Busch: Recession 2011? - CNBC
By: Andrew B. Busch
CNBC Contributor
The San Francisco Federal Reserve has published a report that is generating a lot of buzz in the financial markets. Entitled, “Future Recession Risks,” the paper reviews the predictive capabilities of the US Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index. This report has been cited in several articles providing outlook for a double dip recession and generating additional angst for investors. ...
"For example, the spread between 10-year Treasury bond and the federal funds rate works best 18 months into the future, whereas the initial claims for unemployment insurance indicator works best two months ahead. Clearly, one should give more weight to the rate-spread indicator than the initial claims indicator when forecasting in the long run, but less weight when forecasting in the short run."
“Historically, this spread, which summarizes the slope of the interest rate term structure, has been a very good predictor of turning points 12 to 18 months into the future. Specifically, an inverted yield curve has preceded each of the last seven recessions.”
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