Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 05 Apr 2013 |
Growth of real GDP, as measured by its monthly proxy Imacec, decelerated from 6.5% y/y in January to 3.8% y/y in February. This is in line with our 3.9% y/y forecasts but falls well short of the 4.8% y/y median estimate from the Bloomberg survey.
4.8% y/y median estimate from the Bloomberg survey.
The 3-m moving average of growth declined to 5.5% y/y in February from 5.7% in the month before (Chart 1). The calendar effect (Chile had one less working day this February than in 2012) and strike-related supply disruptions had an adverse impact on growth in the month.
In monthly terms, real output contracted 0.1% m/m in February, and January growth was revised down from +0.1% m/m to -0.2% m/m. Real GDP is so far tracking 4.1% saar above Q4, providing support for the view that growth is slowing to sustainable levels (potential growth is estimated at 5.0%). We expect a rebound in growth in March as one-off factors that held back production in February disappear.
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