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Tuesday, August 24, 2010

U.S. Has `Realistic Possibility' of Stagnation, S&P's Wyss Says

U.S. Has `Realistic Possibility' of Stagnation, S&P's Wyss Says

The U.S. has a “realistic possibility” of falling into a Japanese-style economic slump, said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor’s. ...

Ken Langone: US Economy Like a 'Drunk That Keeps Drinking': Langone - CNBC

Ken Langone: US Economy Like a 'Drunk That Keeps Drinking': Langone - CNBC

By: CNBC.com

The struggling U.S. economy, held up by "artificial" stimulus, is not unlike a "drunk that keeps drinking," Ken Langone, former director of the New York Stock Exchange and co-founder of Fieldpoint Private Bank and Trust told CNBC Tuesday. ...

U.S. Existing Home Sales in Record Plunge

U.S. Existing Home Sales in Record Plunge

Sales of existing houses plunged by a record 27 percent in July as the effects of a government tax credit waned, showing a lack of jobs threatens to undermine the U.S. economic recovery. ...

Global economy going nowhere fast

Global economy going nowhere fast


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- So much for merger mania getting investors excited.

Stocks were off to a brutal start Tuesday, following a lackluster Monday. Even though the pace of corporate takeovers is picking up, investors just aren't buying the notion that more mergers could lead to higher stock prices. ...

The Return of Greek Tragedy - CNBC

The Return of Greek Tragedy - CNBC

By: Reported by David Faber, written by Gennine Kelly

Economist Joseph Stiglitz is warning that Europe is at risk of going into a double-dip.

According to Bloomberg, the Noble Prize winner told Dublin-based RTE Radio on Tuesday that when the Euro-area governments stepped up efforts to cut deficits to below the European Union limit of 3 percent of gross domestic product, so many in Europe focused on this "3 percent artificial number, which has no reality and is just looking at one side of a balance sheet," Stiglitz said. ...

CNBC Stock Market News — Why Markets Will Avoid Double-Dip: Chief Strategist - CNBC

CNBC Stock Market News — Why Markets Will Avoid Double-Dip: Chief Strategist - CNBC

By: JeeYeon Park

With stocks lower for the fourth trading session, are we headed for a double-dip? David Kelly, chief market strategist at JPMorgan Funds, and Sandy Lincoln, investment strategist at M&I Investment Management, shared their insights. ...

Gross Says Mortgage Yields Would Soar Without Government Aid

Gross Says Mortgage Yields Would Soar Without Government Aid

Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest mutual fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said mortgage yields in the U.S. could rise as much as 4 percentage points without government support. ...

Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg - CNBC

Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg - CNBC

By: Jeff Cox

Positive gross domestic product readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly truth: The US economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday. ...

Bacon prices sizzle. Consumers feel the heat.

Bacon prices sizzle. Consumers feel the heat.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Bringing home the bacon is getting more expensive.

Whether it's a bacon cheeseburger from a local diner or packs of bacon on grocery store shelves, you can expect to pay a higher price for your favorite cured meat until demand simmers down or more hogs are bred. ...

Monday, August 23, 2010

Draco

Draco Econometrics

The open-source statistics package with an easy-to-understand interface

Draco is an open-source econometric solution, providing functionality available in popular statistics packages without high purchasing and licensing costs. Draco presents a familiar, yet powerful, user interface to improve efficiency.

http://approximatrix.com/products/draco

Draco 1.4 Windows

The R Project for Statistical Computing

The R Project for Statistical Computing

Introduction to R

R is a language and environment for statistical computing and graphics. It is a GNU project which is similar to the S language and environment which was developed at Bell Laboratories (formerly AT&T, now Lucent Technologies) by John Chambers and colleagues. R can be considered as a different implementation of S. There are some important differences, but much code written for S runs unaltered under R. ...

http://www.r-project.org/

Gretl

Gnu Regression, Econometrics and Time-series Library

Is a cross-platform software package for econometric analysis, written in the C programming language. It is is free, open-source software. You may redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the GNU General Public License (GPL) as published by the Free Software Foundation.

http://gretl.sourceforge.net/

Download Gretl 1.9 Windows

Daniel's XL Toolbox - Free and Open-Source Add-In for Excel

Daniel's XL Toolbox - Free and Open-Source Add-In for Excel

Daniel's XL Toolbox is a free, open-source add-in for Excel® that helps you to analyze and present data.

Sunday, August 22, 2010

Rethinking Gold: What if It Isn't a Commodity After All?

RUNNING WITH SCISSORS|AUGUST 21, 2010
Rethinking Gold: What if It Isn't a Commodity After All?

This won't sit well with some people: Gold isn't a commodity. There. I've said it.

Preparing for the Next 'Black Swan'

WSJ.com - Preparing for the Next 'Black Swan' http://on.wsj.com/dm477j

After a decade-long bear market and two years of turmoil that saw the stock market plunge by 57%, investors are betting on still more financial pain in the months ahead.

Bond yields are near record lows. Gold continues to soar. And stocks are whipsawing as traders try to predict the direction of an economy that remains, in the words of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, "unusually uncertain." ...

Thursday, August 19, 2010

China's Investing Turns to Neighbors

China's Investing Turns to Neighbors

China is looking more to its Asian neighbors' currencies and debt markets in its bid to lessen its reliance on the dollar.

'Just a bad trend' - 500,000 jobless claims

'Just a bad trend' - 500,000 jobless claims


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A government report Thursday brought bad news for workers and the economy: The number of unemployed Americans seeking a financial lifeline has reached its highest level in nine months. ...

Why the U.S. may not be the next Japan

Why the U.S. may not be the next Japan

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The fashionable thing for economists to worry about these days is deflation.

It's hard to go a day without someone proselytizing that the United States is the next Japan and that a Lost Decade looms on the horizon -- or might already have even begun. ...

China Cultivates Taste for German Cars

China Cultivates Taste for German Cars

As Chinese Drivers Snap Up Germany's Luxury Exports, Berlin Frets That Its Economy Rides Too Much on One Customer

By VANESSA FUHRMANS

Germany's resurgent export economy is presenting the country's policy makers with a new worry—a growing reliance on China.

Germany's economy expanded at an annualized 9% rate in the second quarter, its strongest pace in more than 25 years. ...

Stanley Druckenmiller Retiring: Why Success Is Much Harder For Many Hedge Fund Managers - CNBC

Stanley Druckenmiller Retiring: Why Success Is Much Harder For Many Hedge Fund Managers - CNBC

To many hedge-fund managers, news that Stanley Druckenmiller was quitting the business symbolized the difficulty of chasing returns in such a volatile market environment. ...

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Creole Trail LNG

Creole Trail LNG
Facility Type: LNG

Scope: New Construction
Owner: Cheniere Energy, Inc
Location: Cameron Parish, Louisiana United States
Region: North America
Modified: August 17, 2010

Invest in Muni Bonds Carefully: Vanguard Manager - CNBC

Invest in Muni Bonds Carefully: Vanguard Manager - CNBC

By: Michelle Lodge
Special to CNBC.com

Investing in municipal bonds, or munis, has plusses and minuses, a Vanguard manager told CNBC Wednesday, but overall he recommends putting money in select ones. ...

(EUR) ELLI default rate falls to 17-month low - Leveraged Commentary & Data

(EUR) ELLI default rate falls to 17-month low - Leveraged Commentary & Data

The lagging 12-month default rate for the S&P European Leveraged Loan Index (ELLI) fell to 5.9% in July, a 17-month low, from 6.2% in June, based upon par amount outstanding. At the end of 2009, the rate stood at 10.5%, the highest level since LCD started tracking the ELLI default rate in June 2007.

In the 12 months ended July 29, the ELLI tracked €8.2 billion of institutional loan defaults, down from €8.7 billion at the end of the June and €14.9 billion during 2009.

The ELLI default rate measured by number of issuers remained unchanged in July, at 8.9%, the lowest level since the 8.2% reading in February 2009. During the 12-months ended July 29, 21 issuers defaulted or started the restructuring process, which is equal to the comparable time period ended July 1. At the end of December, the tally was 39. ...

Asian Economies Are Hot Again, And So Are Stock Markets - CNBC

Asian Economies Are Hot Again, And So Are Stock Markets - CNBC

As the US and European Union economies struggle through the hangover of a deep financial crisis, countries in Asia that suffered their own crisis a dozen years ago are posting some of the fastest growth rates in the world. ...

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Busch: Recession 2011? - CNBC

Busch: Recession 2011? - CNBC

By: Andrew B. Busch
CNBC Contributor

The San Francisco Federal Reserve has published a report that is generating a lot of buzz in the financial markets. Entitled, “Future Recession Risks,” the paper reviews the predictive capabilities of the US Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index. This report has been cited in several articles providing outlook for a double dip recession and generating additional angst for investors. ...

"For example, the spread between 10-year Treasury bond and the federal funds rate works best 18 months into the future, whereas the initial claims for unemployment insurance indicator works best two months ahead. Clearly, one should give more weight to the rate-spread indicator than the initial claims indicator when forecasting in the long run, but less weight when forecasting in the short run."

“Historically, this spread, which summarizes the slope of the interest rate term structure, has been a very good predictor of turning points 12 to 18 months into the future. Specifically, an inverted yield curve has preceded each of the last seven recessions.”

WNET signs lease at Worldwide Plaza

WNET signs lease at Worldwide Plaza
August 17, 2010 08:30 AM

Worldwide Plaza at 825 Eighth Avenue

WNET, the parent company of public television’s Channel 13, has signed a 95,000-square-foot lease at Worldwide Plaza at 825 Eighth Avenue between 49th and 50th streets, taking two floors in the 1.8 million-square-foot tower, the Post reported. Terms for the Worldwide Plaza lease were not released, but asking rents there run from $52 to $59 a square foot. The deal marks an important step forward for the building, which was purchased last year from Deutsche Bank for $605 million by a George Comfort & Sons-led partnership after Deutsche took it back from Harry Macklowe. The WNET deal is the first section being leased out of the 640,000 square feet that became available after advertising agency Ogilvy & Mather moved out in 2009 (note: correction appended). WNET will move from its current corporate headquarters at 450 West 33rd Street by the end of the year. WNET was represented by Cushman & Wakefield’s Charles Borrok and Barry Zeller in the transaction. The landlord was represented in-house by Peter Duncan, George Comfort CEO and president, and Matthew Coudert, executive vice president.

Monday, August 16, 2010

Brookfield Asset Management: A perfect predator

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/business-strategy/brookfield-asset-management-a-perfect-predator/

Brookfield Asset Management: A perfect predator
Brookfield Asset Management isn’t brash. It doesn’t take a lot of wild risks. It waits for the right opportunity, and then it pounces.

Aug 16, 2010 Joanna Pachner

Bruce Flatt just dissed Warren Buffett. Realizing his blunder, he practically lunges at the tape recorder and extracts a promise that he won’t be quoted. Flatt greatly admires the investing oracle—he wants that clear—and doesn’t want to seem arrogant.

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Economy - Double Dip? A Tipping Point May Be Near - CNBC

Economy - Double Dip? A Tipping Point May Be Near - CNBC

By: Jeff Sommer
The New York Times

Like a car spinning its wheels, the American economy hasn’t been getting much traction. Many financial indicators are issuing worrisome signals, millions of people are still out of work, and growth is slowing. ...

Friday, August 13, 2010

Is Docklands sinking Melbourne @ 5 Million?

Is Docklands sinking Melbourne @ 5 Million?
ALAN DAVIES | AUG 12, 2010 7:26PM

Docklands has been roundly and rightly criticised for its appalling urban design but it has nevertheless been spectacularly successful in attracting business to locate by the water.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/theurbanist/2010/08/12/is-docklands-sinking-melbourne-5-million/

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Hidden Trillions Widen China's Wealth Gap: Report - CNBC

Hidden Trillions Widen China's Wealth Gap: Report - CNBC

By: Reuters

China's richest citizens are even wealthier than the statistics suggest, and may hold as much as 9.3 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) of hidden assets, according to a Credit Suisse-sponsored study by a top economic think-tank. ...

Youth Unemployment Hits Record High - CNBC

Youth Unemployment Hits Record High - CNBC

By: Patrick Allen
CNBC Senior News Editor

Global youth unemployment has hit a record high following the financial crisis and is likely to get worse later this year, the International Labor Organization (ILO) said Thursday. ...

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Shiller sees significant likelihood of double dip MarketWatch News Break - MarketWatch

Shiller sees significant likelihood of double dip MarketWatch News Break - MarketWatch

There's more than a 50% chance the economy is heading for a double dip recession. And noted economist and author Robert Shiller tells MarketWatch News Break that the Federal Reserve may now lack the power to end the gloom and doom. Shiller now wants Washington to pass a new job-creating stimulus package. Plus, John Madden's videogame empire keeps growing.

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Fed to Market: Long-Term Rates Can Go Even Lower - CNBC

Fed to Market: Long-Term Rates Can Go Even Lower - CNBC

If you're looking to judge the success of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy initiative, look at the Treasury market, not the stock market.

Those wondering how low interest rates could go on two-, ten- and even 30-year Treasurys could go, now you have an answer.

"Lower than anyone thought 24 hours ago," quipped Jim Awad, managing director at Zephyr Management. It creates "a rally in the Treasury market from here." ...

Behind on retirement? The secret to catching up

Behind on retirement? The secret to catching up

By Walter Updegrave

(Money Magazine) -- Question: I'm behind in saving for retirement. Should I take more risk to catch up? --James Wilson, San Antonio

Answer: I can understand your concern -- and the temptation to try to ramp up your nest egg by investing more aggressively in stocks. After all, in the wake of an abysmal 10-year span in the market, a return to equities' historical annual gains of 10% may seem like a good bet. ...

Kilduff: Is Oil Heading To $200? - CNBC

Kilduff: Is Oil Heading To $200? - CNBC

The attention of investors has been rightly focused on a solid earnings season, employment data, and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Tuesday. ...

Sunday, August 8, 2010

Vulture investors: They're back - and making a bundle

Vulture investors: They're back - and making a bundle

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- These are the glory days of the residential real estate investor. Low prices, rock-bottom interest rates and stable rental markets have created huge buying opportunities. ...

Stock Market and Investing Week Ahead: Markets Look to the Fed - CNBC

Stock Market and Investing Week Ahead: Markets Look to the Fed - CNBC

A weak jobs picture is raising expectations that the Fed may take new measures to cure the economy's ills. ...

Friday, August 6, 2010

Analysis: China poised to set gold market alight as it opens up

Analysis: China poised to set gold market alight as it opens up

By Lewa Pardomuan and Langi Chiang
SINGAPORE/BEIJING | Thu Aug 5, 2010 12:32pm EDT

(Reuters) - China's moves to free up its gold market open the way for foreign players and local banks to tap growing demand for the precious metal, offering citizens a more attractive investment and promising to boost the country's clout over global prices.

Wheat prices soar. Are bread prices next?

Wheat prices soar. Are bread prices next?


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- With wheat futures soaring to their highest level in two years, you could soon find yourself paying more for a loaf of bread at your local grocery store. ...

Thursday, August 5, 2010

Wheat at Two-Year High on Russian Export Ban

WSJ.com - Wheat at Two-Year High on Russian Export Ban http://on.wsj.com/9ZOmDg

Wheat futures prices soared Thursday to their highest levels in two years after Russia said it would ban grain exports due to a severe drought, a move that heightens concerns about global supplies of the grain and the possible impact on food prices. ...

Stiglitz Says U.S. Faces `Anemic Recovery,' Needs More Stimulus

Stiglitz Says U.S. Faces `Anemic Recovery,' Needs More Stimulus

Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph E. Stiglitz said the U.S. economy faces an “anemic recovery” and the government will need to enact another round of “better designed” stimulus measures. ...

Friday's Jobs Report: Forecast Is For More Disappointment - CNBC

Friday's Jobs Report: Forecast Is For More Disappointment - CNBC

US private sector employers likely added about 100,000 jobs in the month of July, but a new round of state and local government layoffs may add new weight to the jobless rate. ...

US Economy - No Double Dip, No Deflation: RBS - CNBC

US Economy - No Double Dip, No Deflation: RBS - CNBC

Following a number of strong earnings reports that includes encouraging outlook, the economy is not "headed for either a double dip recession or a deflationary malaise," according to Royal Bank of Scotland.

John Richards, the head of North American strategy at RBS, said "We expect GDP growth of at least 3 percent in the coming six quarters and a very slow pick up in inflation." ...

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Stocks - Forget Doom, Old-Fashioned Rally Coming: Fund Manager - CNBC

Stocks - Forget Doom, Old-Fashioned Rally Coming: Fund Manager - CNBC

Michael Browne, fund manager at Martin Currie, told CNBC.

"Risk aversion is the new black and the professors and black swans are falling over themselves to predict the collapse of a debt-laden economy,"

"Almost all come up with the same pattern…they are lending again to small and mid-sized corporations and would like to lend more but there is no demand, especially from large corporations who are funding themselves from a very cheap market,"

"Individual lending is also showing signs of life. So if on top of this you get the consistent pattern of falling provisions then they are telling me that the economy is recovering. Rather faster than we should have expected,"

"The post re-stocking dip seems to have been obliterated. And the same message is coming from pretty much everywhere. The job creation rate is quite impressive, especially from Germany,"

"There is money in the kitty and each board will face the question in September of 'what to do with it? Do we buy companies, invest in new plant and people or return it to shareholders.' Well, expect all three,"

"Will it all end in tears? Not if you look at the detail…the fiscal plans are frankly all about trying to hold government spending flat in absolute terms while nominal GDP rises and the tax take then rises,"

"If credit improves and allows the recovery to be recognized then there is significant potential for a major equity rally: risk premiums are at all-time highs in Europe and if we are right, the earnings estimates for 2011 are too low,"

"We are net long 66 percent and are about to take on some leverage……just like we were in 2004 and this year is just like 2004."

Commodities - Wheat Soars; Rogers Sees 'Much Higher' Food Prices - CNBC

Commodities - Wheat Soars; Rogers Sees 'Much Higher' Food Prices - CNBC

The July rise in wheat prices, the fastest in 51 years, indicates that shortages in agriculture are coming, Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC.com Tuesday. ...

"That's the straw that broke the camel's back,"

"We're going to have much, much higher prices over the next few years,"

"Be prepared, if you have a sugar bowl home go fill it up because it's going to be more expensive,"

"Prices aren't high enough and most people don't believe it,"

"Unless prices are high you're not going to attract people in the business. Eventually people will go into farming again but it's going to take a while."

"It's all happening at a time when governments are printing more money… it's a very dangerous situation,"

"When you print money, it's got to go in a place where it can protect itself, and that's real assets,"

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

US Unemployment Could Rise Before It Drops: Geithner - CNBC

US Unemployment Could Rise Before It Drops: Geithner - CNBC

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the U.S. unemployment rate could rise for two months before it drops, potentially deepening Democrats' problems in the November congressional elections. …

Fed Is Unlikely to Take Major Steps to Boost US Economy - CNBC

Fed Is Unlikely to Take Major Steps to Boost US Economy - CNBC

Markets might be getting ahead of themselves in anticipating some bold new moves from the Federal Reserve to combat the weakening economy. …

Banks Continue to Suffer From Weak Revenue Growth: Whitney - CNBC

Banks Continue to Suffer From Weak Revenue Growth: Whitney - CNBC

Despite relatively strong second-quarter earnings, US banks are still suffering from poor revenue growth and will continue to do so at least into next year, financial analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC Tuesday. …

Monday, August 2, 2010

Editorial Cartoons

Editorial Cartoons http://i.usatoday.net/news/opinion/_photos/2010/08/02/e100802_pettpg-vertical.jpg

By Joel Pett, Lexington (Ky.) Herald-Leader, Cartoonists and Writers Syndicate, for USA TODAY

Bernanke sees 'moderate growth;' long road to recovery

Bernanke sees 'moderate growth;' long road to recovery

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said Monday that the U.S. economy faces a long and bumpy ride ahead to overcome the deepest recession since the Great Depression, though the worst is over. ...

Economist: V-Shaped Recovery Won't Go W-Shaped - CNBC

Economist: V-Shaped Recovery Won't Go W-Shaped - CNBC

China manufacturing growth slows

China manufacturing growth slows

China Overtakes Japan as World's Second-Largest Economy

China Overtakes Japan as World's Second-Largest Economy from DailyFinance

China is now the world's second-largest economy, having overtaken Japan, a senior Chinese official said. ...