and natural gas industry, furnished comments on the Energy Department’s 2012 study of the impact of exporting U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG). You can read them in full here, but let’s cover some of the main points:
http://theenergycollective.com/mark-green/177261/lng-exports-us-jobs-economic-growth-trade
Sunday, January 27, 2013
Turkey: Capacity Utilisation
Turkey: Capacity Utilisation
Correction of the December Data Resulted in a m/m Decline in the CUR
On a seasonally adjusted basis, capacity utilisation rate (CUR) decreased 0.5pp m/m to 73.1% in January. Unadjusted CUR decreased 1.2pp m/m to 72.4%. On our calculations, both consumer goods and durable goods production increased by 0.7 pp m/m on a s.a. basis. On the other hand intermediate and investment goods production declined by -1.4 pp m/m and -0.8 pp m/m, respectively, partly counterbalancing the sharp rise they displayed last month. Among the export market oriented sectors, CUR in motor vehicles declined 1.0 pp m/m, while basic metals production dropped 1.7pp m/m. However CUR in textile sector remained strong and increased 1.3pp m/m.
Correction of the December Data Resulted in a m/m Decline in the CUR
On a seasonally adjusted basis, capacity utilisation rate (CUR) decreased 0.5pp m/m to 73.1% in January. Unadjusted CUR decreased 1.2pp m/m to 72.4%. On our calculations, both consumer goods and durable goods production increased by 0.7 pp m/m on a s.a. basis. On the other hand intermediate and investment goods production declined by -1.4 pp m/m and -0.8 pp m/m, respectively, partly counterbalancing the sharp rise they displayed last month. Among the export market oriented sectors, CUR in motor vehicles declined 1.0 pp m/m, while basic metals production dropped 1.7pp m/m. However CUR in textile sector remained strong and increased 1.3pp m/m.
Mexico: December trade balance – Strong headline; weak results
Mexico: December trade balance – Strong headline; weak results
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 25 Jan 2013 17:12 | 81 Kb
Here is the good news. Mexico reported a December trade surplus of USD 962mn while the consensus was expecting a deficit of USD 936mn. Now, the not-so-good news. Both imports and exports were weak and the surplus is explained by the fact that imports were weaker than exports.
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 25 Jan 2013 17:12 | 81 Kb
Here is the good news. Mexico reported a December trade surplus of USD 962mn while the consensus was expecting a deficit of USD 936mn. Now, the not-so-good news. Both imports and exports were weak and the surplus is explained by the fact that imports were weaker than exports.
Pension Liabilities – Time to Get Real
Pension Liabilities – Time to Get Real
· Creeping pension liabilities are an increasing concern for credit investors.
· Companies should provide more granular information on both sides of their pension balance sheets, as well as use more realistic assumptions.
· A few companies have improved their disclosures in recent years, but in general the information available to investors is still far from what we need.
· Creeping pension liabilities are an increasing concern for credit investors.
· Companies should provide more granular information on both sides of their pension balance sheets, as well as use more realistic assumptions.
· A few companies have improved their disclosures in recent years, but in general the information available to investors is still far from what we need.
Friday, January 25, 2013
Prime yields stabilise and investment activity increases as 2012 closes
PRIME YIELDS STABILISE AND INVESTMENT ACTIVITY INCREASES AS 2012 CLOSES
24 Jan, 2013, London
The UK property investment market in 2012 ended on a stronger note than many expected - yields stabilised and investment activity increased in the closing months of the year, according to a report by Cushman & Wakefield.
Cushman & Wakefield projects forecast activity for 2013 will hit £35.5 billion, 7.5 per cent ahead of 2012.
http://www.cushwake.com/cwglobal/jsp/newsDetail.jsp?Language=EN&repId=c57700005p&Country=GB
24 Jan, 2013, London
The UK property investment market in 2012 ended on a stronger note than many expected - yields stabilised and investment activity increased in the closing months of the year, according to a report by Cushman & Wakefield.
Cushman & Wakefield projects forecast activity for 2013 will hit £35.5 billion, 7.5 per cent ahead of 2012.
http://www.cushwake.com/cwglobal/jsp/newsDetail.jsp?Language=EN&repId=c57700005p&Country=GB
Chile: Unemployment in the Greater Santiago area reached a record low in December.
Chile: Unemployment in the Greater Santiago area reached a record low in December.
Unemployment in the Greater Santiago area reached a record low in December. According to Universidad de Chile, unemployment declined to 5.2% in December in the Greater Santiago area. While the jobless rate usually benefits from benign Q4 seasonality, the actual reading was a positive surprise. December’s result stood 1pp below its level in the previous year.
The official December unemployment rate will be unveiled next week. We look for a 6.1% reading.
Unemployment in the Greater Santiago area reached a record low in December. According to Universidad de Chile, unemployment declined to 5.2% in December in the Greater Santiago area. While the jobless rate usually benefits from benign Q4 seasonality, the actual reading was a positive surprise. December’s result stood 1pp below its level in the previous year.
The official December unemployment rate will be unveiled next week. We look for a 6.1% reading.
European retail real estate investment volumes reach €19.4bn in 2012
http://www.property-magazine.eu/
European retail real estate investment volumes reach €19.4bn in 2012
Jones Lang LaSalle reports that retail real estate investment was strong in Q4 2012 lifting full year investment to €19.4bn; the top end of our €18-20bn forecast. Direct investment in retail real estate for Q4 2012 is €7.6bn compared with € 8.5bn in Q4 2011, down 11%. Full year volumes are estimated at €19.4bn, in comparison with €31.3bn in 2011, approaching the five year average of €23.7bn.
European retail real estate investment volumes reach €19.4bn in 2012
Jones Lang LaSalle reports that retail real estate investment was strong in Q4 2012 lifting full year investment to €19.4bn; the top end of our €18-20bn forecast. Direct investment in retail real estate for Q4 2012 is €7.6bn compared with € 8.5bn in Q4 2011, down 11%. Full year volumes are estimated at €19.4bn, in comparison with €31.3bn in 2011, approaching the five year average of €23.7bn.
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Sabine Pass Liquefaction to offer $1B in debt for LNG train construction
http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2013/01/23/sabine-pass-liquefaction-to-offer-1.html
Sabine Pass Liquefaction to offer $1B in debt for LNG train construction
Collin Eaton
Sabine Pass Liquefaction LLC will soon offer $1 billion in senior secured notes due 2021, Houston-based natural gas distributor Cheniere Energy Partners LP (NYSE MKT: CQP) said in a statement.
Sabine Pass Liquefaction to offer $1B in debt for LNG train construction
Collin Eaton
Sabine Pass Liquefaction LLC will soon offer $1 billion in senior secured notes due 2021, Houston-based natural gas distributor Cheniere Energy Partners LP (NYSE MKT: CQP) said in a statement.
Interest Rates Will Spike This Year: Soros
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100401701
Interest Rates Will Spike This Year: Soros
Published: Thursday, 24 Jan 2013 | 4:34 PM ET
By: Justin Menza
There will be a dramatic rise in interest rates as soon as there are clear signs the U.S. economy is picking up, billionaire financier George Soros told CNBC.
Interest Rates Will Spike This Year: Soros
Published: Thursday, 24 Jan 2013 | 4:34 PM ET
By: Justin Menza
There will be a dramatic rise in interest rates as soon as there are clear signs the U.S. economy is picking up, billionaire financier George Soros told CNBC.
Dow Chemical CEO: Energy Growth a 'Game Changer'
Dow Chemical CEO: Energy Growth a 'Game Changer'
Published: Thursday, 24 Jan 2013 | 12:12 PM ET
By: Javier E. David | Special to CNBC.com
The U.S. energy complex including the growth of natural-gas drilling is "a game changer" that could easily contribute to global economic growth and job opportunities, Dow Chemical CEO Andrew Liveris told CNBC on Thursday.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100405183
Published: Thursday, 24 Jan 2013 | 12:12 PM ET
By: Javier E. David | Special to CNBC.com
The U.S. energy complex including the growth of natural-gas drilling is "a game changer" that could easily contribute to global economic growth and job opportunities, Dow Chemical CEO Andrew Liveris told CNBC on Thursday.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100405183
Asia Chart Alert: China: Labour market tightens further in Q4
Economics Research | Asia Ex-Japan
24 January 2013
Asia Chart Alert: China: Labour market tightens further in Q4
It reinforces our view that inflation will rise to over 4% y-o-y in H2.
Fig. 1: China’s labour demand/supply ratio and CPI inflation
24 January 2013
Asia Chart Alert: China: Labour market tightens further in Q4
It reinforces our view that inflation will rise to over 4% y-o-y in H2.
Fig. 1: China’s labour demand/supply ratio and CPI inflation
Manufacturers are Blocking the Free Flow of LNG
http://www.energybiz.com/
Manufacturers are Blocking the Free Flow of LNG
Ken Silverstein | Jan 23, 2013
Capitalism’s invisible hand has some interference when it comes to exporting liquefied natural gas. The producers of that super-cooled fuel want to ship their product overseas but manufacturers remain defiant and are blocking their path.
Manufacturers are Blocking the Free Flow of LNG
Ken Silverstein | Jan 23, 2013
Capitalism’s invisible hand has some interference when it comes to exporting liquefied natural gas. The producers of that super-cooled fuel want to ship their product overseas but manufacturers remain defiant and are blocking their path.
Tesco considers closing Home Plus stores
http://www.retail-week.com/
Tesco considers closing Home Plus stores
23 January, 2012 | By Alex Lawson
Tesco is set to exit its standalone furnishing stores after poor sales led it to review its estate.
The grocery giant is keen to exit leases on all of its 13 Home Plus stores and has been looking at options with property advisor Morgan Williams, according to The Times.
Tesco considers closing Home Plus stores
23 January, 2012 | By Alex Lawson
Tesco is set to exit its standalone furnishing stores after poor sales led it to review its estate.
The grocery giant is keen to exit leases on all of its 13 Home Plus stores and has been looking at options with property advisor Morgan Williams, according to The Times.
Land Securities Eyes Recovery in London Office Market
January 23, 2013, 6:20 a.m. ET
Land Securities Eyes Recovery in London Office Market
By PETER EVANS
LONDON—Land Securities Group PLC on Wednesday said the London office market is showing signs of revival, as the company announced several new lettings on a 36-storey office tower it is building in the capital.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323539804578259320372774536.html
Land Securities Eyes Recovery in London Office Market
By PETER EVANS
LONDON—Land Securities Group PLC on Wednesday said the London office market is showing signs of revival, as the company announced several new lettings on a 36-storey office tower it is building in the capital.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323539804578259320372774536.html
Tesco completes £26.3m Derby sale and lease back
http://www.insidermedia.com/insider/midlands/83443-tesco-completes-263m-derby-sale-and-lease-back
Tesco completes £26.3m Derby sale and lease back
Tesco has completed the sale and lease back of a 57,000 sq ft supermarket in Mickleover in Derby. AXA Real Estate Investment Managers has acquired the site for £26.3m.
Tesco completes £26.3m Derby sale and lease back
Tesco has completed the sale and lease back of a 57,000 sq ft supermarket in Mickleover in Derby. AXA Real Estate Investment Managers has acquired the site for £26.3m.
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
Eco Analysis - France: No sign of sentiment up according to INSEE (M. martinez)
Eco Analysis - France: No sign of sentiment up according to INSEE (M. martinez)
The most observed component of the INSEE survey, the business climate index in the industrial sector fell from 89 to 86. As it improves slightly in the service sector, the business climate index for the whole economy was stable at 87. This is a low level (1.3 standard deviations below average) which points at best to stalled activity in the near term. We have the long held view that INSEE surveys help generally improve accurate forecasts of GDP growth in the near term (our econometric model has a solid R²=0.93). The main reason is that the INSEE surveys are completed on a broad basis (4,000 of companies). The January surveys' results do not change our forecast at -0.1%qoq in Q4 12 and Q1 13, but we believe risks are tilted to the downside. Bottom line: the government 2013 GDP growth forecast of 0.8% looks increasingly unlikely after such a weak start to 2013 (SG forecast for 2013 is zero growth). Hence, we believe that the government would be obliged to make a further budgetary adjustment to achieve the public deficit target (3.0% of GDP). The government could instead opt for a minor fiscal slippage. We believe that the government will not confront such a choice before March 2013, once final 2012 GDP and fiscal figures will be known.
The most observed component of the INSEE survey, the business climate index in the industrial sector fell from 89 to 86. As it improves slightly in the service sector, the business climate index for the whole economy was stable at 87. This is a low level (1.3 standard deviations below average) which points at best to stalled activity in the near term. We have the long held view that INSEE surveys help generally improve accurate forecasts of GDP growth in the near term (our econometric model has a solid R²=0.93). The main reason is that the INSEE surveys are completed on a broad basis (4,000 of companies). The January surveys' results do not change our forecast at -0.1%qoq in Q4 12 and Q1 13, but we believe risks are tilted to the downside. Bottom line: the government 2013 GDP growth forecast of 0.8% looks increasingly unlikely after such a weak start to 2013 (SG forecast for 2013 is zero growth). Hence, we believe that the government would be obliged to make a further budgetary adjustment to achieve the public deficit target (3.0% of GDP). The government could instead opt for a minor fiscal slippage. We believe that the government will not confront such a choice before March 2013, once final 2012 GDP and fiscal figures will be known.
Eco Analysis - UK in or out? (B. Hilliard)
Eco Analysis - UK in or out? (B. Hilliard)
UK PM Cameron delivered his “Europe” speech in London and committed to holding a referendum on Britain's future in the EU if a Conservative government is re-elected in May 2015. The issue is thus set to remain theoretical for a while, but uncertainty can have a negative impact on investment flows into UK in the meantime. On the data side in Europe, French industrial confidence surprised on the downside in January as internal and external demand ebbed. Hence, in contrast with the German Zew survey, hopes that the improved market sentiment paves the way for more positive hard data in the euro area will be disappointed (at least in France in the short term).
UK PM Cameron delivered his “Europe” speech in London and committed to holding a referendum on Britain's future in the EU if a Conservative government is re-elected in May 2015. The issue is thus set to remain theoretical for a while, but uncertainty can have a negative impact on investment flows into UK in the meantime. On the data side in Europe, French industrial confidence surprised on the downside in January as internal and external demand ebbed. Hence, in contrast with the German Zew survey, hopes that the improved market sentiment paves the way for more positive hard data in the euro area will be disappointed (at least in France in the short term).
EU Carbon Market Is at Risk of Total Collapse, Lawmaker Says
EU Carbon Market Is at Risk of Total Collapse, Lawmaker Says
By Ewa Krukowska - Jan 22, 2013
The European Union’s emissions trading system, the world’s largest, is at a risk of “total collapse” and a draft measure to fix it must become a top priority for governments, a member of the EU Parliament said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-22/eu-carbon-market-is-at-risk-of-total-collapse-lawmaker-says.html
By Ewa Krukowska - Jan 22, 2013
The European Union’s emissions trading system, the world’s largest, is at a risk of “total collapse” and a draft measure to fix it must become a top priority for governments, a member of the EU Parliament said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-22/eu-carbon-market-is-at-risk-of-total-collapse-lawmaker-says.html
Tail Risk Hedging: It Pays to Be Countercyclical
Tail Risk Hedging: It Pays to Be Countercyclical
Vineer Bhansali
· The cost of hedging in absolute terms is back to pre-crisis lows.
· Quiet markets, low volatility and a lack of visible risks on the horizon can lead to complacence and increasingly dangerous, leveraged positions.
· Many credit markets have been direct beneficiaries of the belief in seemingly lower tail risks in equity markets, and could also end up suffering if there is a re-emergence of widespread fear of, and upward repricing of, these tails.
· Investors should consider taking this opportunity to reload their hedges as soon as they can.
Vineer Bhansali
· The cost of hedging in absolute terms is back to pre-crisis lows.
· Quiet markets, low volatility and a lack of visible risks on the horizon can lead to complacence and increasingly dangerous, leveraged positions.
· Many credit markets have been direct beneficiaries of the belief in seemingly lower tail risks in equity markets, and could also end up suffering if there is a re-emergence of widespread fear of, and upward repricing of, these tails.
· Investors should consider taking this opportunity to reload their hedges as soon as they can.
Chile’s Piñera Sees a New Era of European-Latin American Relations
http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/
Chile’s Piñera Sees a New Era of European-Latin American Relations
President says region’s economic strength will enable Latin leaders to discuss trade and investment as equals with their EU counterparts.
By Jonathan Kandell
Chile’s Piñera Sees a New Era of European-Latin American Relations
President says region’s economic strength will enable Latin leaders to discuss trade and investment as equals with their EU counterparts.
By Jonathan Kandell
Pension Funds Reap Healthy Returns from Alternative Fixed Income
http://www.institutionalinvestor.com
Pension Funds Reap Healthy Returns from Alternative Fixed Income
In their quest for higher yields in the wake of the financial crisis, pension funds have been seeking alternatives to traditional bond investments. As conventional lenders pull back, hedge funds and asset managers are meeting this demand by offering loans and packaging the debt as alternative fixed-income products.
By Frances Denmark
Pension Funds Reap Healthy Returns from Alternative Fixed Income
In their quest for higher yields in the wake of the financial crisis, pension funds have been seeking alternatives to traditional bond investments. As conventional lenders pull back, hedge funds and asset managers are meeting this demand by offering loans and packaging the debt as alternative fixed-income products.
By Frances Denmark
Argentina: The merchandise trade surplus rose to USD 12.7 bn in 2012
Argentina: The merchandise trade surplus rose to USD 12.7 bn in 2012
Florencia Vazquez - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 23 Jan 2013 20:25 |
The merchandise trade surplus was reported to have stood at USD 0.53 billion in December. The reading stood fairly in line with our forecast and the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey (USD 0.57 and 0.48 billion, respectively).
Florencia Vazquez - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 23 Jan 2013 20:25 |
The merchandise trade surplus was reported to have stood at USD 0.53 billion in December. The reading stood fairly in line with our forecast and the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey (USD 0.57 and 0.48 billion, respectively).
Gas Natural SDG SA : Gas Natural Fenosa is to invest 39 million euros in gas distribution in Andalusia in 2013
Gas Natural SDG SA : Gas Natural Fenosa is to invest 39 million euros in gas distribution in Andalusia in 2013
01/23/2013| 07:11am US/Eastern
Gas Natural Andalucía, the energy multinational's distribution subsidiary, invested 34.6 million euros in Andalusia during the last financial year.
With 388,000 supply points in a network of over 4,700 km in that Spanish region, the company plans to invest close to 10 million euros in the Seville province in 2013.
01/23/2013| 07:11am US/Eastern
Gas Natural Andalucía, the energy multinational's distribution subsidiary, invested 34.6 million euros in Andalusia during the last financial year.
With 388,000 supply points in a network of over 4,700 km in that Spanish region, the company plans to invest close to 10 million euros in the Seville province in 2013.
Tuesday, January 22, 2013
Bechtel awarded FEED contract for a new LNG project in Mozambique
Monday, Jan 21, 2013
HOUSTON, Jan. 18, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Bechtel has been selected by AnadarkoMocambique Area 1, Limitada to perform a front end engineering and design (FEED) for a new liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility in the Republic of Mozambique. This is the first LNG project in the country.
Monday, January 21, 2013
Asia Chart Alert: China: Working-age population falls in 2012; sooner than expected
Asia Chart Alert: China: Working-age population falls in 2012; sooner than expected
Potential growth has likely slowed to 7.0-7.5%, while we expect inflation to exceed consensus levels in 2013.
Potential growth has likely slowed to 7.0-7.5%, while we expect inflation to exceed consensus levels in 2013.
Searching for ‘Safe Spread’ with PIMCO’s Diversified Income Strategy
Searching for ‘Safe Spread’ with PIMCO’s Diversified Income Strategy
· Diversified Income can add yield potential to global credit portfolios while managing risk in different market environments.
· Many investors are reluctant to invest in more volatile asset classes after the financial crisis.
· The search is on for “safe spread” – sectors that we believe are most likely to provide attractive yields while withstanding the fluctuations of a wide range of possible economic scenarios.
· PIMCO’s Diversified Income Strategy, a diversified blend of corporate and emerging market securities, seeks to offer higher yields without taking on excessive additional risk.
· Diversified Income can add yield potential to global credit portfolios while managing risk in different market environments.
· Many investors are reluctant to invest in more volatile asset classes after the financial crisis.
· The search is on for “safe spread” – sectors that we believe are most likely to provide attractive yields while withstanding the fluctuations of a wide range of possible economic scenarios.
· PIMCO’s Diversified Income Strategy, a diversified blend of corporate and emerging market securities, seeks to offer higher yields without taking on excessive additional risk.
Saturday, January 19, 2013
Chile: BCCh kept policy rate unchanged at 5.0% and issued little changed statement
Chile: BCCh kept policy rate unchanged at 5.0% and issued little changed statement
Florencia Vazquez - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 17 Jan 2013 21:47 |
Chile’s central bank decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 5.0% at today’s monetary policy meeting. The decision stood in line with both our forecast and the consensus. January is the 12th straight month of no changes to the policy rate after the monetary authority eased 25bp in January 2012.
Florencia Vazquez - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 17 Jan 2013 21:47 |
Chile’s central bank decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 5.0% at today’s monetary policy meeting. The decision stood in line with both our forecast and the consensus. January is the 12th straight month of no changes to the policy rate after the monetary authority eased 25bp in January 2012.
Friday, January 18, 2013
Focus on West Houston: Energy Corridor, Katy and Westchase
Jan 18, 2013, 5:00am CST
Geographic Spotlight
Focus on West Houston: Energy Corridor, Katy and Westchase
Emily Wilkinson
Assistant Managing Editor-
Houston Business Journal
Home to several Fortune 500 companies as well as prominent private businesses ranging from health care to manufacturing, it’s been boom times lately in west Houston. With several significant projects on the horizon bringing hundreds of thousands of jobs to the area, indicators signal west Houston’s growth momentum will not be slowing anytime soon.
http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/print-edition/2013/01/18/west-houston-energy-corridor-katy.html
Geographic Spotlight
Focus on West Houston: Energy Corridor, Katy and Westchase
Emily Wilkinson
Assistant Managing Editor-
Houston Business Journal
Home to several Fortune 500 companies as well as prominent private businesses ranging from health care to manufacturing, it’s been boom times lately in west Houston. With several significant projects on the horizon bringing hundreds of thousands of jobs to the area, indicators signal west Houston’s growth momentum will not be slowing anytime soon.
http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/print-edition/2013/01/18/west-houston-energy-corridor-katy.html
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
China has the capacity to lead in carbon trading
China has the capacity to lead in carbon trading
Pilot schemes launched this year could be the start of a world-class system — if the country can solve its data-gathering problems, says Qiang Wang.
15 January 2013
The value of the world’s carbon market fell for the first time last year. More than one-third was wiped from the price of carbon credits in a plunge that reflects the continued global economic crisis and uncertainty over the future of emissions-trading schemes.
http://www.nature.com/news/china-has-the-capacity-to-lead-in-carbon-trading-1.12212
Pilot schemes launched this year could be the start of a world-class system — if the country can solve its data-gathering problems, says Qiang Wang.
15 January 2013
The value of the world’s carbon market fell for the first time last year. More than one-third was wiped from the price of carbon credits in a plunge that reflects the continued global economic crisis and uncertainty over the future of emissions-trading schemes.
http://www.nature.com/news/china-has-the-capacity-to-lead-in-carbon-trading-1.12212
Fitch affirms Gas Natural at 'BBB+'; stable outlook
Fitch affirms Gas Natural at 'BBB+'; stable outlook
Wed Jan 16, 2013 7:17am EST
Jan 16 - Fitch Ratings has affirmed Gas Natural SDG, S.A.'s Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB+' and removed it from Rating Watch Negative (RWN). The Outlook is Stable. A full list of rating actions is below.
The rating actions follow the approval by the Spanish government of a set of measures on 27 December 2012 designed to prevent generation of future tariff deficit (TD) in the electricity system in Spain. The current regulatory scheme presents slight changes compared with the draft measures published in September 2012. The main difference is that a flat 7% tax has been fixed to all power generation compared with the previous proposal of 6%. Fitch does not expect this to have a significant impact on Gas Natural's credit metrics. The other approved measures were largely unchanged.
Wed Jan 16, 2013 7:17am EST
Jan 16 - Fitch Ratings has affirmed Gas Natural SDG, S.A.'s Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB+' and removed it from Rating Watch Negative (RWN). The Outlook is Stable. A full list of rating actions is below.
The rating actions follow the approval by the Spanish government of a set of measures on 27 December 2012 designed to prevent generation of future tariff deficit (TD) in the electricity system in Spain. The current regulatory scheme presents slight changes compared with the draft measures published in September 2012. The main difference is that a flat 7% tax has been fixed to all power generation compared with the previous proposal of 6%. Fitch does not expect this to have a significant impact on Gas Natural's credit metrics. The other approved measures were largely unchanged.
Tuesday, January 15, 2013
Germany: 2013 Will be Better Than it Looks
Germany: 2013 Will be Better Than it Looks
Evelyn Herrmann
The German economy grew 0.7% in 2012 compared to the previous year. After adjusting for calendar effects, German GDP grew 0.9% in real terms for 2012, according to the preliminary estimates released by the German federal statistics office yesterday. We typically watch and forecast seasonally and calendar-adjusted growth. The average annual growth would imply a quarterly contraction of 0.3% q/q in Q4 2012, in line with our forecasts.
Evelyn Herrmann
The German economy grew 0.7% in 2012 compared to the previous year. After adjusting for calendar effects, German GDP grew 0.9% in real terms for 2012, according to the preliminary estimates released by the German federal statistics office yesterday. We typically watch and forecast seasonally and calendar-adjusted growth. The average annual growth would imply a quarterly contraction of 0.3% q/q in Q4 2012, in line with our forecasts.
Turkey: Unemployment rate declined despite the record high participation rate
Turkey: Unemployment rate declined despite the record high participation rate
In October, unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.1% while non-farm unemployment rate decreased 0.2pp to 11.4%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rate decreased to 9.3% from 9.4% in September and non-farm unemployment rate declined 0.3pp to 11.7%. The unemployment rate declined in spite of the new record high participation rate which increased to 50.7% from 50.3% in September.
In October, unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.1% while non-farm unemployment rate decreased 0.2pp to 11.4%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rate decreased to 9.3% from 9.4% in September and non-farm unemployment rate declined 0.3pp to 11.7%. The unemployment rate declined in spite of the new record high participation rate which increased to 50.7% from 50.3% in September.
Monday, January 14, 2013
US: Open-mouth Operations at Work
US: Open-mouth Operations at Work
Yelena Shulyatyeva and Bricklin Dwyer
Chairman Bernanke stuck very close to the party line during his conversation today at the University of Michigan, and did not alter or deviate from that message. When given the chance to push back on the market's response to the December FOMC minutes, he didn't. Unlike some of the FOMC participants we heard from yesterday, Chairman Bernanke did not provide any guidance on the timing of asset purchases. In our view, he is likely in the camp of FOMC members who “emphasized the need for considerable policy accommodation but did not state a specific time frame or total for purchases.” The Chairman said that QE has been effective in the past and that the latest round looks like it is working, but cautioned that it is too early to make an assessment. He still sees the labour market as weak, the economy as fragile and the cost of letting unemployment persist at current levels enormous. He reiterated two main tools are at the Committee's disposal: forward guidance, otherwise known as “open-mouth operations,” and QE. Going forward, the FOMC will need to consider how effective these policies are and evaluate their costs and benefits.
Yelena Shulyatyeva and Bricklin Dwyer
Chairman Bernanke stuck very close to the party line during his conversation today at the University of Michigan, and did not alter or deviate from that message. When given the chance to push back on the market's response to the December FOMC minutes, he didn't. Unlike some of the FOMC participants we heard from yesterday, Chairman Bernanke did not provide any guidance on the timing of asset purchases. In our view, he is likely in the camp of FOMC members who “emphasized the need for considerable policy accommodation but did not state a specific time frame or total for purchases.” The Chairman said that QE has been effective in the past and that the latest round looks like it is working, but cautioned that it is too early to make an assessment. He still sees the labour market as weak, the economy as fragile and the cost of letting unemployment persist at current levels enormous. He reiterated two main tools are at the Committee's disposal: forward guidance, otherwise known as “open-mouth operations,” and QE. Going forward, the FOMC will need to consider how effective these policies are and evaluate their costs and benefits.
UK: House Hunting
UK: House Hunting
David Tinsley
One of the interesting and potentially useful developments in the UK recently has been some signs that the housing market might be firming up. The latest indicators in this regard will bear watching carefully over the first few months of this year.
David Tinsley
One of the interesting and potentially useful developments in the UK recently has been some signs that the housing market might be firming up. The latest indicators in this regard will bear watching carefully over the first few months of this year.
US Economy to Grow 2.5% This Year: Fed's Evans
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100375995
US Economy to Grow 2.5% This Year: Fed's Evans
Published: Monday, 14 Jan 2013 | 2:14 AM ET
The U.S. economy is expected to grow by 2.5 percent in 2013, improving to 3.5 percent growth in 2014, top Fed official Charles Evans said on Monday.
US Economy to Grow 2.5% This Year: Fed's Evans
Published: Monday, 14 Jan 2013 | 2:14 AM ET
The U.S. economy is expected to grow by 2.5 percent in 2013, improving to 3.5 percent growth in 2014, top Fed official Charles Evans said on Monday.
Sunday, January 13, 2013
What Are Gold Bugs Afraid Of?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100375832
What Are Gold Bugs Afraid Of?
Published: Sunday, 13 Jan 2013 | 10:37 PM ET
By: Michael Ivanovitch | President, MSI Global
The price of an ounce of fine gold entered this Millennium at $271.1, one of the lowest gold prices in the previous 20 years. Since then, the price of gold has soared more than five-fold. Over the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 16.5 percent. Corrected for inflation, gold returned a whopping 480 percent, while real returns on major stock market indices in the U.S. and in the euro area were negative - in double digits.
What Are Gold Bugs Afraid Of?
Published: Sunday, 13 Jan 2013 | 10:37 PM ET
By: Michael Ivanovitch | President, MSI Global
The price of an ounce of fine gold entered this Millennium at $271.1, one of the lowest gold prices in the previous 20 years. Since then, the price of gold has soared more than five-fold. Over the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 16.5 percent. Corrected for inflation, gold returned a whopping 480 percent, while real returns on major stock market indices in the U.S. and in the euro area were negative - in double digits.
Oil Curbed by 'Fountain' of North American Supply: Survey
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100375837
Oil Curbed by 'Fountain' of North American Supply: Survey
Published: Sunday, 13 Jan 2013 | 10:14 PM ET
By: Sri Jegarajah
Market Reporter, CNBC Asia Pacific
Oil prices may rise this week, boosted by expectations of further weakness in the U.S. dollar against its European counterpart and on indications global growth is improving, according to CNBC's latest survey of oil market sentiment, though gains may be limited by increased supply from North America.
Oil Curbed by 'Fountain' of North American Supply: Survey
Published: Sunday, 13 Jan 2013 | 10:14 PM ET
By: Sri Jegarajah
Market Reporter, CNBC Asia Pacific
Oil prices may rise this week, boosted by expectations of further weakness in the U.S. dollar against its European counterpart and on indications global growth is improving, according to CNBC's latest survey of oil market sentiment, though gains may be limited by increased supply from North America.
Turkey: The narrowing in the current account deficit has neared to an end
Turkey: The narrowing in the current account deficit has neared to an end
At USD 4.5bn, November's current account deficit was lower than the market consensus and our forecast (USD 4.8bn). Consequently, 12-month cumulative current account deficit declined to USD 51.9bn, from USD 52.8bn in October. Non-energy current account balance on a 12-month cumulative basis turned into a surplus of USD 0.4bn, from a deficit of USD 0.8bn in October. 12-month cumulative net gold exports increased to USD 5.6bn, from USD 5.2bn in October, and continued to contribute to the narrowing in the current account deficit.
At USD 4.5bn, November's current account deficit was lower than the market consensus and our forecast (USD 4.8bn). Consequently, 12-month cumulative current account deficit declined to USD 51.9bn, from USD 52.8bn in October. Non-energy current account balance on a 12-month cumulative basis turned into a surplus of USD 0.4bn, from a deficit of USD 0.8bn in October. 12-month cumulative net gold exports increased to USD 5.6bn, from USD 5.2bn in October, and continued to contribute to the narrowing in the current account deficit.
Friday, January 11, 2013
Chile: The government will announce measures to make exports more competitive.
11 January 2013
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 11 Jan 2013 06:00 |
Chile: The government will announce measures to make exports more competitive.
CHILE
Government will announce measures to make exports more competitive. Finance Minister Felipe Larrain affirmed that next week the government will unveil competitive measures. According to Larrain, the upcoming measures are not necessarily on the exchange rate.
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 11 Jan 2013 06:00 |
Chile: The government will announce measures to make exports more competitive.
CHILE
Government will announce measures to make exports more competitive. Finance Minister Felipe Larrain affirmed that next week the government will unveil competitive measures. According to Larrain, the upcoming measures are not necessarily on the exchange rate.
Lowest vacancy rate on the German office market in 10 years
Lowest vacancy rate on the German office market in 10 years
Andreas Trumpp
Overall take-up above average thanks to strong fourth quarter
January 10, 2013, Munich – In Q4 2012, office tenants were once again ready to do business and hit the market with a year-end spurt generating take-up of around 2.77 million m² in six German office markets: Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt am Main, Hamburg, Munich and Stuttgart. Andreas Trumpp, Head of Research at Colliers International, Germany, says, “Although we experienced a decline of around 9 percent from 2011, it was to be expected considering the above-average number of major deals we recorded that year. At the end of the day, we even managed to somewhat exceed our expectations for 2012.” Results for the last office leasing year were up by around 126,000 m² from the ten-year average of 2.64 million m². In addition, a considerable portion of the drop in sales can be attributed to the fact that owner-occupier take-up decreased by half.
http://www.colliers.com/en-gb/frankfurt/insights/market-news/20130109_german-office-market_q42012
Andreas Trumpp
Overall take-up above average thanks to strong fourth quarter
January 10, 2013, Munich – In Q4 2012, office tenants were once again ready to do business and hit the market with a year-end spurt generating take-up of around 2.77 million m² in six German office markets: Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt am Main, Hamburg, Munich and Stuttgart. Andreas Trumpp, Head of Research at Colliers International, Germany, says, “Although we experienced a decline of around 9 percent from 2011, it was to be expected considering the above-average number of major deals we recorded that year. At the end of the day, we even managed to somewhat exceed our expectations for 2012.” Results for the last office leasing year were up by around 126,000 m² from the ten-year average of 2.64 million m². In addition, a considerable portion of the drop in sales can be attributed to the fact that owner-occupier take-up decreased by half.
http://www.colliers.com/en-gb/frankfurt/insights/market-news/20130109_german-office-market_q42012
Thursday, January 10, 2013
Exceptional 4Q pushes Global Commercial Real Estate Investment Volumes to $436B in 2012
Exceptional 4Q pushes Global Commercial Real Estate Investment Volumes to $436B in 2012
Jones Lang LaSalle preliminary numbers show U.S. fiscal cliff tax concerns and pent-up demand lifted 4Q volumes to end the year ahead of 2011
● Preliminary global volumes beat forecasts to end 2012 at $436 billion, a slight increase over 2011’s $435 billion and a 36 percent increase over 2010.
Jones Lang LaSalle preliminary numbers show U.S. fiscal cliff tax concerns and pent-up demand lifted 4Q volumes to end the year ahead of 2011
● Preliminary global volumes beat forecasts to end 2012 at $436 billion, a slight increase over 2011’s $435 billion and a 36 percent increase over 2010.
Brazil: Inflation finishes 2012 above target
Brazil: Inflation finishes 2012 above target
Gustavo Arruda - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 10 Jan 2013 14:34 |
IPCA inflation ended 2012 at 5.84%, and we see more upward pressure going forward. The annual reading was above the 4.5% official target centre, although still below the target tolerance ceiling of 6.5%. In the annual comparison, inflation will continue to increase in the coming months, in our view. We fear it may breach the inflation target ceiling of 6.5% already during the first half of the year.
Gustavo Arruda - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 10 Jan 2013 14:34 |
IPCA inflation ended 2012 at 5.84%, and we see more upward pressure going forward. The annual reading was above the 4.5% official target centre, although still below the target tolerance ceiling of 6.5%. In the annual comparison, inflation will continue to increase in the coming months, in our view. We fear it may breach the inflation target ceiling of 6.5% already during the first half of the year.
Mexico: Growth decelerated into Q4
Mexico: Growth decelerated into Q4
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 10 Jan 2013 16:20 |
Mexico’s monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) expanded 0.2% m/m (sa), slightly weaker than our 0.3% m/m forecast. On an annual basis, growth accelerated from 1.2% y/y in September to 4.3% y/y in October.
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 10 Jan 2013 16:20 |
Mexico’s monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) expanded 0.2% m/m (sa), slightly weaker than our 0.3% m/m forecast. On an annual basis, growth accelerated from 1.2% y/y in September to 4.3% y/y in October.
Chile: Monthly survey of economists will be the highlight.
CHILE
Yesterday, the survey of financial market participants showed few changes. The only change in the report was the 12 months inflation, which edged up to 3.0% from 2.9% in the last report.
Yesterday, the survey of financial market participants showed few changes. The only change in the report was the 12 months inflation, which edged up to 3.0% from 2.9% in the last report.
Wednesday, January 9, 2013
Working for the Man
Working for the Man
Julia Coronado - Market Economics
US Daily Spotlight | 10 Jan 2013 00:15 |
The corporate earnings season got off to a positive start on Wednesday, with Alcoa beating market expectations in Q4 and raising its 2013 outlook. The company cited an improving Chinese economy and its own cost-cutting measures and productivity gains. A number of equity analysts are fairly bullish on the prospects for US corporations, although this is an outlook increasingly tied to the global outlook, with sometimes minimal positive spillovers to, or dependency on, the US economy.
Julia Coronado - Market Economics
US Daily Spotlight | 10 Jan 2013 00:15 |
The corporate earnings season got off to a positive start on Wednesday, with Alcoa beating market expectations in Q4 and raising its 2013 outlook. The company cited an improving Chinese economy and its own cost-cutting measures and productivity gains. A number of equity analysts are fairly bullish on the prospects for US corporations, although this is an outlook increasingly tied to the global outlook, with sometimes minimal positive spillovers to, or dependency on, the US economy.
Berlin Office Space Market Makes Record Result
BERLIN OFFICE SPACE MARKET MAKES RECORD RESULT
9 Jan, 2013, Frankfurt
• Vacancy rate falls further
• Prime rent on upward trajectory
The Berlin office space market has charted a record result for the second year in succession. Last year's very strong showing of 685,000 sqm of total rented office space was eclipsed in 2012 with a floor space turnover of 693,000 sqm. The rental volume for 2012 is therefore 47% above the average for the last ten years. In the second and third quarters in particular, Berlin companies proved very active in terms of leasing. Floor space turnover stood at an above-average 190,000 sqm over the two summer quarters. A solid result was achieved at the end of the year too, however, with a quarterly turnover of 173,000 sqm.
http://www.cushwake.com/cwglobal/jsp/newsDetail.jsp?Country=DE&Language=EN&repId=c57000015p
9 Jan, 2013, Frankfurt
• Vacancy rate falls further
• Prime rent on upward trajectory
The Berlin office space market has charted a record result for the second year in succession. Last year's very strong showing of 685,000 sqm of total rented office space was eclipsed in 2012 with a floor space turnover of 693,000 sqm. The rental volume for 2012 is therefore 47% above the average for the last ten years. In the second and third quarters in particular, Berlin companies proved very active in terms of leasing. Floor space turnover stood at an above-average 190,000 sqm over the two summer quarters. A solid result was achieved at the end of the year too, however, with a quarterly turnover of 173,000 sqm.
http://www.cushwake.com/cwglobal/jsp/newsDetail.jsp?Country=DE&Language=EN&repId=c57000015p
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
US LNG EXPORT PROJECTS—2 (Conclusion): Projected financial performance supports
http://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volume-111/issue-1/transportation/us-lng-export-projects-2-conclusion-projected.html
US LNG EXPORT PROJECTS—2 (Conclusion): Projected financial performance supports building at least a few
01/07/2013
John Paisie
JEA Consulting Group
Toledo, Ohio
The projected financial performance of proposed US LNG export plants supports the building and commissioning of at least a few of them. The proposed plants, however, face large risks. Potential supply-demand shifts in both the US and destination markets could result in price shifts much greater than the 10% used in this article's sensitivity analysis.
US LNG EXPORT PROJECTS—2 (Conclusion): Projected financial performance supports building at least a few
01/07/2013
John Paisie
JEA Consulting Group
Toledo, Ohio
The projected financial performance of proposed US LNG export plants supports the building and commissioning of at least a few of them. The proposed plants, however, face large risks. Potential supply-demand shifts in both the US and destination markets could result in price shifts much greater than the 10% used in this article's sensitivity analysis.
Turkey: IP Recovers Strongly
Turkey: IP Recovers Strongly
At 11.3% y/y, November’s industrial production index was above the market consensus (%9.9) but below our more optimistic forecast (13.5%). On a seasonally adjusted basis, industrial production increased by 1.5% m/m in November, following a 2.6% m/m decline in October. The decline in October was mainly due to the working day and holiday effects.
At 11.3% y/y, November’s industrial production index was above the market consensus (%9.9) but below our more optimistic forecast (13.5%). On a seasonally adjusted basis, industrial production increased by 1.5% m/m in November, following a 2.6% m/m decline in October. The decline in October was mainly due to the working day and holiday effects.
Chile: No inflation in December
Chile: No inflation in December
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 08 Jan 2013 14:31 |
Consumer prices were flat in December (-0.03% m/m; consensus and BNP Paribas: 0.1%). As a consequence, the year-on-year measure of headline inflation fell from 2.13% y/y in November to end the year at 1.49% y/y, its lowest level since June 2010. Indeed, all key measures of inflation fell in 2012 and ended the year below the floor of the central bank’s 3.0%±1pp implicit target range.
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 08 Jan 2013 14:31 |
Consumer prices were flat in December (-0.03% m/m; consensus and BNP Paribas: 0.1%). As a consequence, the year-on-year measure of headline inflation fell from 2.13% y/y in November to end the year at 1.49% y/y, its lowest level since June 2010. Indeed, all key measures of inflation fell in 2012 and ended the year below the floor of the central bank’s 3.0%±1pp implicit target range.
Frankfurt office market 2012: Highest rental volumes for five years
Frankfurt office market 2012: Highest rental volumes for five years
7 Jan, 2013, Frankfurt
• Strong fourth quarter sees space turnover on the Frankfurt office market climb over 500,000 sqm once more
• Rental volumes 11% over ten-year average
• Banks and financial services strongest rental group in 2012 despite all the uncertainties on the financial markets
http://www.cushwake.com/
7 Jan, 2013, Frankfurt
• Strong fourth quarter sees space turnover on the Frankfurt office market climb over 500,000 sqm once more
• Rental volumes 11% over ten-year average
• Banks and financial services strongest rental group in 2012 despite all the uncertainties on the financial markets
http://www.cushwake.com/
Monday, January 7, 2013
Chile: Growth surprised up in November
Chile: Growth surprised up in November
Gustavo Arruda - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 07 Jan 2013 18:09 |
The monthly proxy for real GDP, Imacec, advanced 5.5% y/y in November. This is above our forecast (5.1%) and the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey (5.2% y/y). On a 3-month moving average basis, growth decelerated to 5.7% y/y from 6.0% y/y. In monthly terms, economic activity expanded 1.3% m/m s.a. in November. Our forecast looked for more modest expansion (0.4% m/m s.a.).
Gustavo Arruda - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 07 Jan 2013 18:09 |
The monthly proxy for real GDP, Imacec, advanced 5.5% y/y in November. This is above our forecast (5.1%) and the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey (5.2% y/y). On a 3-month moving average basis, growth decelerated to 5.7% y/y from 6.0% y/y. In monthly terms, economic activity expanded 1.3% m/m s.a. in November. Our forecast looked for more modest expansion (0.4% m/m s.a.).
Saturday, January 5, 2013
The 100 Top-Performing Large Hedge Funds
The 100 Top-Performing Large Hedge Funds
By Bloomberg Markets & Bloomberg Rankings - Jan 4, 2013
Bloomberg Markets Magazine
The February 2013 issue of Bloomberg Markets magazine contains our annual rankings of the world's richest hedge funds. The following 100 comprise our list of best-performing hedge funds managing $1 billion or more. Our rankings are based on data compiled by Bloomberg specialist Anibal Arrascue and information supplied by hedge-fund research firms, hedge funds and investors. Assets and returns are for the 10 months ended on Oct. 31, 2012. Click here for a PDF and here for the accompanying story.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-03/the-100-top-performing-large-hedge-funds.html
By Bloomberg Markets & Bloomberg Rankings - Jan 4, 2013
Bloomberg Markets Magazine
The February 2013 issue of Bloomberg Markets magazine contains our annual rankings of the world's richest hedge funds. The following 100 comprise our list of best-performing hedge funds managing $1 billion or more. Our rankings are based on data compiled by Bloomberg specialist Anibal Arrascue and information supplied by hedge-fund research firms, hedge funds and investors. Assets and returns are for the 10 months ended on Oct. 31, 2012. Click here for a PDF and here for the accompanying story.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-03/the-100-top-performing-large-hedge-funds.html
Thursday, January 3, 2013
Exporting Nat Gas, The Future of Energy?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100353101
Exporting Nat Gas, The Future of Energy?
Published: Thursday, 3 Jan 2013 | 6:27 PM ET
By: Lee Brodie
The abundance of nat gas in the United States has turned into an embarrassment of riches.
But, because of the enormous supply, prices have languished.
"Here in the US it sells for less than four bucks per thousand cubic feet," Cramer explained. "But the rest of the world? Natural gas sells for $12 to $15 per thousand cubic feet in Europe and Asia."
Exporting Nat Gas, The Future of Energy?
Published: Thursday, 3 Jan 2013 | 6:27 PM ET
By: Lee Brodie
The abundance of nat gas in the United States has turned into an embarrassment of riches.
But, because of the enormous supply, prices have languished.
"Here in the US it sells for less than four bucks per thousand cubic feet," Cramer explained. "But the rest of the world? Natural gas sells for $12 to $15 per thousand cubic feet in Europe and Asia."
Tuesday, January 1, 2013
Central London Office Market Proves Resilient in 2012
CENTRAL LONDON OFFICE MARKET PROVES RESILIENT IN 2012
31 Dec, 2012, London
Despite a backdrop of a continued economic uncertainty, the Central London office market has proved resilient over the year according to the latest report from real estate consultants Cushman & Wakefield, which predicts that take up of new office space in Central London for the year to December will be 7.3 million sq ft, marginally below the 2011figure of 7.8 million sq ft. This latest report highlights the emergence of the Media & Tech and also insurance sectors as key drivers of demand, and that the continued growth of these sectors combined with a peak in lease expiry events in 2015, will result in a healthier leasing market over the next 12 months as occupiers are forced to consider their office space options.
http://www.cushwake.com/cwglobal/jsp/newsDetail.jsp?Language=EN&repId=c57000005p&Country=GB
31 Dec, 2012, London
Despite a backdrop of a continued economic uncertainty, the Central London office market has proved resilient over the year according to the latest report from real estate consultants Cushman & Wakefield, which predicts that take up of new office space in Central London for the year to December will be 7.3 million sq ft, marginally below the 2011figure of 7.8 million sq ft. This latest report highlights the emergence of the Media & Tech and also insurance sectors as key drivers of demand, and that the continued growth of these sectors combined with a peak in lease expiry events in 2015, will result in a healthier leasing market over the next 12 months as occupiers are forced to consider their office space options.
http://www.cushwake.com/cwglobal/jsp/newsDetail.jsp?Language=EN&repId=c57000005p&Country=GB
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