Chile: Growth surprised up in November

Chile: Growth surprised up in November

Gustavo Arruda - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 07 Jan 2013 18:09 |

The monthly proxy for real GDP, Imacec, advanced 5.5% y/y in November. This is above our forecast (5.1%) and the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey (5.2% y/y). On a 3-month moving average basis, growth decelerated to 5.7% y/y from 6.0% y/y. In monthly terms, economic activity expanded 1.3% m/m s.a. in November. Our forecast looked for more modest expansion (0.4% m/m s.a.).

Despite the positive surprise in November, economy is softer than previous quarters. On a 3m/3m (saar) basis, economic activity is growing at +3.7%% q/q (saar). This is below-potential (+5.0%) and compares to +5.0% q/q (saar) in Q3’2012 and +7.6% q/q (saar) in Q2’2012.

Gustavo Arruda
Economic Research