_Economy and Finance

U.S. Has `Realistic Possibility' of Stagnation, S&P's Wyss Says The U.S. has a “realistic possibility” of falling into a Japanese-style economic slump, said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor’s. ...

Ken Langone: US Economy Like a 'Drunk That Keeps Drinking': Langone - CNBC By: CNBC.com The struggling U.S. economy, held up by "artificial" stimulus, is not unlike a "drunk that keeps drinking," Ken Langone, former director of the New York Stock Exchange and co-founder of Fieldpoint Private Bank and Trust told CNBC Tuesday. ...

U.S. Existing Home Sales in Record Plunge Sales of existing houses plunged by a record 27 percent in July as the effects of a government tax credit waned, showing a lack of jobs threatens to undermine the U.S. economic recovery. ...

Global economy going nowhere fast NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- So much for merger mania getting investors excited. Stocks were off to a brutal start Tuesday, following a lackluster Monday. Even though the pace of corporate takeovers is picking up, investors just aren't buying the notion that more mergers could lead to higher stock prices. ...

The Return of Greek Tragedy - CNBC By: Reported by David Faber, written by Gennine Kelly Economist Joseph Stiglitz is warning that Europe is at risk of going into a double-dip. According to Bloomberg, the Noble Prize winner told Dublin-based RTE Radio on Tuesday that when the Euro-area governments stepped up efforts to cut deficits to below the European Union limit of 3 percent of gross domestic product, so many in Europe focused on this "3 percent artificial number, which has no reality and is just looking at one side of a balance sheet," Stiglitz said. ...

CNBC Stock Market News — Why Markets Will Avoid Double-Dip: Chief Strategist - CNBC By: JeeYeon Park With stocks lower for the fourth trading session, are we headed for a double-dip? David Kelly, chief market strategist at JPMorgan Funds, and Sandy Lincoln, investment strategist at M&I Investment Management, shared their insights. ...

Gross Says Mortgage Yields Would Soar Without Government Aid Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest mutual fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said mortgage yields in the U.S. could rise as much as 4 percentage points without government support. ...

Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg - CNBC By: Jeff Cox Positive gross domestic product readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly truth: The US economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday. ...

Bacon prices sizzle. Consumers feel the heat. NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Bringing home the bacon is getting more expensive. Whether it's a bacon cheeseburger from a local diner or packs of bacon on grocery store shelves, you can expect to pay a higher price for your favorite cured meat until demand simmers down or more hogs are bred. ...

Draco Econometrics The open-source statistics package with an easy-to-understand interface Draco is an open-source econometric solution, providing functionality available in popular statistics packages without high purchasing and licensing costs. Draco presents a familiar, yet powerful, user interface to improve efficiency. http://approximatrix.com/products/draco Draco 1.4 Windows

The R Project for Statistical Computing Introduction to R R is a language and environment for statistical computing and graphics. It is a GNU project which is similar to the S language and environment which was developed at Bell Laboratories (formerly AT&T, now Lucent Technologies) by John Chambers and colleagues. R can be considered as a different implementation of S. There are some important differences, but much code written for S runs unaltered under R. ... http://www.r-project.org/

Gnu Regression, Econometrics and Time-series Library Is a cross-platform software package for econometric analysis, written in the C programming language. It is is free, open-source software. You may redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the GNU General Public License (GPL) as published by the Free Software Foundation. http://gretl.sourceforge.net/ Download Gretl 1.9 Windows

Daniel's XL Toolbox - Free and Open-Source Add-In for Excel Daniel's XL Toolbox is a free, open-source add-in for Excel® that helps you to analyze and present data.

RUNNING WITH SCISSORS |AUGUST 21, 2010 Rethinking Gold: What if It Isn't a Commodity After All? This won't sit well with some people: Gold isn't a commodity. There. I've said it.

WSJ.com - Preparing for the Next 'Black Swan' http://on.wsj.com/dm477j After a decade-long bear market and two years of turmoil that saw the stock market plunge by 57%, investors are betting on still more financial pain in the months ahead. Bond yields are near record lows. Gold continues to soar. And stocks are whipsawing as traders try to predict the direction of an economy that remains, in the words of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, "unusually uncertain." ...

China's Investing Turns to Neighbors China is looking more to its Asian neighbors' currencies and debt markets in its bid to lessen its reliance on the dollar.

'Just a bad trend' - 500,000 jobless claims NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A government report Thursday brought bad news for workers and the economy: The number of unemployed Americans seeking a financial lifeline has reached its highest level in nine months. ...

Why the U.S. may not be the next Japan NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The fashionable thing for economists to worry about these days is deflation. It's hard to go a day without someone proselytizing that the United States is the next Japan and that a Lost Decade looms on the horizon -- or might already have even begun. ...

China Cultivates Taste for German Cars As Chinese Drivers Snap Up Germany's Luxury Exports, Berlin Frets That Its Economy Rides Too Much on One Customer By VANESSA FUHRMANS Germany's resurgent export economy is presenting the country's policy makers with a new worry—a growing reliance on China. Germany's economy expanded at an annualized 9% rate in the second quarter, its strongest pace in more than 25 years. ...

Stanley Druckenmiller Retiring: Why Success Is Much Harder For Many Hedge Fund Managers - CNBC To many hedge-fund managers, news that Stanley Druckenmiller was quitting the business symbolized the difficulty of chasing returns in such a volatile market environment. ...

Creole Trail LNG Facility Type: LNG Scope: New Construction Owner: Cheniere Energy, Inc Location: Cameron Parish, Louisiana United States Region: North America Modified: August 17, 2010

Invest in Muni Bonds Carefully: Vanguard Manager - CNBC By: Michelle Lodge Special to CNBC.com Investing in municipal bonds, or munis, has plusses and minuses, a Vanguard manager told CNBC Wednesday, but overall he recommends putting money in select ones. ...

(EUR) ELLI default rate falls to 17-month low - Leveraged Commentary & Data The lagging 12-month default rate for the S&P European Leveraged Loan Index (ELLI) fell to 5.9% in July, a 17-month low, from 6.2% in June, based upon par amount outstanding. At the end of 2009, the rate stood at 10.5%, the highest level since LCD started tracking the ELLI default rate in June 2007. In the 12 months ended July 29, the ELLI tracked €8.2 billion of institutional loan defaults, down from €8.7 billion at the end of the June and €14.9 billion during 2009. The ELLI default rate measured by number of issuers remained unchanged in July, at 8.9%, the lowest level since the 8.2% reading in February 2009. During the 12-months ended July 29, 21 issuers defaulted or started the restructuring process, which is equal to the comparable time period ended July 1. At the end of December, the tally was 39. ...

Asian Economies Are Hot Again, And So Are Stock Markets - CNBC As the US and European Union economies struggle through the hangover of a deep financial crisis, countries in Asia that suffered their own crisis a dozen years ago are posting some of the fastest growth rates in the world. ...

Busch: Recession 2011? - CNBC By: Andrew B. Busch CNBC Contributor The San Francisco Federal Reserve has published a report that is generating a lot of buzz in the financial markets. Entitled, “ Future Recession Risks ,” the paper reviews the predictive capabilities of the US Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index. This report has been cited in several articles providing outlook for a double dip recession and generating additional angst for investors. ... "For example, the spread between 10-year Treasury bond and the federal funds rate works best 18 months into the future, whereas the initial claims for unemployment insurance indicator works best two months ahead. Clearly, one should give more weight to the rate-spread indicator than the initial claims indicator when forecasting in the long run, but less weight when forecasting in the short run." “Historically, this spread, which summarizes the slope of the interest rate term structure, has been a very good predic...

WNET signs lease at Worldwide Plaza August 17, 2010 08:30 AM Worldwide Plaza at 825 Eighth Avenue WNET, the parent company of public television’s Channel 13, has signed a 95,000-square-foot lease at Worldwide Plaza at 825 Eighth Avenue between 49th and 50th streets, taking two floors in the 1.8 million-square-foot tower, the Post reported. Terms for the Worldwide Plaza lease were not released, but asking rents there run from $52 to $59 a square foot. The deal marks an important step forward for the building, which was purchased last year from Deutsche Bank for $605 million by a George Comfort & Sons-led partnership after Deutsche took it back from Harry Macklowe. The WNET deal is the first section being leased out of the 640,000 square feet that became available after advertising agency Ogilvy & Mather moved out in 2009 (note: correction appended). WNET will move from its current corporate headquarters at 450 West 33rd Street by the end of the year. WNET was represented by...

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/business-strategy/brookfield-asset-management-a-perfect-predator/ Brookfield Asset Management: A perfect predator Brookfield Asset Management isn’t brash. It doesn’t take a lot of wild risks. It waits for the right opportunity, and then it pounces. Aug 16, 2010 Joanna Pachner Bruce Flatt just dissed Warren Buffett. Realizing his blunder, he practically lunges at the tape recorder and extracts a promise that he won’t be quoted. Flatt greatly admires the investing oracle—he wants that clear—and doesn’t want to seem arrogant.

Economy - Double Dip? A Tipping Point May Be Near - CNBC By: Jeff Sommer The New York Times Like a car spinning its wheels, the American economy hasn’t been getting much traction. Many financial indicators are issuing worrisome signals, millions of people are still out of work, and growth is slowing. ...

Is Docklands sinking Melbourne @ 5 Million? ALAN DAVIES | AUG 12, 2010 7:26PM Docklands has been roundly and rightly criticised for its appalling urban design but it has nevertheless been spectacularly successful in attracting business to locate by the water. http://blogs.crikey.com.au/theurbanist/2010/08/12/is-docklands-sinking-melbourne-5-million/

Hidden Trillions Widen China's Wealth Gap: Report - CNBC By: Reuters China's richest citizens are even wealthier than the statistics suggest, and may hold as much as 9.3 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) of hidden assets, according to a Credit Suisse-sponsored study by a top economic think-tank. ...

Youth Unemployment Hits Record High - CNBC By: Patrick Allen CNBC Senior News Editor Global youth unemployment has hit a record high following the financial crisis and is likely to get worse later this year, the International Labor Organization (ILO) said Thursday. ...

Shiller sees significant likelihood of double dip MarketWatch News Break - MarketWatch There's more than a 50% chance the economy is heading for a double dip recession. And noted economist and author Robert Shiller tells MarketWatch News Break that the Federal Reserve may now lack the power to end the gloom and doom. Shiller now wants Washington to pass a new job-creating stimulus package. Plus, John Madden's videogame empire keeps growing.

Fed to Market: Long-Term Rates Can Go Even Lower - CNBC If you're looking to judge the success of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy initiative, look at the Treasury market, not the stock market. Those wondering how low interest rates could go on two-, ten- and even 30-year Treasurys could go, now you have an answer. "Lower than anyone thought 24 hours ago," quipped Jim Awad, managing director at Zephyr Management. It creates "a rally in the Treasury market from here." ...

Behind on retirement? The secret to catching up By Walter Updegrave (Money Magazine) -- Question: I'm behind in saving for retirement. Should I take more risk to catch up? --James Wilson, San Antonio Answer: I can understand your concern -- and the temptation to try to ramp up your nest egg by investing more aggressively in stocks. After all, in the wake of an abysmal 10-year span in the market, a return to equities' historical annual gains of 10% may seem like a good bet. ...

Kilduff: Is Oil Heading To $200? - CNBC The attention of investors has been rightly focused on a solid earnings season, employment data, and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Tuesday. ...

Vulture investors: They're back - and making a bundle NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- These are the glory days of the residential real estate investor. Low prices, rock-bottom interest rates and stable rental markets have created huge buying opportunities. ...

Stock Market and Investing Week Ahead: Markets Look to the Fed - CNBC A weak jobs picture is raising expectations that the Fed may take new measures to cure the economy's ills. ...

Analysis: China poised to set gold market alight as it opens up By Lewa Pardomuan and Langi Chiang SINGAPORE/BEIJING | Thu Aug 5, 2010 12:32pm EDT (Reuters) - China's moves to free up its gold market open the way for foreign players and local banks to tap growing demand for the precious metal, offering citizens a more attractive investment and promising to boost the country's clout over global prices.

Wheat prices soar. Are bread prices next? NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- With wheat futures soaring to their highest level in two years, you could soon find yourself paying more for a loaf of bread at your local grocery store. ...

WSJ.com - Wheat at Two-Year High on Russian Export Ban http://on.wsj.com/9ZOmDg Wheat futures prices soared Thursday to their highest levels in two years after Russia said it would ban grain exports due to a severe drought, a move that heightens concerns about global supplies of the grain and the possible impact on food prices. ...

Stiglitz Says U.S. Faces `Anemic Recovery,' Needs More Stimulus Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph E. Stiglitz said the U.S. economy faces an “anemic recovery” and the government will need to enact another round of “better designed” stimulus measures. ...

Friday's Jobs Report: Forecast Is For More Disappointment - CNBC US private sector employers likely added about 100,000 jobs in the month of July, but a new round of state and local government layoffs may add new weight to the jobless rate. ...

US Economy - No Double Dip, No Deflation: RBS - CNBC Following a number of strong earnings reports that includes encouraging outlook, the economy is not "headed for either a double dip recession or a deflationary malaise," according to Royal Bank of Scotland. John Richards, the head of North American strategy at RBS, said "We expect GDP growth of at least 3 percent in the coming six quarters and a very slow pick up in inflation." ...

Stocks - Forget Doom, Old-Fashioned Rally Coming: Fund Manager - CNBC Michael Browne, fund manager at Martin Currie, told CNBC. "Risk aversion is the new black and the professors and black swans are falling over themselves to predict the collapse of a debt-laden economy," "Almost all come up with the same pattern…they are lending again to small and mid-sized corporations and would like to lend more but there is no demand, especially from large corporations who are funding themselves from a very cheap market," "Individual lending is also showing signs of life. So if on top of this you get the consistent pattern of falling provisions then they are telling me that the economy is recovering. Rather faster than we should have expected," "The post re-stocking dip seems to have been obliterated. And the same message is coming from pretty much everywhere. The job creation rate is quite impressive, especially from Germany," "There is mone...

Commodities - Wheat Soars; Rogers Sees 'Much Higher' Food Prices - CNBC The July rise in wheat prices, the fastest in 51 years, indicates that shortages in agriculture are coming, Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC.com Tuesday. ... "That's the straw that broke the camel's back," "We're going to have much, much higher prices over the next few years," "Be prepared, if you have a sugar bowl home go fill it up because it's going to be more expensive," "Prices aren't high enough and most people don't believe it," "Unless prices are high you're not going to attract people in the business. Eventually people will go into farming again but it's going to take a while." "It's all happening at a time when governments are printing more money… it's a very dangerous situation," "When you print money, it's got to go in a place where it can protect itself,...

US Unemployment Could Rise Before It Drops: Geithner - CNBC Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the U.S. unemployment rate could rise for two months before it drops, potentially deepening Democrats' problems in the November congressional elections. …

Fed Is Unlikely to Take Major Steps to Boost US Economy - CNBC Markets might be getting ahead of themselves in anticipating some bold new moves from the Federal Reserve to combat the weakening economy. …

Banks Continue to Suffer From Weak Revenue Growth: Whitney - CNBC Despite relatively strong second-quarter earnings, US banks are still suffering from poor revenue growth and will continue to do so at least into next year, financial analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC Tuesday. …

Editorial Cartoons http://i.usatoday.net/news/opinion/_photos/2010/08/02/e100802_pettpg-vertical.jpg By Joel Pett, Lexington (Ky.) Herald-Leader, Cartoonists and Writers Syndicate, for USA TODAY

Bernanke sees 'moderate growth;' long road to recovery NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said Monday that the U.S. economy faces a long and bumpy ride ahead to overcome the deepest recession since the Great Depression, though the worst is over. ...

Economist: V-Shaped Recovery Won't Go W-Shaped - CNBC

China manufacturing growth slows

China Overtakes Japan as World's Second-Largest Economy from DailyFinance China is now the world's second-largest economy, having overtaken Japan, a senior Chinese official said. ...

Commodities - Is Gold Pointing to Lehman Mark II? - CNBC Gold and oil prices are flashing warning signals that this summer may look more like the summer before the collapse of Lehman Brothers than the one that preceded the onset of the crisis in 2007, according to Simon Derrick, head of currency research at Bank of New York Mellon. ...

Have Jobs Become a Leading Indicator? - CNBC

CNBC's Top States For Business 2010—And The Winner Is.... - CNBC