_Economy and Finance

Strip mall in Cornelius, Oregon Neighborhood center Neighborhood centers are small-scale malls serving the local neighborhood. They typically have a supermarket or a drugstore as an anchor, and are commonly arranged in a strip mall format. Neighborhood centers usually have a retail area of 30,000 to 150,000 square feet (2,800 to 13,900 m2), and serve a primary area in a 3-mile (4.8 km) radius. They are sometimes known as convenience centers. Description English: Strip mall in Cornelius, Oregon, off TV Hwy. Date 5 May 2009 Source http://commons.wikimedia.org/ Author M.O. Stevens Camera location . Permission Public Domain Licensing This work has been released into the public domain by its author. This applies worldwide. In some countries this may not be legally possible; if so: The author grants anyone the right to use this work for any purpose, without any conditions, unless such conditions are required by law. From Wikimedia Commons http://commons.wikimedia.org/ , h...

Enter Sandman? Julia Coronado - Market Economics US Daily Spotlight | 09 Jul 2013 00:06 | Markets settled down a little on Monday with Treasuries yields retracing nearly half their Friday spike and equities posting another modest gain closing just under 2% below their peak on May 21, the day before Chairman Bernanke effectively endorsed tapering. With little data to digest investors are looking to a series of bond auctions and a speech from Chairman Bernanke on Wednesday afternoon to set the tone. Bernanke will speak at a conference sponsored by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) titled “The First 100 Years of the Federal Reserve: The Policy Record, Lessons Learned, and Prospects for the Future”. There is no title listed on the conference agenda but Chairman Bernanke closes the conference after four academic papers on political influences on Fed policy, international influences, appropriate design of a central bank, and the Fed’s track record on regulation. The l...

Canadian Cool Down Bricklin Dwyer - Market Economics US Daily Spotlight | 09 May 2013 00:20 | The housing market in Canada continues to be the most significant risk facing the economy. While the economy is closely tied to both US economic (mostly autos and housing) growth and global commodity prices, the Canadian consumer has been the driving force behind economic growth, making up over 54% of GDP. In spite of the lacklustre 0.7% q/q saar and 0.6% rates of GDP growth in Q3 and Q4 last year, personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.5pp to growth each quarter and kept the economy expanding. Despite this persistent strength in consumption, growth in disposable income and residential investment has slowed substantially – pointing to vulnerability in consumer demand.

SG Commodities Review: US Natural Gas Laurent Key 2013.03.20 ■ SG research’s Cal 13 price forecast was revised 20 cents higher vs last quarter at $3.70, due to the bullish withdrawals experienced at the end of the winter.

How the US Can Start Exporting Energy: Chevron CEO Published: Tuesday, 12 Mar 2013 | 5:30 PM ET By: Justin Menza Chevron will be making major investments to increase its oil and gas production this year, but only a fraction of those investments will be made in the U.S., CEO John Watson told CNBC's "Closing Bell" on Tuesday. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100547355

'Big Box' Outlook The ‘Big box’ outlook covers warehouse and distribution facilities of at least 250,000 square feet located around the United States. View report

Housing and Core Inflation – It’s Complicated Laura Rosner - Market Economics US Daily Spotlight | 22 Feb 2013 03:15 | Markets were risk-off on Thursday, as equity markets sold off by more than 0.6% for the second day in a row, while the 10yr Treasury closed the day at 1.98%. Data for the day were unimpressive with jobless claims for the week suggesting only modest improvement in February payroll employment, existing home sales edging marginally higher and the February Philly Fed manufacturing index falling sharply (details of the report were less negative than the headline index implied). Meanwhile, core inflation was slightly stronger than expected in the January CPI report, mainly reflecting a rebound in core goods prices, but also modestly firmer increases in housing costs.

Is the Trend Our Friend? Julia Coronado - Market Economics US Daily Spotlight | 04 Feb 2013 00:20 | Last week’s US data provided some big headline surprises, but, on balance, provided some key signals on the state of the US recovery. While Q4 GDP surprised sharply to the downside with a small decline, December construction data on Friday already suggested a small upward revision to a flat reading. Smoothing through the Q3 and Q4 offsetting surprises, the message seems to be the underlying run rate of the economy through 2012 was about 1.5%, somewhat below our prior estimate closer to 2.0%. While January payrolls were close to expectations, benchmark revisions going back to March 2011 suggest a higher trend pace of hiring. Nonfarm payrolls averaged 181k in 2012 and 175k in 2011. This more robust estimate of hiring coupled with a gradual, steady decline in the unemployment rate suggests trend growth in the US may be slower than most current estimates.

US: Markets Through the Looking Glass Julia Coronado - Market Economics US Daily Spotlight | 31 Jan 2013 01:40 | Financial markets continued their increasingly bizarre, bullish run Wednesday, with a teensy equity selloff and little change in Treasury yields, despite a surprise negative print on Q4 GDP growth. While a number of volatile drivers of Q4 GDP weakness should be smoothed through, one truly needs to be peering through the looking glass to extract a positive spin from such a negative surprise. The FOMC also looked through the Q4 economic weakness, although the Committee drew the conclusion that not enough has changed in the economic outlook for them to alter their ongoing expansion of monetary policy, and they maintained their USD 85bn pace of securities purchases. It appears that a recent expansion in leverage on the part of hedge funds has contributed to the bull run in markets that has been impervious to weaker-than-expected economic data, and, at some point, markets co...

Eco Analysis - FOMC stays the course (A. Markowska) Summary: The FOMC statement was very much inline with expectations. Asset purchases will continue at $85bn per month until the outlook for the labor market improves substantially, or until the perceived costs start to outweigh the benefits. The FOMC did not offer any new color on when that may be (and none was expected). The Fed's characterization of Q4 GDP numbers was a temporary pause driven by transitory factors. The statement notes some improvement in private sector demand, and sees the current policy stance as consistent with the recovery proceeding at a moderate pace. After the annual rotation of voting members, there was only one dissent vs. the possibility of two, perhaps suggesting a slightly less hawkish bias than expected. We will look to FOMC minutes on February 20th for more color on the timeframe for asset purchases.

US: Open-mouth Operations at Work Yelena Shulyatyeva and Bricklin Dwyer Chairman Bernanke stuck very close to the party line during his conversation today at the University of Michigan, and did not alter or deviate from that message. When given the chance to push back on the market's response to the December FOMC minutes, he didn't. Unlike some of the FOMC participants we heard from yesterday, Chairman Bernanke did not provide any guidance on the timing of asset purchases. In our view, he is likely in the camp of FOMC members who “emphasized the need for considerable policy accommodation but did not state a specific time frame or total for purchases.” The Chairman said that QE has been effective in the past and that the latest round looks like it is working, but cautioned that it is too early to make an assessment. He still sees the labour market as weak, the economy as fragile and the cost of letting unemployment persist at current levels enormous. He reiterated two main t...

Working for the Man Julia Coronado - Market Economics US Daily Spotlight | 10 Jan 2013 00:15 | The corporate earnings season got off to a positive start on Wednesday, with Alcoa beating market expectations in Q4 and raising its 2013 outlook. The company cited an improving Chinese economy and its own cost-cutting measures and productivity gains. A number of equity analysts are fairly bullish on the prospects for US corporations, although this is an outlook increasingly tied to the global outlook, with sometimes minimal positive spillovers to, or dependency on, the US economy.

Eco Analysis - US Employment Report: Surprisingly Good (B. Jones) ■ Nonfarm job growth eclipsed all projections for a second straight month in November The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that nonfarm payrolls expanded by 146K in November, following a revised 138K rise in October (was 171K) and 132K increase in September (was 148K). Last month's print exceeded both our (122K) and the median Street (85K) expectations. Indeed, for the second month in a row, the front-month job gain eclipsed all published economist projections.

Why Can’t We Be Friends? Julia Coronado - Market Economics US Daily Spotlight | 19 Nov 2012 00:15 | Last week ended on a hopeful note as Democratic and Republican Congressional leaders met at the White House with President Obama and emerged from their meeting promising they would reach a fiscal compromise “before Christmas”. There is still much political wood to be chopped to reach agreement, and it is certain to be a bumpy road. Nevertheless, we feel reasonably confident that the parameters of a deal are well within sight, and the political incentives on both sides are for a smooth outcome.

Perspectives on e-commerce: demystifying distribution site selection Internet—and now, mobile phone—commerce are growing over twice as fast as store retailing. View report

Related News: Bloomberg, Economy, U.S. First-Time Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Decrease to Four-Month Low By Bob Willis - Aug 11, 2011 08:19 PM GMT Claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly dropped last week to a four-month low, signaling the job market is being hampered by a lack of hiring rather than more firings.

Related News: Bloomberg, Canada, Retail, Economy, Currencies, Italy, Municipal Bonds, US Cut in Household Spending Points to Recession By Shobhana Chandra and Steve Matthews - Aug 11, 2011 04:01 AM GMT Recession signals in the world’s largest economy are flashing red again.

Related News: Bloomberg, Real Estate, US, Economy Existing Home Sales in U.S. Rose 2.4% in June By Bob Willis - Jul 28, 2011 11:28 PM GMT+0900 The number of contracts to purchase previously owned U.S. homes unexpectedly rose in June as buyers tried to take advantage of lower prices and borrowing costs.

What Happens if the U.S. is downgraded? John Carney, CNBC, 2011-07-27 Implications of a US Downgrade

Related News: Bloomberg, US, Real Estate, Economy U.S. June New-Home Sales Fall More Than Estimated to 312,000 Annual Pace Sales of new U.S. homes unexpectedly fell for a second month and a gauge of property values also dropped, showing the industry that sparked the recession is stagnating.