Chile: Two Activity Roads Diverged More
Nader Nazmi, Oscar Munoz - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 28 Jun 2013 18:26 | 242 Kb
Supply and demand data diverged further in May. Retail sales data showed continued strong consumer demand while manufacturing and IP data reflected slowing production. Manufacturing production declined 4.2% y/y in May, surprising our and market expectations projecting expansions of 1.3% and 1.7% y/y, respectively. The setback in manufacturing production was broad-based with eight of its thirteen divisions retreating in the month. Apart from being impacted by a high comparison base, the main contribution to the annual contraction came from lower production of chemicals (-12.6% y/y).
Showing posts with label Nader Nazmi. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nader Nazmi. Show all posts
Sunday, June 30, 2013
Thursday, May 30, 2013
Chile: Manufacturing is weakening, despite April bounce
Chile: Manufacturing is weakening, despite April bounce
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 30 May 2013 18:07 | 327 Kb
Manufacturing production expanded 3.4% y/y in April, in line with our 3.6% y/y call, and better than the consensus projection of 2.9% y/y. The main contribution to the annual gain came from increased production of processed food (+13.7% y/y). Despite the rebound, manufacturing growth in April is disappointing, especially given that this April had two more working days than April 2012.
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 30 May 2013 18:07 | 327 Kb
Manufacturing production expanded 3.4% y/y in April, in line with our 3.6% y/y call, and better than the consensus projection of 2.9% y/y. The main contribution to the annual gain came from increased production of processed food (+13.7% y/y). Despite the rebound, manufacturing growth in April is disappointing, especially given that this April had two more working days than April 2012.
Monday, May 20, 2013
Chile: Q1 Growth Disappoints
Chile: Q1 Growth Disappoints
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 20 May 2013 16:29 |
GDP growth came in 4.1% y/y in Q1, weaker than the consensus estimate of 4.5% and our own projection of 4.4%. On a quarterly basis, growth posted 0.50% q/q (sa) higher in Q1, in line with our 0.45 q/q call but weaker than 1.0% q/q consensus projection (Chart 1).
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 20 May 2013 16:29 |
GDP growth came in 4.1% y/y in Q1, weaker than the consensus estimate of 4.5% and our own projection of 4.4%. On a quarterly basis, growth posted 0.50% q/q (sa) higher in Q1, in line with our 0.45 q/q call but weaker than 1.0% q/q consensus projection (Chart 1).
Monday, May 13, 2013
Peru: Deteriorating terms of trade and trade balance in Q1
Peru: Deteriorating terms of trade and trade balance in Q1
Nader Nazmi, Oscar Munoz - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 13 May 2013 20:37 |
The trade balance shifted to a deficit of USD 29mn in Q1 from a surplus of USD 1.5bn in Q4. On a 12-month accumulated basis, Peru’s trade surplus narrowed to USD 3.4bn in March from USD 10.8bn a year ago.
Nader Nazmi, Oscar Munoz - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 13 May 2013 20:37 |
The trade balance shifted to a deficit of USD 29mn in Q1 from a surplus of USD 1.5bn in Q4. On a 12-month accumulated basis, Peru’s trade surplus narrowed to USD 3.4bn in March from USD 10.8bn a year ago.
Wednesday, May 8, 2013
Chile: Deeper Deflation than Expected
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 08 May 2013 14:04 |
Consumer prices declined 0.5% m/m in April. The monthly decline exceeded the 0.1% m/m drop that the consensus and we had anticipated. The main difference was a 2.0% m/m decline in transportation prices, which subtracted 0.4pp from headline inflation. The decline in transportation prices was driven by a 13.2% m/m drop in bus fares due to holiday-related factors.
Monday, May 6, 2013
Chile: Growth Disappoints in March and in Q1
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 06 May 2013 14:50 |
Chile’s monthly GDP (Imacec) fell well short of expectations with growth slowing to a 20-month low in March. Real GDP growth decelerated from 3.8% y/y in February to 3.1% y/y in March compared to the consensus and our projections of 4.7% y/y and 5.1% y/y, respectively. A 3.0% y/y contraction in manufacturing output was the main drag on growth, as expected. Growth in the service sector (+4.1% y/y), however, also disappointed. Mining output increased 6.9% y/y.
Sunday, April 7, 2013
Chile: Feeble February Growth
Chile: Feeble February Growth
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 05 Apr 2013 |
Growth of real GDP, as measured by its monthly proxy Imacec, decelerated from 6.5% y/y in January to 3.8% y/y in February. This is in line with our 3.9% y/y forecasts but falls well short of the 4.8% y/y median estimate from the Bloomberg survey.
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 05 Apr 2013 |
Growth of real GDP, as measured by its monthly proxy Imacec, decelerated from 6.5% y/y in January to 3.8% y/y in February. This is in line with our 3.9% y/y forecasts but falls well short of the 4.8% y/y median estimate from the Bloomberg survey.
Tuesday, April 2, 2013
Chile: IPoM – Life is Good, Why Change?
Chile: IPoM – Life is Good, Why Change?
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 02 Apr 2013 17:11 |
The Monetary Policy Report (IPoM) released today makes it clear that the central bank (BCCh) will remain on hold for the foreseeable future as it expects trend growth and on-target inflation. The base scenario is as good as it gets but the BCCh remains mindful of risks. Nothing lasts forever. The IPoM’s key conclusions are supportive of our view that BCCh will remain on hold this year.
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 02 Apr 2013 17:11 |
The Monetary Policy Report (IPoM) released today makes it clear that the central bank (BCCh) will remain on hold for the foreseeable future as it expects trend growth and on-target inflation. The base scenario is as good as it gets but the BCCh remains mindful of risks. Nothing lasts forever. The IPoM’s key conclusions are supportive of our view that BCCh will remain on hold this year.
Monday, April 1, 2013
Chile: All Reasons Lead to a Longer Pause
Chile: All Reasons Lead to a Longer Pause
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 01 Apr 2013 21:13 |
According to the minutes of the 14 March monetary policy meeting, there are good reasons to cut and there are good reasons to hike. But, on balance, all reasons lead to a longer pause.
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 01 Apr 2013 21:13 |
According to the minutes of the 14 March monetary policy meeting, there are good reasons to cut and there are good reasons to hike. But, on balance, all reasons lead to a longer pause.
Thursday, March 28, 2013
Chile: Signs of Growth Slowdown
Chile: Signs of Growth Slowdown
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 28 Mar 2013 13:33 |
Manufacturing output and retail sales growth decelerated in February and the unemployment rate edged up two ticks to 6.2%. February data are providing partial evidence that the slowdown in activity from unsustainable levels that the central bank has been anticipating (and hoping for) may be finally happening. As such, they reduce the likelihood that monetary tightening will be required in the months ahead to cool the economy.
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 28 Mar 2013 13:33 |
Manufacturing output and retail sales growth decelerated in February and the unemployment rate edged up two ticks to 6.2%. February data are providing partial evidence that the slowdown in activity from unsustainable levels that the central bank has been anticipating (and hoping for) may be finally happening. As such, they reduce the likelihood that monetary tightening will be required in the months ahead to cool the economy.
Saturday, March 2, 2013
Chile: Steady Rate as the Only Option, Despite Concerns
Chile: Steady Rate as the Only Option, Despite Concerns
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 01 Mar 2013 19:19 |
Neutral rate and stance. We read the minutes of the 14 February monetary policy meeting as broadly neutral regarding the short-term outlook, ruling out any changes in the policy rate for now. According to the minutes, the policy rate remains within a neutral range and the decision to keep it steady at 5.0% was unanimous.
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 01 Mar 2013 19:19 |
Neutral rate and stance. We read the minutes of the 14 February monetary policy meeting as broadly neutral regarding the short-term outlook, ruling out any changes in the policy rate for now. According to the minutes, the policy rate remains within a neutral range and the decision to keep it steady at 5.0% was unanimous.
Friday, March 1, 2013
Chile: Happy 2013 Beginning for Activity
Chile: Happy 2013 Beginning for Activity
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 28 Feb 2013 15:06 |
According to data releases today, the economy began the year on a strong note. In January, manufacturing output surprised to the upside, retail sales expanded rapidly and unemployment fell to a six-year low. The monthly proxy for real GDP (Imacec) due out next Tuesday is thus set to reflect rapid economic expansion in January. We project a 6.8% y/y rise in the Imacec in the first month of the year. Rapid growth supports our view that fiscal and monetary policies need to turn less accommodative to reduce the risk of overheating. Chile continues to exhibit strong growth
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 28 Feb 2013 15:06 |
According to data releases today, the economy began the year on a strong note. In January, manufacturing output surprised to the upside, retail sales expanded rapidly and unemployment fell to a six-year low. The monthly proxy for real GDP (Imacec) due out next Tuesday is thus set to reflect rapid economic expansion in January. We project a 6.8% y/y rise in the Imacec in the first month of the year. Rapid growth supports our view that fiscal and monetary policies need to turn less accommodative to reduce the risk of overheating. Chile continues to exhibit strong growth
Sunday, January 27, 2013
Mexico: December trade balance – Strong headline; weak results
Mexico: December trade balance – Strong headline; weak results
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 25 Jan 2013 17:12 | 81 Kb
Here is the good news. Mexico reported a December trade surplus of USD 962mn while the consensus was expecting a deficit of USD 936mn. Now, the not-so-good news. Both imports and exports were weak and the surplus is explained by the fact that imports were weaker than exports.
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 25 Jan 2013 17:12 | 81 Kb
Here is the good news. Mexico reported a December trade surplus of USD 962mn while the consensus was expecting a deficit of USD 936mn. Now, the not-so-good news. Both imports and exports were weak and the surplus is explained by the fact that imports were weaker than exports.
Monday, December 10, 2012
Chile: The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 10 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week.
CHILE
The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week. BCCh will have its monthly monetary policy meeting on Thursday. We expect no changes, in line with trends throughout most of the year. The consensus agrees with this view.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 10 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week.
CHILE
The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week. BCCh will have its monthly monetary policy meeting on Thursday. We expect no changes, in line with trends throughout most of the year. The consensus agrees with this view.
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Chile: Neutral minutes with a catch
Chile: Neutral minutes with a catch
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 28 Nov 2012 16:32 |
We read the minutes of the 13 November monetary policy meeting as broadly neutral regarding the short-term outlook, ruling out any changes in the policy rate over the next several months. Although inflation is not an issue at present, the minutes show some concern about latent price pressures given the economy’s strong momentum.
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 28 Nov 2012 16:32 |
We read the minutes of the 13 November monetary policy meeting as broadly neutral regarding the short-term outlook, ruling out any changes in the policy rate over the next several months. Although inflation is not an issue at present, the minutes show some concern about latent price pressures given the economy’s strong momentum.
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Mexico: Labour Reform Is Approved
Mexico: Labour Reform Is Approved
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 14 Nov 2012 16:32 |
Late last night the Senate passed a labour reform bill that had already been approved by the Chamber of Deputies. This bill will soon be signed into law by the outgoing President Felipe Calderon, ending years of failed efforts to reform Mexico’s labour market.
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 14 Nov 2012 16:32 |
Late last night the Senate passed a labour reform bill that had already been approved by the Chamber of Deputies. This bill will soon be signed into law by the outgoing President Felipe Calderon, ending years of failed efforts to reform Mexico’s labour market.
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