_Economy and Finance

Howard Marks: Distressed Debt and Real Estate Investment Outlook (Source: ValueWalk, December 17, 2013 ) Howard Marks, Chairman of Oaktree Capital Group, shared his views at the 2013 Goldman Sachs Financial Conference regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s tapering policy. He argued that markets had already priced in much of the tapering effect, so the actual implementation might not cause a sharp rise in yields. Marks noted that the current economic recovery is weaker than past cycles, with moderate inflation. He estimated that the 10-year Treasury yield would remain between 3% and 4%, regardless of tapering. Institutional investors such as U.S. pension funds and endowments typically target returns of 7.5–8%. However, with Treasuries yielding 1–3%, investment-grade bonds around 4%, and equities at 6–7%, investors are increasingly turning to alternatives. Marks highlighted that hedge funds have struggled to deliver such returns, while private equity and private real estate can gen...

Commercial Real Estate Recovery to Accelerate in 2014 English 한국어 Hello. I will provide a clean and straightforward summary of the report outlining the 2014 commercial real estate market trends. The core message of this report is that the commercial real estate recovery is gaining significant momentum. Global investment volumes are expected to show a solid 10 percent growth next year. While the leasing market has been somewhat cautious compared to the investment boom, this imbalance is smoothly narrowing, with the United States market leading the way. Moving past a stagnant 2013, the leasing market is looking forward to a pleasant growth of 5 to 10 percent in 2014. The flow of the United States office market is exceptionally good. As demand expands beyond the tech and energy sectors into various fields, and new supply continues to shrink, prime downtown areas are creating highly favorable conditions for landlords. The influence of the Mil...

http://www.propertywire.com/news/global-news/global-office-predictions-2014-201312178577.html Steady growth predicted for the global office market in 2014 Tuesday, 17 December 2013 The global office market is poised for slow steady growth in 2014, while 2015 should be more robust as recovery takes hold and business gains renewed confidence, according to a new report.

A new Global Credit Perspectives by Mark Kiesel is available on pimco.com . Key Points: · An improving outlook for U.S. housing will be constructive for consumer spending, confidence and jobs. · There are many ways to invest directly and indirectly in companies that should benefit from higher housing prices, a pickup in home repairs and remodeling, and residential investment spending. · We continue to favor select investments in homebuilders, building materials, appliance manufacturers, lumber, home improvement, banks, title insurance, mortgage origination and servicing, and non-Agency mortgage-backed securities.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101276543 Looking to play the rental market? Blackstone wants you Published: Monday, 16 Dec 2013 | 3:23 PM ET By: Diana Olick | CNBC Real Estate Reporter It is yet another step in the evolution of the single-family rental market: a new lending platform by one of the biggest names in the trade, Blackstone Group. After investing close to $7 billion in rental properties through its Invitation Homes unit, Blackstone is offering cash to smaller investors wanting to get into the game. The firm is in the closing process on the first deals.

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/index.cfm Release Date: December 16, 2013 | Full Report Release Date: Early Spring 2014 | CORRECTION | Report Number: DOE/EIA-0383ER(2014) This release is an abridged version of the Annual Energy Outlook that highlights changes in the AEO Reference case projections for key energy topics. The Early Release includes data tables for the Reference case only. The AEO2014 full version will be released early Spring 2014. Download the AEO2014 Early Release Report

http://www.property-magazine.eu/london-office-market-good-prospects-from-2014-23396.html UK 13. Dezember 2012 London office market: Good prospects from 2014 In its latest research paper, Henderson’s c. £12.4 billion Property business, examines prospects for the Central London office market. The report notes that City Fringe, West End and Midtown sub-markets have benefitted from strong take up by technology, media and telecommunications firms during an otherwise difficult year for the domestic economy. Core City take up has been dominated by lettings from the insurance sector with very subdued activity from banking. Underlying City take-up has been relatively stable over the last 12 months or so, at around 75% of the long run average. This sub-par level of activity is expected to persist while low confidence and volatility persists in the markets.

http://www.multihousingnews.com/cities/san-francisco/another-office-tower-trades-hands-in-san-francisco-as-local-market-soars/1004094912.html Dec. 13, 2013 Another Office Tower Trades Hands in San Francisco as Local Market Soars By Alex Girda, Associate Editor As the San Francisco office market becomes one of the healthiest local markets in the entire country, the rush is on for investors to capitalize on the impressive appeal of the San Francisco Bay Area before 2013 draws to a close. We’ve recently reported on the major deals completed in the city for high-profile office assets, and now KBS Real Estate Investment Trust III is adding to an already impressive tally of major real estate transactions completed just weeks before the end of Q4. The public non-traded REIT recently shelled out $121 million for an office building in the city’s South Financial District.

http://business.financialpost.com/2013/12/11/remax-forecasts-exceptionally-healthy-real-estate-market-in-2014/ Re/Max forecasts ‘exceptionally healthy’ real estate market in 2014 Canadian Press | December 11, 2013 7:40 AM ET More from Canadian Press MISSISSAUGA, Ont. — Canada can expect an “exceptionally healthy” housing market in 2014 thanks to improvements in the overall economy that helped produce a surge in the latter half of this year, a leading real estate group said Wednesday.

DECEMBER 12, 2013 Propane demand hits a record high for November http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=14151 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report Note: Product supplied is a proxy for consumption. Propane is produced from natural gas at processing plants and from crude oil at refineries. Propane produced from natural gas has been the fastest-growing component of overall U.S. propane supply. Propane production in the United States has set record highs on an almost weekly basis in 2013 as a result of increased oil and natural gas drilling. A record corn crop harvest has increased the demand for propane (shown in the graph above as product supplied) in the central United States. Expanded propane production met this agricultural demand, while continuing to supply other markets.

2014 US Credit Outlook - Living in a Lean World Mark Howard, Colleen Watson, Ashish Jain - Credit The Weekly Credit Pulse | 12 Dec 2013 16:47 | 1131 Kb Summary 2014 US Credit Market Roadmap US credit spreads are likely to grind tighter through much of 2014, but the path will not be linear or easy. Decent fundamentals and solid inflows are offset by rising interest rates, suppressed volatility, and skinny valuations. Total returns are expected to be modest in 2014 given our rates forecast, but excess returns are expected to be decidedly positive. We forecast 13bp of cash IG spread tightening and 58bp of HY tightening by year-end.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/forbespr/2013/12/12/cit-survey-finds-middle-market-commercial-real-estate-executives-cautiously-optimistic-but-feeling-the-strain-of-the-taxes-and-regulations/ 12/12/2013 @ 9:11AM CIT Survey Finds Middle Market Commercial Real Estate Executives Cautiously Optimistic But Feeling The Strain Of The Taxes And Regulations 60% Say Their Go-Forward Orientation Is Opportunistic, With a Mix of Challenges and Opportunities 60% Say the Current Tax and Regulatory Climate Is Placing a Strain on Their Performance 40% Say They Are Negotiating Harder With State and Local Governments to Obtain Tax Credits NEW YORK – December 12, 2013 – Middle market commercial real estate executives are expressing cautious optimism toward the market and are looking to take advantage of long-term investment opportunities. However, the majority are finding that the current tax and regulatory climate is placing a strain on the performance of their companies. These are some of the findi...

The problem with Mr. Obama is that you get more regulation and it’s a disincentive for businessmen to hire people. You probably also get higher taxes, so in terms of the economy, he is very negative in my view. - Marc Faber (1946- )

US Views: Looking to 2014 (Hatzius) Published December 10, 2013 1. The economic news remains broadly encouraging. Although we would discount the 3.6% increase in Q3 GDP—which was inflated by a large inventory contribution that is likely to reverse in Q4—other indicators also suggest that growth has accelerated since earlier in the year. Nonfarm payrolls grew a solid 203,000 in November, business surveys are at levels consistent with above-trend growth, and the consumer picture is improving, judging from the latest auto sales and consumer sentiment figures. Taking October and November together to adjust for the government shutdown distortions, our current activity indicator (CAI) has averaged 3% in the past two months, up from around 2% in the first half of 2013. Likewise, our US-MAP surprise index has moved back into positive territory, indicating that the economic activity data are mostly beating consensus forecasts.

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK Release Date: December 10, 2013 | Next Release Date: January 7, 2014 | Full Report | Text Only | All Tables | All Figures Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/prices.cfm SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK Release Date: December 10, 2013 | Next Release Date: January 7, 2014 | Full Report | Text Only | All Tables | All Figures Prices

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/index.cfm SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK Release Date: December 10, 2013 | Next Release Date: January 7, 2014 | Full Report | Text Only | All Tables | All Figures Overview

PIERRE & VACANCES RETURNS TO PROFITABILITY The Pierre & Vacances Center Parcs group closed the year with an operating profit of 2.6 million euro, as compared to a loss of 7 million euro last year. http://hospitality-on.com/en/news/2013/12/10/pierre-vacances-returns-to-profitability/

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101254028 Economists a bit more upbeat about 2014 Published: Monday, 9 Dec 2013 | 12:01 AM ET By: John W. Schoen | CNBC.com Economics Reporter They're not exactly singing "Happy Days Are Here Again," but business economists are feeling a little more upbeat about the recovery and job market heading into next year, according to a survey of the group released Monday.

http://www.cushmanwakefield.kr/en-gb/research-and-insight/2013/global-office-forecast-2014-2015/ GLOBAL OFFICE FORECAST 2014-2015 Published Date : 04/12/2013 Maria Sicola The following is a summary Download the PDF The global office market is poised for slow steady growth in 2014, while 2015 should be more robust as recovery takes hold and business gains renewed confidence. Jakarta, Dublin and Boston are the regional leaders among the top cities forecasted to see the highest office rental rate growth through 2015.

DECEMBER 4, 2013 Natural gas use for power generation falls as industrial sector's use continues to rise http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=14031 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Monthly and Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Note: October 2013 and November 2013 consumption volumes represent preliminary STEO estimates. For the first eleven months of 2013, natural gas consumption in the electric power sector was below 2012 levels because of relatively higher natural gas prices compared with coal prices, and cooler summer weather compared with 2012. EIA estimates that electric power sector natural gas consumption was, on average, down by 13% so far in 2013 (through November), relative to the same time period in 2012. By contrast, industrial sector natural gas consumption in 2013 was up 3% compared with 2012.

http://www.cushmanwakefield.com/en/research-and-insight/2013/global-office-forecast-2014-2015/ Global Office Forecast 2014-2015 Published Date : 12/4/2013 Maria Sicola The following is a summary Download the PDF The global office market is poised for slow steady growth in 2014, while 2015 should be more robust as recovery takes hold and business gains renewed confidence. Jakarta, Dublin and Boston are the regional leaders among the top cities forecasted to see the highest office rental rate growth through 2015.

Europe’s real estate market watch Dentons Eric Rosedale European Union December 3 2013 Europe’s real estate recovery gains momentum After years of facing a brutal combination of global tail risks and local head winds, European real estate markets appear to be gathering steam in both volume and breadth. While the global property investment market is predicted to grow by around 6 percent this year, European real estate markets generally experienced a more robust year-on-year progress in 2013. http://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=f3966c79-2329-440d-bd54-7c14c151e65d