Money, Italian Proverb

Money is money's brother.

- Italian Proverb

Market Statistics & Trends : 1st Quarter 2013

http://www.thespaceplace.net/market-trends/

Market Insight
Market Statistics & Trends : 1st Quarter 2013
Below is information about the trends in San Francisco Bay Area office space rents, leasing and vacancy rates.

San Francisco

Asking Rent

.	Asking Rent Direct Space / Full Service	Asking Rent Sublet Space / Full Service
End 1Q2013	$39.00	$37.84
End 4Q2012	$38.37	$35.89
End 3Q2012	$36.88	$34.18
End 2Q2012	$36.16	$33.93
End 1Q2012	$36.63	$32.47
End 4Q2011	$32.33	$31.32
End 3Q2011	$30.83	$28.48
End 2Q2011	$30.29	$24.76
End 1Q2011	$29.46	$25.12
End 4Q2010	$28.58	$23.64
End 3Q2010	$29.78	$21.28

Renshaw Bay to provide calm in credit storm

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f500c4ca-9196-11e2-b839-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2oulR8fcu

March 29, 2013 7:43 pm
Renshaw Bay to provide calm in credit storm
By David Oakley and Patrick Jenkins

When Bill Winters, the former number two at JPMorgan Chase, found himself a slick office for his new investment venture last year, there was a seedy downside. The site in an up-and-coming street in the heart of London’s West End overlooked a brothel. The view – now obscured by frosted glass – was a colourful change of vista compared with the bland City offices he overlooked at JPMorgan’s European headquarters.

Jobless claims rise, but GDP data shows more growth

Jobless claims rise, but GDP data shows more growth

By Jason Lange
WASHINGTON | Thu Mar 28, 2013 12:43 pm EDT

(Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose last week, but not enough to suggest the labor market recovery was taking a step back.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/28/us-usa-economy-jobless-idUSBRE92R0DN20130328

Natural Gas: Time to Short or Not Just Yet?

Natural Gas: Time to Short or Not Just Yet?

Published: Thursday, 28 Mar 2013 | 9:32 PM ET
By: Drew Sandholm
Producer

Natural gas shot up 20 percent in the first quarter, its fourth straight quarterly gain, begging the question — can this hot streak continue?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100601504

Chile: Signs of Growth Slowdown

Chile: Signs of Growth Slowdown

Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 28 Mar 2013 13:33 |

Manufacturing output and retail sales growth decelerated in February and the unemployment rate edged up two ticks to 6.2%. February data are providing partial evidence that the slowdown in activity from unsustainable levels that the central bank has been anticipating (and hoping for) may be finally happening. As such, they reduce the likelihood that monetary tightening will be required in the months ahead to cool the economy.

U.S. High Yield Default Insight

U.S. High Yield Default Insight

The U.S. high yield par default rate continues to track closely to the 2012 year-end rate of 1.9%, At the end of February, it slipped modestly to 1.8% (mostly due to the market's larger size), and we project a similar level for the first quarter. March has added filings from gaming operator Revel AC, Inc. and phone directory publisher, Dex Media, and two missed interest payments from oil and gas company GMX Resources and healthcare concern Rotech. These add an estimated $1.5 billion to the year's default tally of $2.8 billion through February. An update of default, recovery rates and other metrics can be found by clicking on the report link below.

Fitch Ratings

Natural Gas Prices on the Rise, Challenging 'Cheap' Label

Natural Gas Prices on the Rise, Challenging 'Cheap' Label

Published: Wednesday, 27 Mar 2013 | 11:27 AM ET
By: Javier E. David, Giovanny Moreano

Those "cheap" natural gas prices everyone keeps talking about? They may not stay that way much longer.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100597089

Fee Scorecard for High-Yield Real Estate Funds

http://www.realert.com/

Fee Scorecard for High-Yield Real Estate Funds

High-Yield Debt

Chile – FinMin Larrain proposes new cut on stamp duty.

Chile – FinMin Larrain proposes new cut on stamp duty.

Finance Minister Felipe Larrain announced yesterday that the government is currently weighting a new cut on the stamp duty (tax on loans). The FinMin said that the plan looks to cut the rate to 0.2% from 0.4%, the third reduction during Pinera’s administration (it was 1.2% when he entered office). This is done in an effort to reduce tax evasion. He expects the tax proposal to be approved in the next couple of months.

Separately, Larrain mentioned that the government is always concerned about the appreciation of the peso, and it is responding to the currency’s strength the best it can.

Houston Makes Top 5 as Boom Lures Foreigners: Real Estate

Houston Makes Top 5 as Boom Lures Foreigners: Real Estate
By Dan Levy - Mar 26, 2013

International real estate investors are falling in love with Houston, a fast-expanding energy hub that’s luring buyers from Toronto to Tel Aviv seeking properties with lower costs and higher returns than buildings in the priciest U.S. cities.

Firms from outside the U.S. acquired $2.83 billion of Houston (OFCRAHOU) office buildings in the past three years, according to Real Capital Analytics Inc. They were the largest net buyers of any investor class, spending four times more than U.S. real estate investment trusts, which ranked second. Last year, Houston for the first time was among the top five global cities in an annual survey by the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate that dates back to 1994.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-26/houston-makes-top-5-as-boom-lures-foreigners-real-estate.html

Central of Bank Turkey: Surprise cut on the ceiling rate

Central of Bank Turkey: Surprise cut on the ceiling rate

The CBRT kept its policy rate and the lower-end of the interest rate corridor unchanged at 5.50% and 4.50% respectively, but unexpectedly cut the ceiling rate by 100bps. Accordingly, o/n lending rate to primary dealers was reduced to 7.00% (the rest of the market to 7.50%). In addition, reserve option coefficients were raised by 0.1 points for the upper tranches, which would increase gross reserves by USD 0.9bn.

Pro: Trading the Natural Gas Rally

Pro: Trading the Natural Gas Rally

Published: Monday, 25 Mar 2013 | 10:42 AM ET

It's the rally you probably haven't heard about.

The price of natural gas has spiked to its highest level since 2011, advancing 17 percent year-to-date, as supplies declined for 14 consecutive weeks.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100588163

Energy Boom Ripples Through US Economy

Energy Boom Ripples Through US Economy

Published: Monday, 25 Mar 2013 | 10:15 AM ET
By: John W. Schoen, NBC News

The boom in new oil and natural gas flowing through U.S. pipelines is beginning to ripple through the wider American economy.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100587821

SG Commodities Review: Copper

SG Commodities Review: Copper

Robin Bhar
2013.03.20

■ Copper prices have lost their anchor at $8,000/t. Reasons for the sharp fall include weak physical demand, soaring exchange stocks of copper, disappointing data from China, and lack of Chinese buying after the Lunar New Year holidays concluded in mid-February.

Bakken Emerges as Contender for US Oil Drilling Crown

Bakken Emerges as Contender for US Oil Drilling Crown

Published: Saturday, 23 Mar 2013 | 12:00 AM ET
By: Javier E. David
Special to CNBC.com

In the resurgence of US energy production, one spillover effect has been to put relatively obscure places on the map. One of those is Bakken, an oil hub that some believe could challenge the Gulf Coast's prodigious crude output.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100579131

Cramer’s Refiner Plays

Cramer’s Refiner Plays

Published: Friday, 22 Mar 2013 | 6:25 PM ET
By: Lee Brodie
Producer

"If you happen to be a refiner, you're probably doing very well right now," said Jim Cramer.

The Mad Money host believes that US based refineries are in the sweet spot, here and now.

That's largely because there has been an explosion in domestic oil production due to recent discoveries in places such as the Bakken and the Eagle Ford. That's helped moderate the price of US crude oil, also known as WTI, to about $93.

Brent, which is the benchmark, is about $15 higher. (The difference is known as the spread.)

Currently refiners are benefitting from that spread because they're able to buy US crude oil at the lower prices, refine it and then sell their products at levels based on the higher priced Brent.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100583806

Why the Nat Gas Rally Could Run Out of Gas

Why the Nat Gas Rally Could Run Out of Gas

Published: Friday, 22 Mar 2013 | 10:36 AM ET

Natural gas has been ablaze. The commodity has doubled over the past eleven months, and just this week traded up to its highest level since September 2011.

So can the rally continue?

Well, one potential problem lies on the chart horizon.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100582414

SG Commodities Review: Carbon

SG Commodities Review: Carbon

Paolo Coghe & Stephanie Aymes
2013.03.20

■ After the crucial success in the ENVI vote on February 19, the path to the formal approval process for backloading will continue and the Parliament and Council, along with the European Commission, will enter into ‘trialogue’ negotiations to arrive at a common text before the plenary vote scheduled for 15 April at the European Parliament.

SG Commodities Review: Thermal coal

SG Commodities Review: Thermal coal

Paolo Coghe
2013.03.20

■ Throughout 2012 the mining sector started to rediscover some of the investment discipline that had disappeared during the commodity bull run of the last decade, causing an oversupply of coal, exacerbated by a global economic slowdown, and in turn leading to a material price slide and current depressed price levels.

SG Commodities Review: The four consequences of the US shale gas revolution

SG Commodities Review: European Gas and LNG

Thierry Bros
2013.03.20

The four consequences of the US shale gas revolution

1/ US coal is displacing Russian gas in Europe

The US shale gas revolution pushed Cheap US coal and is displacing expensive gas for power generation in Europe. But, faced with record low European gas demand, Norway managed to increase its production, forcing Gazprom to act as the swing supplier.

SG Commodities Review: European Gas and LNG

SG Commodities Review: European Gas and LNG

Thierry Bros
2013.03.20

■ Norway exported a record 107.6 bcm of pipe gas in 2012, according to the gas system operator Gassco.

SG Commodities Review: US Natural Gas

SG Commodities Review: US Natural Gas

Laurent Key
2013.03.20

■ SG research’s Cal 13 price forecast was revised 20 cents higher vs last quarter at $3.70, due to the bullish withdrawals experienced at the end of the winter.

SG Commodities Review: Oil

SG Commodities Review: Oil

Michael Wittner
2013.03.20

■ Strong growth in Chinese demand is driving 1.1 Mb/d of global consumption growth this year. Total growth in non-OPEC supply, including OPEC NGLs, comes to 1.4 Mb/d, driven by 1.0 Mb/d growth in US liquids output. Saudi Arabia has been cutting proactively and aggressively to balance the market.

Office Vacancy Declines In Major Markets In Q1 2013

Office Vacancy Declines In Major Markets In Q1 2013

Biggest Drops in Denver and San Francisco Office Markets. Moderate Decline in Industrial Availability.

Los Angeles, March 21, 2013 – Office vacancy rates declined or held steady in most major U.S. markets during Q1 2013, according to preliminary data from CBRE Group, Inc. Six of the 12 largest markets showed declines in office vacancy, led by Denver and San Francisco, while two markets remained stable. Industrial availability* continued to decrease moderately in major U.S. markets, according to CBRE.

(Read More: Office Vacancy Declines In Major Markets In Q1 2013)

Turkey May Block Use of Natural Gas for Cyprus Bailout

Turkey May Block Use of Natural Gas for Cyprus Bailout

Published: Thursday, 21 Mar 2013 | 3:13 PM ET

Turkey could challenge any move by Cyprus to speed up offshore natural gas exploration as a way of attracting desperately needed investment to save its teetering economy, senior Turkish officials said Thursday.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100579091

First Insights: China: HSBC flash manufacturing PMI rebounds in March

Economics Research | Asia Ex-Japan

21 March 2013

First Insights: China: HSBC flash manufacturing PMI rebounds in March

The HSBC China flash manufacturing PMI rebounded to 51.7 in March from 50.4 in February, much stronger than expected (Consensus: 50.8; Nomura: 51.0). The 1.3 percentage point (pp) jump in March cannot be explained by seasonal factors alone. Since the HSBC PMI data started in 2005, there have been four years when the lunar new year holiday fell in February; in these years, the PMI rose by an average of 0.6pp in March.

Colony Capital Securities Fraud Losses

Colony Capital Securities Fraud Losses

We are currently investigating claims of investors of Colony Capital. From approximately July, 2008 through July, 2010, Gary Snisky and David Burch of Colony Capital, LLC and other related companies such as Colony Capital Holdings and Colony Capital Group (“Colony”), carried out a scheme to defraud investors by investing his clients in a so-called “private equity fund” secuties. The clients lost at least $3.2 million with the promise of an annual rate of return on their investment based on the misrepresentations and omissions of the risks of making the investment.

http://www.jpedersonlaw.com/blog/2013/03/18/colony-capital-securities-fraud-loss/

Chile: All Signs Point to Buoyant Domestic Demand

Chile: All Signs Point to Buoyant Domestic Demand

Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 18 Mar 2013 17:17 |

Data releases today confirm that domestic demand strength underpinned a rapid rise in real output and widened the current account deficit in Q4. Recent data indicate that early in Q1 domestic demand continued to grow at a pace that likely exceeded the economy’s potential, increasing the risk of overheating.

Power Shift: Energy Boom Dawning in America

Power Shift: Energy Boom Dawning in America

Published: Monday, 18 Mar 2013 | 11:28 AM ET
By: Patti Domm
CNBC Executive News Editor

Randy Foutch calls it a renaissance, but when you listen to the veteran Texas oilman and others describe America's nascent energy boom, it sounds more like a miracle.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100563497

China: Rising risks of financial crisis

Asia Special Report: China: Rising risks of financial crisis

· China is displaying the same three symptoms that Japan, the US and parts of Europe all showed before suffering financial crises: a rapid build-up of leverage, elevated property prices and a decline in potential growth.

Turkey: December unemployment rate

Turkey: December unemployment rate

Temporary rise in the unemployment rate

In December, seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased 0.1pp to 9.6%, and non-farm unemployment rate increased 0.2pp to 11.8%, on our calculations. The employment and participation rates remained strong at 46.0% and 50.9% respectively, only a tad below the record high levels of 46.1% and 51.0% in November.

Turkey: Strong increase in fiscal revenues and spending in February

Turkey: Strong increase in fiscal revenues and spending in February

Central government primary balance was TRY 3.5bn in February, significantly lower compared to the surplus of TRY 6.0bn in February 2012. The deterioration in the fiscal balance came despite stronger budget revenues, which increased 18% y/y. On the other hand, non-interest expenditures rose much faster by 34% y/y. The additional spending in February stems from payments to contractors and transfers to social security institution.

Housing Recovery 'Fundamentally Strong': Lennar CEO

Housing Recovery 'Fundamentally Strong': Lennar CEO

Published: Friday, 15 Mar 2013 | 11:26 AM ET
By: Diana Olick
CNBC Real Estate Reporter

Despite being headquartered in one of the states hardest hit by the housing crash, the CEO of Miami-based Lennar Homes said he is bullish both on the rental side of the business and the single family side. No wonder, Lennar recently announced it was getting into multi-family apartment construction.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100558148

How Are the SBA’s Loan Programs Doing?

How Are the SBA’s Loan Programs Doing?
By Karen E. Klein
March 14, 2013

Question: I read your 2011 article about U.S. Small Business Administration loans and wondered what is going on with the SBA loan program for 2013? Are there any new loan programs this year?

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-03-14/how-are-the-sbas-loan-programs-doing

Shale Oil: A Deep Dive Into Implications for the Global Economy and Commodity Investors

Viewpoints
March 2013

Shale Oil: A Deep Dive Into Implications for the Global Economy and Commodity Investors
Greg E. Sharenow, Mihir P. Worah

• The shale oil revolution in the U.S. is a classic example of high prices and improving technology spurring methods of commodity production that may have been historically unimaginable.

• Although growth in U.S. shale production has not yet been sufficient to meaningfully weaken oil prices, it has had a notable impact on long-term price expectations, on both the upside and downside.

• After acting as a significant brake on economic activity during the run-up in prices during the last decade, greater energy availability will at the very least be a positive for global growth.

http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Shale-Oil-A-Deep-Dive-Into-Implications-for-the-Global-Economy-and-Commodity-Investors.aspx

When Will the US Energy Boom Help You Out at the Gas Pump?

When Will the US Energy Boom Help You Out at the Gas Pump?

Published: Thursday, 14 Mar 2013 | 2:39 PM ET
By: Javier E. David
Special to CNBC.com

First, the good news: the U.S. energy sector is being modernized at a breakneck pace, with cleaner and cheaper fuels predicted to drive down prices and to eventually reduce the economy's dependency on foreign oil.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100554510

An Energy Coup for Japan: ‘Flammable Ice’

An Energy Coup for Japan: ‘Flammable Ice’

Published: Wednesday, 13 Mar 2013 | 8:43 AM ET
By: Hiroko Tabuchi

TOKYO — Japan said Tuesday that it had extracted gas from offshore deposits of methane hydrate — sometimes called "flammable ice" — a breakthrough that officials and experts said could be a step toward tapping a promising but still little-understood energy source.

The gas, whose extraction from the undersea hydrate reservoir was thought to be a world first, could provide an alternative source of energy to known oil and gas reserves. That could be crucial especially for Japan, which is the world's biggest importer of liquefied natural gas and is engaged in a public debate about whether to resume the country's heavy reliance on nuclear power.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100545740

KKR Said to Debut Real Estate Fund With $500 Million

KKR Said to Debut Real Estate Fund With $500 Million
By Devin Banerjee & Sabrina Willmer - Mar 13, 2013

KKR & Co. (KKR), the buyout firm run by Henry Kravis and George Roberts, is preparing to market its first fund dedicated to real estate investments with an initial $500 million committed to the pool, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-12/kkr-said-to-debut-real-estate-fund-with-500-million.html

How the US Can Start Exporting Energy: Chevron CEO

How the US Can Start Exporting Energy: Chevron CEO

Published: Tuesday, 12 Mar 2013 | 5:30 PM ET
By: Justin Menza

Chevron will be making major investments to increase its oil and gas production this year, but only a fraction of those investments will be made in the U.S., CEO John Watson told CNBC's "Closing Bell" on Tuesday.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100547355

'Dr. Copper' Has Raised Doubts About Recovery

'Dr. Copper' Has Raised Doubts About Recovery

Published: Tuesday, 12 Mar 2013 | 1:24 PM ET
By: Jeff Cox
CNBC.com Senior Writer

Both the stock market rally and economic recovery are missing what historically has been a key element - a house call from "Dr. Copper."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100546529

Bond bubble may be closer to popping

With the stock market heating up, there is growing concern that the long-lasting bond bubble might finally be ready to pop. As major stock indexes like the Dow and S&P 500 soar to record highs, investors are confidently leaving the safety of bonds to chase higher returns in equities. Consequently, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has climbed past 2 percent, hitting an 11-month high. As the economy slowly recovers, this shift toward riskier assets is likely to continue.

Adding to the shift, the Federal Reserve is expected to halt further stimulus measures, paving the way for long-term interest rates to climb naturally. Market strategists predict a steady rise in yields, potentially reaching 3.2 percent by 2015. This upward trend in rates could spell trouble for the housing market, as higher mortgage rates would likely slow down home buying and refinancing, ultimately squeezing the banks.

Other global factors are also pushing rates higher. Aggressive money-printing in Japan and Europe is strengthening the U.S. dollar, while ongoing political battles in Washington over the debt ceiling raise the threat of another credit downgrade. The transition might not be a sudden crash like previous financial crises, but it certainly signals a bumpy road ahead for bond investors.

Based on the article: Paul R. La Monica, "Bond bubble may be closer to popping" (CNNMoney) • Read the original post

최근 주식 시장이 뜨겁게 달아오르면서, 오랜 기간 이어져 온 채권 시장의 거품이 꺼질 수 있다는 우려가 커지고 있습니다. 다우와 S&P 500 지수가 연일 최고치를 기록하면서 투자자들은 안전한 채권보다는 수익성이 높은 주식으로 눈을 돌리고 있습니다. 그 결과, 미국 10년물 국채 금리는 최근 11개월 만에 가장 높은 수준인 2퍼센트 위로 올라섰습니다. 경제가 천천히 회복됨에 따라 투자자들의 이러한 위험 선호 현상은 당분간 계속될 것으로 보입니다.

여기에 미국 연방준비제도가 시장에 돈을 더 푸는 부양책을 멈출 것으로 예상되면서 금리 상승세는 더욱 뚜렷해질 전망입니다. 전문가들은 10년물 국채 금리가 꾸준히 올라 2015년에는 3.2퍼센트까지 도달할 수 있다고 분석합니다. 이렇게 금리가 오르면 주택 담보 대출 금리도 함께 뛰어올라 부동산 시장의 활기를 떨어뜨리고 은행들에게도 큰 부담이 될 수 있습니다.

뿐만 아니라, 일본과 유럽의 돈 풀기 정책으로 인한 달러 가치 상승, 그리고 미국의 국가 부채를 둘러싼 정치권의 갈등도 금리를 끌어올리는 불안 요소로 꼽힙니다. 과거 금융 위기처럼 한순간에 시장이 무너지는 충격은 아닐지라도, 안전하다고 믿었던 채권 시장에 곧 찬바람이 불어올 수 있습니다.

참고자료: Paul R. La Monica, "Bond bubble may be closer to popping" (CNNMoney) • 기사 원문 읽기

German HICP inflation decelerates to 1.8%

■ German HICP inflation decelerates to 1.8%

In 2012, German HICP remained broadly stable around 2% yoy. Since the beginning of the year, HICP inflation decelerated slightly from 2.0% yoy in December to 1.8% yoy in February, thereby hitting a 27-month. Most of the fall can be attributed to lower food inflation, as we observed a fall from 4.5% yoy to 3.1% yoy. Looking ahead, we expect the German HICP to average above 2% in 2013 on the back of a relatively strong wage growth. We should also see higher inflation rates in Germany, compared to the euro area average, once VAT hikes drop out of annual comparison in H2 2013.

UK data bring back the fear of a “triple dip”

■ UK data bring back the fear of a “triple dip”

January manufacturing output contracted along with industrial production (-1.2% mom). Most of the fall in the industrial production can be attributed to the maintenance issues in the North Sea production platforms; which already contributed to the deterioration in activity in Q4 2012. In addition, the heavy snow in January had a strong negative impact on the manufacturing output. As these factors are temporary and set to be reversed, it is too early to expect a technical recession in Q1 2013.Looking ahead, the sharp fall of sterling since the beginning of the year will play some role in helping the manufacturers.

Norway's Arctic idyll shivers at oil plans

Norway's Arctic idyll shivers at oil plans

By Alister Doyle and Balazs Koranyi
SVOLVAER, Norway | Tue Mar 12, 2013 9:04 am EDT

(Reuters) - Oil companies seeking new Arctic areas for exploration face a battle with environmentalists, fishermen and hotel owners over Norwegian islands where jagged snow-capped peaks rise sheer from the sea.

With oil production falling to a 25-year low this year and the state depending on oil revenues, Norway's ruling Labour Party is warming to drilling in Lofoten's pristine waters, setting up the issue as the year's biggest political fight ahead of elections in September.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/12/us-energy-arctic-idUSBRE92B0I720130312

Turkey: The end of rebalancing

Turkey: The end of rebalancing

At USD 5.6bn, January's current account deficit was slightly higher than the market consensus and our forecast (both at USD 5.3bn). Consequently, 12-month cumulative c/a deficit declined USD 0.1bn to USD 46.8bn. Non-energy current account balance remained unchanged at USD 5.5bn on a 12-month cumulative basis. The revision of Turkstat's tourism revenue estimations was reflected to BoP statistics, and as a result, 2012 c/a deficit was revised down to USD 46.9bn from USD 48.9bn, or 5.9% of GDP. Net errors and omissions were revised from USD 4bn to USD 2bn for 2012.

South Africa: Fourth quarter current account deficit narrows to 6.5% of GDP from 6.8% in Q3

South Africa: Fourth quarter current account deficit narrows to 6.5% of GDP from 6.8% in Q3

South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed slightly in the fourth quarter of 2012, falling to R212.6bn from R215bn in Q3. Coupled with the q/q increase of R91.9bn in fourth quarter GDP, the result was that the current account deficit as a percentage of GDP narrowed from 6.8% in Q3 (revised up from 6.4%) to 6.5%. In addition to the trade deficit narrowing from R87.3bn in the third quarter to R86bn, net service, income and current transfer payments also declined in the final quarter, declining from R127.7bn in Q3 to R126.6bn. The net result of these declines was a R2.4bn reduction in the current account deficit in the fourth quarter. Expressed as a percentage of GDP, the current account deficit averaged 6.3% in 2012, a considerable deterioration from 3.4% in 2011.

Japan to Begin Test Production for Frozen Gas Locked in Seabed

Japan to Begin Test Production for Frozen Gas Locked in Seabed
By Tsuyoshi Inajima & Yuji Okada - Mar 11, 2013

Japan, which has almost no natural energy resources of its own, will begin the world’s first offshore drilling operation this week to extract frozen natural gas locked under the seabed.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-11/japan-to-begin-test-production-for-frozen-gas-locked-in-seabed.html

The Paper World of Brookfield Asset Management

http://sirf-online.org/2013/03/11/paper-world-of-brookfield-asset-management/

The Paper World of Brookfield Asset Management
By: Roddy Boyd | March 11, 2013

Enter the name of Toronto-based public company Brookfield Asset Management into a search engine and it delivers more than 1 million results. The global conglomerate, whose annual sales exceed $18 billion, controls ports in England, owns Manhattan’s prestigious World Financial Center and sells Chicago a fair measure of its electricity. Yet the massive enterprise is better known for what it owns than how it operates.

Would You Please Yield?

JOURNAL REPORTS Updated March 11, 2013, 5:23 pm ET
Would You Please Yield?
Amid Low Returns From Bonds, Sovereign Wealth Funds Move Aggressively Into Real Estate

By PETER EVANS

At the start of 2010, the world's largest sovereign wealth fund had no property investments to speak of.

Three years later, Norway's Government Pension Fund Global, which manages the oil-rich nation's wealth through Norges Bank Investment Management, has committed around $6.7 billion to property. The investments are mainly focused on prime office and retail space in major European capitals, and Norges Bank has said it plans to spend billions more over the next decade.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324678604578340630485929040.html

Oil, Copper Are the Short-Term Commodity Plays: Goldman

Oil, Copper Are the Short-Term Commodity Plays: Goldman

Published: Monday, 11 Mar 2013 | 2:57 PM ET
By: Patti Domm
CNBC Executive News Editor

Goldman Sachs analysts see a robust near-term outlook for commodities, saying they think the selloff in February amid concerns about China's growth was overdone.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100543022

Eco Analysis - China's recovery is more gradual than expected (W. Yao)

Eco Analysis - China's recovery is more gradual than expected (W. Yao)

■ China's food-fuelled inflation and housing-driven growth

China's February CPI increased more than expected by 3.2%yoy, but will most likely fall back again in March. Money and credit growth moderated in February but remained accommodative. Meanwhile, growth data for January and February combined were mixed. Industrial production disappointed, while fixed asset investment powered ahead, thanks to the incredibly buoyant property market. Retail sales weakened considerably, but the main cause was probably the laudable anti-corruption campaign waged by the new leaders. Overall, the data still suggest that the recovery is on track, albeit more gradual than initially anticipated.

Wei YAO

China's ragtag shale army a long way from revolution

China's ragtag shale army a long way from revolution

By Chen Aizhu
BEIJING | Sun Mar 10, 2013 6:36pm EDT

(Reuters) - China's plans to unlock what could be the world's biggest shale gas reserves risk running further off track after 16 firms awarded exploration rights in the latest auction lacked one core skill - not one has drilled a gas well before.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/10/us-china-shale-idUSBRE9290GR20130310

Turkey: Signs of Life in IP

Turkey: Signs of Life in IP

January's industrial production was 2.1% y/y, slightly below the market and our expectations of 2.5%. On a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis, IP increased by 2.3% m/m, following a decline of 3.5% m/m in December. January industrial production index shows that CBRT's monetary easing has started to reflect on manufacturing activity. Strong January IP figure combined with robust credit growth, confidence indices and PMI, points that the pickup in the economic activity will continue in Q1.

Chile: All quite on the inflation front

Chile: All quite on the inflation front

Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 08 Mar 2013 13:37 |

Consumer prices rose only 0.1% m/m in February, less than the consensus 0.3% m/m call and our own 0.2% m/m projection. Annual inflation dropped to 1.3% y/y, sinking further below the 2% floor of BCCh's target band (Chart 1).

Unemployment rate falls to lowest level since 2008

AMERICA'S COMEBACK
Unemployment rate falls to lowest level since 2008
By Annalyn Kurtz @CNNMoney March 8, 2013: 12:33 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

Hiring picked up in February, helping to bring the unemployment rate down to its lowest level since December 2008.

The U.S. economy added 236,000 jobs in February, according to a Labor Department report released Friday. That's much stronger growth than in January, when employers hired a revised 119,000 workers.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/03/08/news/economy/february-jobs-report/index.html

Can Natural Gas Become the New Gasoline?

Can Natural Gas Become the New Gasoline?

Published: Friday, 8 Mar 2013 | 11:27 AM ET
By: Javier E. David
Special to CNBC.com

Natural gas is abundant, clean and far cheaper than diesel. That has the U.S. transportation and auto industries looking for ways to kick their dependence on dirtier fossil fuels.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100537924

Analysis: Renewables turn utilities into dinosaurs of the energy world

Analysis: Renewables turn utilities into dinosaurs of the energy world

By Geert De Clercq
PARIS | Fri Mar 8, 2013 4:13am EST

(Reuters) - Every new solar panel installed on European rooftops chips away at power utilities' centralized production model. Unless they reinvent themselves soon, these giants risk becoming the dinosaurs of the energy market.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/08/us-utilities-threat-idUSBRE92709E20130308

Chile: Central Bank Governor Vergara flagged increased risks, due to faster-than-expected growth.

Chile
Central Bank Governor Vergara flagged increased risks, due to faster-than-expected growth.

Central Bank Governor Rodrigo Vergara said that domestic demand, driven by both strong consumer spending and large investments in the mining industry, has been the driver of Chile’s rapid growth. He noted that mining investments accounted for less than 15% of total investment in 2003, and now accounts for 25% of total investments. Mining output’s share of GDP is 15%, while copper accounts for 60.0% of exports.

US Gas Exports Will Shake Up Global Market

US Gas Exports Will Shake Up Global Market

Published: Thursday, 7 Mar 2013 | 6:32 AM ET
By: Patti Domm
CNBC Executive News Editor

Despite objections, the U.S. is heading down the road to export natural gas, and that could ultimately help shake up world energy markets.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100530615

How the US Shale Gas Boom Could Derail China

How the US Shale Gas Boom Could Derail China

Published: Thursday, 7 Mar 2013 | 3:41 AM ET
By: Matt Clinch
News Assistant

With oil production at a twenty year high and predictions of a manufacturing renaissance for the U.S. economy, one of the world's largest investment banks has detailed how the "shale revolution" will negatively affect emerging markets such as China.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100531212

Texas Oil Production May Hit Record by 2020, Regulator Says

Texas Oil Production May Hit Record by 2020, Regulator Says
By Edward Klump

Texas is poised to more than double daily oil production by 2020, surpassing a 1972 record with surging output from the Eagle Ford shale and Permian Basin, the state’s petroleum regulator said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-06/texas-oil-production-may-hit-record-by-2020-regulator-says.html

WTI Oil Trades Near Two-Day Low as U.S. Crude Stockpiles Climb

WTI Oil Trades Near Two-Day Low as U.S. Crude Stockpiles Climb
By Ben Sharples

West Texas Intermediate oil traded near the lowest level in two days after U.S. crude stockpiles rose almost five times more than forecast. The Brent pipeline system remained shut a fifth day.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-06/wti-oil-trades-near-two-day-low-as-u-s-crude-stockpiles-climb.html

Chile: Growth was rapid in January

Daily Latam Spotlight - 6 March 2013

Chile: Growth was rapid in January

The monthly proxy for real GDP, Imacec, expanded 6.7% y/y in January. This is in line with our 6.8% y/y forecast and slightly above the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey of 6.5% y/y. Growth was rapid across the board. Mining activity expanded 8.4% y/y, manufacturing advanced 4.4% y/y and services rose 6.9% y/y. The three-month moving average of GDP growth was 5.6% y/y in January, the same as in the month before. In monthly terms, real output rose 0.1% m/m in January, and was 17.0%, saar above Q4.

Chile’s Paradox of Prosperity

March 06, 2013

Chile’s Paradox of Prosperity

The country’s economy is thriving, but rising expectations and gaping inequalities sap the popularity of President Sebastián Piñera’s conservative government.

By Jonathan Kandell

Thirty years ago, as Latin America was succumbing to the debt crisis, few nations suffered as much as Chile. The country still bore the scars of the bloody military coup that claimed the lives of former president Salvador Allende and some 3,000 supporters a decade earlier. The debt crisis hit when the economy was undergoing wrenching change from the radical free-market policies pursued by the regime of General Augusto Pinochet. The results were painful: Economic output collapsed by 14 percent in 1982, unemployment soared to more than 30 percent, nearly half the population lived below the poverty line, and the current-account deficit was running at a rate of 12 percent of GDP.

http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/Article/3163684/Chiles-Paradox-of-Prosperity.html

China's copper anxiety and the Glencore-Xstrata delay

China's copper anxiety and the Glencore-Xstrata delay
By Shelley DuBois, writer-reporter
March 6, 2013: 12:49 PM ET

China needs copper in ways that more mature markets don't. So they are taking their time reviewing the commodities mega-merger.

http://management.fortune.cnn.com/2013/03/06/china-copper-glencore-xstrata/

Turkey: Inflation - as expected

Turkey: Inflation - as expected

At 0.3% m/m, February's CPI inflation was slightly below the market consensus and our forecast (both at 0.4% m/m). Consequently, annual inflation declined 0.3pp to 7.0%. The lower-than-expected CPI was mainly due to food and clothing prices. Annual food inflation fell from 6.85% in January to 5.60% in February, partly correcting the 3pp rise previous month. The decline in clothing prices was higher than the seasonal averages at 6.4% m/m in February.

Sequester Politics, Freddie Mac Earnings, Home on the Range

RATES
FI SPECIAL
March 4, 2013

Sequester Politics, Freddie Mac Earnings, Home on the Range

■ This is the economy under the sequester.

The $85bn of sequester cuts have now officially gone into effect. Two Senate bills - one from either party - aimed at reworking or providing more flexibility for the cuts, failed votes of cloture and are provisionally dead. To sidestep the next hurdle of the fiscal crisis, House Republicans are said to be drafting a bill that will fund the government for the remainder of the fiscal year. On the upside, this is an attempt to remove the threat of a government shutdown before the existing continuing resolution (CR) expires on March 27th. On the downside, it probably means there is virtually no possibility that a compromise exchanging tax reform for entitlement reform will be forthcoming from this Congress.

Eco Analysis - Asia Round-up: Property market tightening in China sours the mood (K. Baader, W. Yao)

ECONOMICS
ECO ANALYSIS
March 4, 2013

Eco Analysis - Asia Round-up: Property market tightening in China sours the mood (K. Baader, W. Yao)

Asian stock markets started the week on a sour note, reacting to news of additional measures in mainland China to restrain real estate prices. This was arguably also the main factor driving down the Australian dollar, although the economic news reports this morning were also weak. The main exception to stock market weakness was Japan, where stocks are trading firmer despite a fractionally stronger yen. The relative stability of the yen is noteworthy, given that the proposed new BoJ governor, Mr Kuroda, reiterated in his confirmation hearing his strongly dovish bias, arguing for accelerated and broadened asset purchases. Lastly, an unexpectedly weak inflation reading in South Korea in our view boosted the chances of a rate cut by the Bank of Korea, a view that appears to be shared by the market, given the sharp decline in two-year government bond yields this morning.

Eco Analysis - China National People\'s Congress meeting preview (W. Yao)

ECONOMICS
ECO ANALYSIS
March 4, 2013

Eco Analysis - China National People\'s Congress meeting preview (W. Yao)

The annual plenary session of the National People's Congress (NPC) will convene on 5 March and close on 17 March. There is more to watch than just the routine Government Work Report and fiscal budget. New government leaders - including the President, Premier and top Ministers - will be appointed and formally take the helm. On the reform front, aside from affirmative rhetoric, we expect two concrete steps.

Chile: Steady Rate as the Only Option, Despite Concerns

Chile: Steady Rate as the Only Option, Despite Concerns

Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 01 Mar 2013 19:19 |

Neutral rate and stance. We read the minutes of the 14 February monetary policy meeting as broadly neutral regarding the short-term outlook, ruling out any changes in the policy rate for now. According to the minutes, the policy rate remains within a neutral range and the decision to keep it steady at 5.0% was unanimous.

Securities commissioner sues Longmont private equity fund

Securities commissioner sues Longmont private equity fund
By Aldo Svaldi
The Denver Post

Posted: 03/01/2013

Colorado Securities Commissioner Fred Joseph has filed a complaint against a Longmont private-equity fund and its principals on allegations they defrauded more than 20 investors out of $3.2 million, according to an announcement Friday.

http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_22698228/securities-commissioner-sues-longmont-private-equity-fund

First Insights: China: Another round of policy tightening in the property sector

Economics Research | Asia Ex-Japan
01 March 2013

First Insights: China: Another round of policy tightening in the property sector

The government announced today a set of new tightening policies in the property market, including: (1) imposing a 20% capital gain tax on property transactions; (2) the PBoC to raise the down payment requirement and mortgage rate in cities, where property prices have risen quickly; and (3) extending the "local resident" requirement to cities, where property prices have increased swiftly and (4) for cities with "local resident" requirements, such policies shall be implemented in a more restrictive way.

Chile: Happy 2013 Beginning for Activity

Chile: Happy 2013 Beginning for Activity

Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 28 Feb 2013 15:06 |

According to data releases today, the economy began the year on a strong note. In January, manufacturing output surprised to the upside, retail sales expanded rapidly and unemployment fell to a six-year low. The monthly proxy for real GDP (Imacec) due out next Tuesday is thus set to reflect rapid economic expansion in January. We project a 6.8% y/y rise in the Imacec in the first month of the year. Rapid growth supports our view that fiscal and monetary policies need to turn less accommodative to reduce the risk of overheating. Chile continues to exhibit strong growth