Eco Analysis - UK economy shaping up for a strong Q2 (H. Amourda, B. Hilliard)
Very few data were released today. Spanish registered unemployment change declined by nearly 98.3k people ahead of the summer. In the UK, the BRC survey points to a rebound in sales in May while the construction PMI rose to 50.8 from 49.4 on the back of a strong jump in the housing component. On Wednesday, we expect the May services PMI to post some strong gains in Spain and Italy, while the divergence between the euro area and the UK should pause in May.
Showing posts with label H. Amourda. Show all posts
Showing posts with label H. Amourda. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 4, 2013
Tuesday, April 16, 2013
Eco Analysis - German ZEW survey fell in April (H. Amourda, B. Hilliard)
Eco Analysis - German ZEW survey fell in April (H. Amourda, B. Hilliard)
■ German ZEW survey fell in April
Waiting for the WEO of the IMF, some key economic data were released this Tuesday. The German ZEW survey (economic sentiment) fell for the first time since November 2012, from 48.5 to 36.3 in April. On the inflation side, the final euro aggregate CPI inflation confirmed the flash estimate at 1.7% yoy while the UK CPI printed at 2.8% yoy in March. Looking ahead, we will watch closely the UK labour data and MPC minutes due to be released on Wednesday.
The German ZEW survey reported a fall in both current situation (down 4.4 points to 9.2) and economic sentiment (down 12.2 points to 36.3). The Cyprus bail-in and questions on the euro area crisis management probably affected investors' sentiment. However, the balance of answers is still positive and points to an improvement of the economic growth in the next six months. Moreover, it is too early to expect a continued downward trend in sentiment given some recent positive hard data, but confirms our view of weaker growth in Q2.
■ German ZEW survey fell in April
Waiting for the WEO of the IMF, some key economic data were released this Tuesday. The German ZEW survey (economic sentiment) fell for the first time since November 2012, from 48.5 to 36.3 in April. On the inflation side, the final euro aggregate CPI inflation confirmed the flash estimate at 1.7% yoy while the UK CPI printed at 2.8% yoy in March. Looking ahead, we will watch closely the UK labour data and MPC minutes due to be released on Wednesday.
The German ZEW survey reported a fall in both current situation (down 4.4 points to 9.2) and economic sentiment (down 12.2 points to 36.3). The Cyprus bail-in and questions on the euro area crisis management probably affected investors' sentiment. However, the balance of answers is still positive and points to an improvement of the economic growth in the next six months. Moreover, it is too early to expect a continued downward trend in sentiment given some recent positive hard data, but confirms our view of weaker growth in Q2.
Monday, April 8, 2013
Eco Analysis - February German IP expands by 0.5% (H. Amourda)
Eco Analysis - February German IP expands by 0.5% (H. Amourda)
Only a few key economic data were released this Monday. German Industrial production expanded by 0.5% mom in February, while the number for January was revised down markedly. For Q1, growth in industrial production is likely to be around 0, up with Q4, when it fell by 2.6% qoq. Based on a stronger recovery in private consumption, we still expect a robust rebound in GDP in Q1. In the euro area, the April Sentix investor survey fell further from -10.6 in March to -17.3. We now look forward the bulk of European IP data set to be released this week.
Following the stronger than expected factory orders last week, at 2.3% mom, February industrial production surprised on the upside as well. Indeed, the industrial production printed at 0.5% mom (cons: 0.3). Looking at the components, the construction sector contracted by 2.7% mom, possibly affected by poor weather conditions. The Bundesbank report shows some pressures from the energy component which rose from -0.4% mom to 3.9% mom in February, while the manufacturing component increased as well by 0.5% mom from -1.1% mom. Also noteworthy, the January figure was revised down from 0% mom to -0.6% mom. Looking ahead, our scenario remains for a technical rebound in GDP growth in Q1 2013.
Only a few key economic data were released this Monday. German Industrial production expanded by 0.5% mom in February, while the number for January was revised down markedly. For Q1, growth in industrial production is likely to be around 0, up with Q4, when it fell by 2.6% qoq. Based on a stronger recovery in private consumption, we still expect a robust rebound in GDP in Q1. In the euro area, the April Sentix investor survey fell further from -10.6 in March to -17.3. We now look forward the bulk of European IP data set to be released this week.
Following the stronger than expected factory orders last week, at 2.3% mom, February industrial production surprised on the upside as well. Indeed, the industrial production printed at 0.5% mom (cons: 0.3). Looking at the components, the construction sector contracted by 2.7% mom, possibly affected by poor weather conditions. The Bundesbank report shows some pressures from the energy component which rose from -0.4% mom to 3.9% mom in February, while the manufacturing component increased as well by 0.5% mom from -1.1% mom. Also noteworthy, the January figure was revised down from 0% mom to -0.6% mom. Looking ahead, our scenario remains for a technical rebound in GDP growth in Q1 2013.
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