Turkey: December unemployment rate
Temporary rise in the unemployment rate
In December, seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased 0.1pp to 9.6%, and non-farm unemployment rate increased 0.2pp to 11.8%, on our calculations. The employment and participation rates remained strong at 46.0% and 50.9% respectively, only a tad below the record high levels of 46.1% and 51.0% in November.
The increase in unemployment rate is due to the 37k decline in employment, mainly in the agriculture sector. On the other hand, non-farm payrolls increased 34k, mostly driven by the manufacturing and trade sectors. Construction and transportation sectors’ payrolls contracted slightly.
We see the soft December unemployment data as a correction to the rapid rise in employment figures during September-November, in which employment increased by a total of 676k. Therefore, today's unemployment data are unlikely to have an impact on the CBRT's policy stance. We see the deterioration in December’s employment data only temporary and expect the labour market conditions to continue to improve in parallel with a stronger domestic economic activity in Q1 2013.
Emre Tekmen
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