S. Korea: Industrial Production (Dec 2012)

S. Korea: Industrial Production (Dec 2012)

Dominic Bryant - Market Economics
Asian Instant Insight | 30 Jan 2013 03:00 |

South Korean industrial data surprised to the upside in December. Consumer durables production remained a driving force, partly reflecting further strength in autos as it continues to recover from a strike in August. However, business confidence remains below average so the recent strength in production is unlikely to be sustained. Moreover, capital goods production continues to contract and GDP was soft in Q4, so the recent strength in some parts of manufacturing is not widespread. We continue to forecast a 25bp rate cut in February, although recent monthly data have increased the risk of a delay until the March meeting.

S. Korea: Industrial Production (Nov 2012)

S. Korea: Industrial Production (Nov 2012)

Mole Hau - Market Economics
Asian Instant Insight | 28 Dec 2012 04:22 |

South Korean industrial data surprised significantly to the upside in November. The export-orientated electronics and auto sectors led the move higher as other components were broadly flat. With a fall in working days in December due to the Presidential election and Christmas holidays likely to have pushed forward production, the next release is likely to see some payback. The inventories/shipment ratio is also high and business confidence below average, suggesting overall production will remain below trend levels in the near term. We continue to expect a 25bp rate cut in January, as concerns over the health of the domestic economy outweigh evidence of improving conditions abroad.