_Economy and Finance

THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR April 24, 2013, 12:25 p.m. ET Here Comes the Next Hot Emerging Market: the U.S. By JASON ZWEIG The investment visionary who coined the term "emerging markets" and helped launch the first funds to invest in developing countries thinks he has spotted what you might call the next great emerging market. It is called "the United States." http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324763404578432832232151840.html

SAMSUNG SRA ASSET MANAGEMENT AND CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD INVESTORS ACQUIRE 30 CROWN PLACE IN THE CITY OF LONDON 24 Apr, 2013, London Samsung SRA Asset Management ('Samsung SRA') through Cushman & Wakefield Investors ('CWI') has acquired 30 Crown Place, London EC2, on behalf of South Korean institutional investors from a fund managed by Hannover Leasing GmbH & Co. KG. http://www.cushwake.com/cwglobal/jsp/newsDetail.jsp?Language=EN&repId=c59700005p&Country=GB

Distressed Debt Buyers Eye European Market Apr. 24, 2013 Beth Mattson-Teig Investors hunting for higher yields are turning their attention to Europe, where a substantial pipeline of distressed commercial real estate debt is poised to hit the market. http://nreionline.com/private-equity/distressed-debt-buyers-eye-european-market

Top of Mind: Bond Bubble Breakdown Published April 22, 2013 Hi all, just out with a new Top of Mind: Bond Bubble Breakdown. Near multi-generational low bond yields, driven at least in part by US Federal Reserve asset purchases, has pushed the question of whether or not the bond market is a bubble to Top of Mind.

Docklands: Shifting the market dynamic for Melbourne CBD office Australia ViewPoint ​SUMMARY Docklands has been the engine room of growth in the Melbourne CBD office market over the last decade or so and based on existing development will continue to be over 2013 and 2014. The historical strong growth has been well absorbed against a backdrop of strong conditions in the office occupier markets, which saw the Melbourne market outperform other capital cities in terms of space growth and yield. With occupier conditions now materially weaker, forthcoming supply in Docklands poses clear risks to CBD vacancy. To date, the market seems to be digesting this as part of a cyclical slowing, a rebalancing or “normalisation” after a period of strength, rather than posing a material risk to the long run performance of the Melbourne market. Yields have been relatively stable, particularly for premium assets. We think that is likely to remain the case through 2013 and 2014. Download full ...

Commerzbank Corporates & Markets Economic Research https://research.commerzbank.com Economic Briefing ZEW: Poor data cause concern among analysts The ZEW Index for economic expectations in Germany tumbled from 48.5 to 36.3 in April, which was a stronger fall than expected by most analysts. The camp of economic optimists has clearly shrunk. This was probably caused by the decline in sentiment indicators in March and the poor data from German industry. Even so, we still expect the German economy to pick up considerably in the coming months. This is likely to be confirmed by the purchasing managers’ index and the Ifo business climate – due next week – that should recover from March-setbacks. Analyst: Ulrike Rondorf

Eco Analysis - German ZEW survey fell in April (H. Amourda, B. Hilliard) ■ German ZEW survey fell in April Waiting for the WEO of the IMF, some key economic data were released this Tuesday. The German ZEW survey (economic sentiment) fell for the first time since November 2012, from 48.5 to 36.3 in April. On the inflation side, the final euro aggregate CPI inflation confirmed the flash estimate at 1.7% yoy while the UK CPI printed at 2.8% yoy in March. Looking ahead, we will watch closely the UK labour data and MPC minutes due to be released on Wednesday. The German ZEW survey reported a fall in both current situation (down 4.4 points to 9.2) and economic sentiment (down 12.2 points to 36.3). The Cyprus bail-in and questions on the euro area crisis management probably affected investors' sentiment. However, the balance of answers is still positive and points to an improvement of the economic growth in the next six months. Moreover, it is too early to expect a continued downwar...

Chile – Consumer confidence retreats in March. March consumer confidence fell to 56.8 from 58.1 in February. This was the lowest confidence level since a 53.4 print reached in November. However, compared with last March, consumer confidence improved 22.9%. We continue to expect a gradual moderation in domestic demand during the year, helping to keep inflation in check and the policy rate steady.

Economics Research | Asia Ex-Japan 15 April 2013 First Insights: China: Minister of Finance indicates policy easing unlikely The surprisingly weak Q1 GDP data in China have led to the important question: will the government loosen policy to stimulate the economy as it did in 2009 and 2012? We believe policy easing is not likely. An article published today by the newly-elected Minister of Finance Lou Jiwei reinforces our view.

SBA 504 Loan The US Small Business Administration 504 Loan or Certified Development Company program is designed to provide financing for the purchase of fixed assets, which usually means real estate, buildings and machinery, at below market rates.[1] As part of its mission to promote the development of businesses, the SBA offers a number of different loan programs tailored to specific capital needs of growing businesses. The 504 program works by distributing the loan among three parties. The business owner puts a minimum of 10%, a conventional lender (typically a bank) puts up 50%, and a so-called Certified Development Company (CDC) puts up the remaining 40%. Certified Development Companies are established under the 504 code as non-profit corporations set up to support economic growth in their local areas. There are a few hundred such CDCs nationwide.[2] The maximum amount of the loan is $5 million ($5 million for meeting SBA-defined policy goals, and $5.5 million for manufacturers a...

VIEWPOINTS April 2013 Don’t Pay Too Much for That Bordeaux - Or That Bond Jeff Helsing • ​The financial market’s reliance on ratings agencies and benchmarks, along with regulations, can cause distortions in the value of some securities. • These price distortions can create potential opportunities for some investors. • Investors should consider aligning capital allocation with outcome-oriented objectives that aren’t influenced by credit ratings or benchmarks. http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/Dont-Pay-Too-Much-for-That-Bordeaux-Or-That-Bond.aspx

http://www.studley.com/research-documents-search-results.htm?t=SERI Reports National SERI Report 2013 The Studley Effective Rent Index (SERI) provides the real estate industry with the only comprehensive, in-depth study of effective rental rate trends for prime Class A office properties in the nation’s major central business districts and selected suburban markets. Using completed transactions as its source, the SERI report offers “real world” numbers that reflect negotiated terms, including lease concessions and operating-expense information. This study focuses on the true cost of occupancy based on actual taking rents rather than on average asking rents. http://www.studley.com/research-documents-search-results.htm?t=SERI Reports

Chile In a broadly neutral statement – and as expected – the Central Bank of Chile (BCCh) kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.0%. The board maintained its data-dependent stance and further reinforced our call for the bank to remain on hold for the foreseeable future.

Commerzbank Corporates & Markets Economic Research https://research.commerzbank.com Economic Insight German Real Estate Monitor Residential property prises are rising strongly in German cities. We consider which house price indices are worth looking at and which indicators may warn of possible overheating of the market. The property market should continue to revive in the next few years, above all due to low interest rates. Even though a property bubble is less likely in Germany than it was in Spain or Ireland, the ECB’s long-standing expansionary monetary policy, maintained for the sake of the peripheral countries, poses significant long-term risks. Analyst: Ulrike Rondorf For important disclosure information, please see https://research.commerzbank.com/portal/en/site/equity/disclaimer_1/index.jsf

Quiet Start to 2013 for Central London Office Market 11 April 2013 Figures released today in Capita Symonds’ ‘Central London Overview Q1 Report’ show that the central London office market got off to a quiet start in 2013. http://www.capitasymonds.co.uk/news__events/latest_news/quiet_start_to_2013_for_centra.aspx

In the end, all business operations can be reduced to three words: people, products, and profits. People come first. Unless you've got a good team, you can't do much with the other two. - Lee Iacocca (1924- ) I constantly ask myself what the most important aspect in business is; Is it strategy, marketing, human resources or skill? Other than that, there are cultural significance, brand power and quality- which are also essential requirements to running a successful business. However, nowadays, I find myself appreciating the importance of human resources more- what do you think?

Poland: MPC dovish on economy and inflation, but in denial that swift rate cuts are needed Michal Dybula - Market Economics | 10 Apr 2013 16:06 The MPC left interest rates unchanged, in line with expectations. While the post-meeting statement highlighted the weakness of the economy and major disinflation, the Council made also clear that its upcoming decision will depend on the probability of inflation remaining considerably below the inflation target over the medium-run.

Melbourne Office Vacancies to Surge on Glut, Morgan Stanley Says By Nichola Saminather - Apr 8, 2013 Melbourne’s office vacancy rate will jump to about 11 percent this year from about 8 percent now, as supply outpaces demand, Morgan Stanley said. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-08/melbourne-office-vacancies-to-surge-on-glut-morgan-stanley-says.html

Melbourne office market joins high rise glut Posted by Unconventional Economist in Australian Property, Featured Article on April 8, 2013 | By Leith van Onselen This blog has spent a lot of time highlighting the looming oversupply of apartments facing Melbourne. Well, it appears that the office market is facing similar conditions, with Morgan Stanley today releasing research pointing to a big ramp-up in office construction and office vacancy rates over the next couple of years: http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/04/melbourne-office-market-joins-high-rise-glut/

http://news.theregistrysf.com/kidder-mathews-san-francisco-office-market-1st-quarter-2013/ Kidder Mathews: San Francisco Office Market – 1st Quarter 2013 Posted on April 8, 2013 by publisher in News Releases Market Overview Vacancy: DOWN from 9.5% to 9.2% Net Absorption: UP 367,259 Average Asking Rental Rates: UP from $38.17 to $39.02 New Office Construction: UP Notable Lease Transactions 1.101 Spear, Salesforce.com, 228,721 s.f. 2.1455 Market, Square Inc, 85,111 s.f. 3.760 Market, Obvious Corporation, 75,000 s.f. 4.60 Spear St, Rodan+Fields, 62,524 s.f. 5.1 Market, McKenna, Long & Aldridge, 42,288 s.f. (sublease)

http://www.colliers.com/en-us/sanfrancisco/insights 2013 | Q1 San Francisco Office Report >> After a record setting 2012, San Francisco started 2013 with a strong first quarter. The global economy continued to bounce back and San Francisco remains ahead of the pack as job growth and increased productivity due to technology enhancements have benefitted the office market. The first quarter marked the eleventh consecutive quarter of positive net absorption and vacancy is hovering at 10 percent citywide. Even more encouraging is the 1.2 million square feet of ground up office development currently under construction, driven by the city’s increased employment and leasing volume over the last 24 months. http://www.colliers.com/en-us/sanfrancisco/insights

Eco Analysis - February German IP expands by 0.5% (H. Amourda) Only a few key economic data were released this Monday. German Industrial production expanded by 0.5% mom in February, while the number for January was revised down markedly. For Q1, growth in industrial production is likely to be around 0, up with Q4, when it fell by 2.6% qoq. Based on a stronger recovery in private consumption, we still expect a robust rebound in GDP in Q1. In the euro area, the April Sentix investor survey fell further from -10.6 in March to -17.3. We now look forward the bulk of European IP data set to be released this week. Following the stronger than expected factory orders last week, at 2.3% mom, February industrial production surprised on the upside as well. Indeed, the industrial production printed at 0.5% mom (cons: 0.3). Looking at the components, the construction sector contracted by 2.7% mom, possibly affected by poor weather conditions. The Bundesbank report shows some pressures from the e...

Turkey: Gradual recovery in IP At 1.6% y/y, February’s industrial production (IP) index was slightly below the market consensus and our expectation of 2%. On a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis, IP increased by 1.5% m/m, following a rise of 2.4% m/m in January and offset the 3.5% m/m contraction in December. The weaker-than-expected IP data in February hint that the economic recovery is likely to be gradual and slower than envisaged, despite the CBRT’s monetary easing. Yet, we expect the pickup in the manufacturing activity to become more visible in Q2, as suggested by the strong pace of credit growth and above 50 PMI readings.

Chile: Feeble February Growth Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Latam Macro Snapshot | 05 Apr 2013 | Growth of real GDP, as measured by its monthly proxy Imacec, decelerated from 6.5% y/y in January to 3.8% y/y in February. This is in line with our 3.9% y/y forecasts but falls well short of the 4.8% y/y median estimate from the Bloomberg survey.

Texas Refinery Is Saudi Foothold in U.S. Market Published: Friday, 5 Apr 2013 | 9:21 AM ET By: By Clifford Krauss PORT ARTHUR, Tex. — It is hard to imagine the desert sands of the Persian Gulf being any farther away than from this swampy refinery port known for Cajun food, sport fishing and being the birthplace of Janis Joplin. But right in the middle of town stands a strategic outpost for Saudi Arabia's global ambitions, although one that the Saudis appear loath to publicize. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100618028

Investment opportunities in debt fund strategies Thu, 04/04/2013 - 11:13 Download the special report Investment opportunities in debt fund strategies BNP Paribas By James Williams – Prior to the global financial crisis the ability for European corporates to finance themselves via leveraged loans was dominated by a prevalence of collateralised loan obligations (CLOs): in 2007, at its peak, the CLO market bought up two thirds of the USD166billion of leveraged loans issued that year, according to ratings agency Standard & Poor’s. http://www.hedgeweek.com/2013/04/04/182608/investment-opportunities-debt-fund-strategies

US Hears Footsteps of Global Challengers in NatGas Boom Published: Thursday, 4 Apr 2013 | 2:15 PM ET By: Javier E. David Special to CNBC.com The United States, currently one of the world's largest sources of natural gas, may find itself fending off increasingly stiff competition in the resource's development, as the move to tap natural gas supplies goes global. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100617228

http://www.studley.com/research-documents-search-results.htm?l=San Francisco San Francisco SERI Report 2013 Total rent, $58.35, posted a 4.7% year-on-year increase. Net rent rose for the second year in a row, averaging $38.00. Electricity (+1.5%), real estate taxes (+2.0%) and operating expenses (+2.1%) all increased. http://www.studley.com/research-documents-search-results.htm?l=San Francisco

The United States of Oil By John Lippert - Apr 2, 2013 ◁ PREV NEXT ▷ 12 of 12 Millions of Barrels http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2013-04-02/the-united-states-of-oil.html#slide12

The United States of Oil By John Lippert - Apr 2, 2013 ◁ PREV NEXT ▷ 11 of 12 In the Zone http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2013-04-02/the-united-states-of-oil.html#slide11

The United States of Oil By John Lippert - Apr 2, 2013 ◁ PREV NEXT ▷ 10 of 12 From Ranch to Oilfield http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2013-04-02/the-united-states-of-oil.html#slide10

Pimco's Bill Gross Looks at the Man in the Mirror Published: Wednesday, 3 Apr 2013 | 10:08 AM ET By: John Carney Senior Editor, CNBC.com When Bill Gross looks in the mirror, what does he see? In his latest monthly "Investment Outlook" commentary, the Pimco chief waxes philosophical. He questions whether he and other legendary investors are really all they're cracked up to be. Maybe guys like Warren Buffett, George Soros, and Ray Dalio were just lucky guys in the right place at the right time. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100612898

The United States of Oil By John Lippert - Apr 2, 2013 ◁ PREV NEXT ▷ 9 of 12 Texas-Sized Potential http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2013-04-02/the-united-states-of-oil.html#slide9

The United States of Oil By John Lippert - Apr 2, 2013 ◁ PREV NEXT ▷ 8 of 12 Boosting Yield http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2013-04-02/the-united-states-of-oil.html#slide8

The United States of Oil By John Lippert - Apr 2, 2013 ◁ PREV NEXT ▷ 7 of 12 Separating the Mixture http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2013-04-02/the-united-states-of-oil.html#slide7

The United States of Oil By John Lippert - Apr 2, 2013 ◁ PREV NEXT ▷ 6 of 12 Operating Around the Clock http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2013-04-02/the-united-states-of-oil.html#slide6

How BP Is Joining Big Oil Retreat From Renewals Published: Wednesday, 3 Apr 2013 | 5:21 AM ET BP has put its U.S. wind farm operation, one of the largest in the country, up for sale, marking the continued retreat of big oil companies from renewable energy investments while oil and gas projects offer them better returns. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100611993

The United States of Oil By John Lippert - Apr 2, 2013 ◁ PREV NEXT ▷ 5 of 12 The Business of CO2 http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2013-04-02/the-united-states-of-oil.html#slide5

The United States of Oil By John Lippert - Apr 2, 2013 ◁ PREV NEXT ▷ 4 of 12 Targeting Deep Oil http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2013-04-02/the-united-states-of-oil.html#slide4

The United States of Oil By John Lippert - Apr 2, 2013 ◁ PREV NEXT ▷ 3 of 12 Priming the Permian Basin http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2013-04-02/the-united-states-of-oil.html#slide3

The United States of Oil By John Lippert - Apr 2, 2013 ◁ PREV NEXT ▷ 2 of 12 Capturing Carbon http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2013-04-02/the-united-states-of-oil.html#slide2

The United States of Oil By John Lippert - Apr 2, 2013 ◁ PREV NEXT ▷ 1 of 12 Energy Upheaval http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2013-04-02/the-united-states-of-oil.html#slide1

Chile: IPoM – Life is Good, Why Change? Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Latam Macro Snapshot | 02 Apr 2013 17:11 | The Monetary Policy Report (IPoM) released today makes it clear that the central bank (BCCh) will remain on hold for the foreseeable future as it expects trend growth and on-target inflation. The base scenario is as good as it gets but the BCCh remains mindful of risks. Nothing lasts forever. The IPoM’s key conclusions are supportive of our view that BCCh will remain on hold this year.

Chile: All Reasons Lead to a Longer Pause Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Latam Macro Snapshot | 01 Apr 2013 21:13 | According to the minutes of the 14 March monetary policy meeting, there are good reasons to cut and there are good reasons to hike. But, on balance, all reasons lead to a longer pause.

How the US Oil, Gas Boom Could Shake Up Global Order Published: Monday, 1 Apr 2013 | 11:28 AM ET By: Richard Engel and Robert Windrem, NBC News Without fanfare, China passed the United States in December to become the world's leading importer of oil—the first time in nearly 40 years that the U.S. didn't own that dubious distinction. That same month, North Dakota, Ohio and Pennsylvania together produced 1.5 million barrels of oil a day—more than Iran exported. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100606163

Chile – This week’s data would reflect soft activity in February. Focus will be on BCCh publications. CHILE Manufacturing output and retail sales growth decelerated in February, and the unemployment rate edged up two ticks to 6.2%. February data are providing partial evidence that the slowdown in activity from unsustainable levels that the central bank has been anticipating (and hoping for) may finally be happening. As such, they reduce the likelihood that monetary tightening will be required in the months ahead to cool the economy.