Established Melbourne office market faces short term headwinds from Docklands and interstate departees: CBRE
By Alistair Walsh
Wednesday, 29 August 2012
The office market in Melbourne faces strong short term headwinds with the landmark projects in the Docklands precinct coming to market soon while major Melbourne tenants contemplate moving interstate, according to CBRE.
http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/news/established-melbourne-office-market-faces-short-term-headwinds-from-docklands-and-interstate-departees-cbre/2012082956286
Sunday, December 30, 2012
Friday, December 28, 2012
LNG Sabine Pass Terminal Contract Signed
http://www.marinelink.com/
LNG Sabine Pass Terminal Contract Signed
Press ReleaseThursday, December 27, 2012
Cheniere Energy Partners' subsidiary Sabine Pass Liquefaction signs a LNG sale and purchase agreement with Total Gas & Power North America.
LNG Sabine Pass Terminal Contract Signed
Press ReleaseThursday, December 27, 2012
Cheniere Energy Partners' subsidiary Sabine Pass Liquefaction signs a LNG sale and purchase agreement with Total Gas & Power North America.
Commercial property investment in London hits five-year high
COMMERCIAL PROPERTY INVESTMENT IN LONDON HITS FIVE-YEAR HIGH
27 Dec, 2012, London
- Investment volumes for 2012 reach £13.57 billion - an increase of 25 per cent on 2011
- Highest level of investment since 2007
- City investment increases by more than a third
http://www.cushwake.com/cwglobal/jsp/newsDetail.jsp?Language=EN&repId=c57000007p&Country=GB
27 Dec, 2012, London
- Investment volumes for 2012 reach £13.57 billion - an increase of 25 per cent on 2011
- Highest level of investment since 2007
- City investment increases by more than a third
http://www.cushwake.com/cwglobal/jsp/newsDetail.jsp?Language=EN&repId=c57000007p&Country=GB
Thursday, December 27, 2012
S. Korea: Industrial Production (Nov 2012)
S. Korea: Industrial Production (Nov 2012)
Mole Hau - Market Economics
Asian Instant Insight | 28 Dec 2012 04:22 |
South Korean industrial data surprised significantly to the upside in November. The export-orientated electronics and auto sectors led the move higher as other components were broadly flat. With a fall in working days in December due to the Presidential election and Christmas holidays likely to have pushed forward production, the next release is likely to see some payback. The inventories/shipment ratio is also high and business confidence below average, suggesting overall production will remain below trend levels in the near term. We continue to expect a 25bp rate cut in January, as concerns over the health of the domestic economy outweigh evidence of improving conditions abroad.
Mole Hau - Market Economics
Asian Instant Insight | 28 Dec 2012 04:22 |
South Korean industrial data surprised significantly to the upside in November. The export-orientated electronics and auto sectors led the move higher as other components were broadly flat. With a fall in working days in December due to the Presidential election and Christmas holidays likely to have pushed forward production, the next release is likely to see some payback. The inventories/shipment ratio is also high and business confidence below average, suggesting overall production will remain below trend levels in the near term. We continue to expect a 25bp rate cut in January, as concerns over the health of the domestic economy outweigh evidence of improving conditions abroad.
Friday, December 21, 2012
$800 Million Loan Sought on Worldwide Plaza
$800 Million Loan Sought on Worldwide Plaza
12/21/2012
The owner of one of New York’s largest office towers is shopping for an $800 million fixed-rate loan.
http://www.cmalert.com/headlines.php?hid=160163
12/21/2012
The owner of one of New York’s largest office towers is shopping for an $800 million fixed-rate loan.
http://www.cmalert.com/headlines.php?hid=160163
U.S. Oil Services & Drilling: 2013 Outlook: The Mega-Cycle Rolls On
U.S. Oil Services & Drilling: 2013 Outlook: The Mega-Cycle Rolls On
Read the full report »
The mega cycle for the oil services industry will continue in 2013, in our view, though it remains largely obscured by concerns over the "fiscal cliff" in the U.S., an unsteady recovery in China, the ongoing debt saga in Europe and depressed equity valuations globally. Despite the macro anxieties, the reason to own oil services stocks remains clear, in our view: the world is increasingly short energy, hydrocarbon prices are at attractive levels for investment and are likely to rise further, CAPEX on energy investments is growing and, as the bottleneck, the oil services companies are likely to capture the lion's share of the economic benefit of this unfolding trend. We remain bullish on the oil services, equipment and drilling companies and expect the group to significantly outperform the broader equity market over the next several years.
Read the full report »
The mega cycle for the oil services industry will continue in 2013, in our view, though it remains largely obscured by concerns over the "fiscal cliff" in the U.S., an unsteady recovery in China, the ongoing debt saga in Europe and depressed equity valuations globally. Despite the macro anxieties, the reason to own oil services stocks remains clear, in our view: the world is increasingly short energy, hydrocarbon prices are at attractive levels for investment and are likely to rise further, CAPEX on energy investments is growing and, as the bottleneck, the oil services companies are likely to capture the lion's share of the economic benefit of this unfolding trend. We remain bullish on the oil services, equipment and drilling companies and expect the group to significantly outperform the broader equity market over the next several years.
M.D. Anderson snags prime tract in Energy Corridor
Dec 21, 2012, 5:00am CST
M.D. Anderson snags prime tract in Energy Corridor
Shaina Zucker
Reporter-
Houston Business Journal
Alongside the bustling traffic on Interstate 10, an unscathed tract of land in the Energy Corridor has beckoned developers for more than four decades.
http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/print-edition/2012/12/21/md-anderson-snags-prime-tract-in.html
M.D. Anderson snags prime tract in Energy Corridor
Shaina Zucker
Reporter-
Houston Business Journal
Alongside the bustling traffic on Interstate 10, an unscathed tract of land in the Energy Corridor has beckoned developers for more than four decades.
http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/print-edition/2012/12/21/md-anderson-snags-prime-tract-in.html
Thursday, December 20, 2012
2013 U.S. High Yield Default Outlook
Fitchratings.com
2013 U.S. High Yield Default Outlook
Fitch Ratings projects that the U.S. high yield default rate will remain low in 2013. However, the rate needs to be viewed with caution as more of a lagging rather than leading indicator of credit conditions.
2013 U.S. High Yield Default Outlook
Fitch Ratings projects that the U.S. high yield default rate will remain low in 2013. However, the rate needs to be viewed with caution as more of a lagging rather than leading indicator of credit conditions.
Asia Insights: China: Mixed signals from leading indicators
Fixed Income | Asia Ex-Japan
21 December 2012
Asia Insights: China: Mixed signals from leading indicators
· Nomura's China leading indicator fell in November, but we expect it to pickup in December (Bloomberg ticker: NMEICLI).
· Our heatmap continues to improve, with 67% of indicators positive in November, up from a revised 65% in October.
· We expect growth momentum to continue to build, and maintain our above-consensus GDP forecasts for 4Q and Q1 2013.
21 December 2012
Asia Insights: China: Mixed signals from leading indicators
· Nomura's China leading indicator fell in November, but we expect it to pickup in December (Bloomberg ticker: NMEICLI).
· Our heatmap continues to improve, with 67% of indicators positive in November, up from a revised 65% in October.
· We expect growth momentum to continue to build, and maintain our above-consensus GDP forecasts for 4Q and Q1 2013.
In Race to Recover Peak Commercial Real Estate Values, Boston on Top, Followed by Manhattan
World Property Channel
In Race to Recover Peak Commercial Real Estate Values, Boston on Top, Followed by Manhattan
Posted by Hortense Leon 11/20/12 11:00 AM EST
Commercial real estate prices in Manhattan over the 12 months ending September 30th were up 16.3%, according to Moody's/RCA Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI). What this means is that New York has joined the exclusive club of major metropolitan areas with the greatest price gains in that period, Boston being the only other market in that category.
In Race to Recover Peak Commercial Real Estate Values, Boston on Top, Followed by Manhattan
Posted by Hortense Leon 11/20/12 11:00 AM EST
Commercial real estate prices in Manhattan over the 12 months ending September 30th were up 16.3%, according to Moody's/RCA Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI). What this means is that New York has joined the exclusive club of major metropolitan areas with the greatest price gains in that period, Boston being the only other market in that category.
Chile Central Bank Gives 'Yellow Card' to Real Estate Sector
World Property Channel
Chile Central Bank Gives 'Yellow Card' to Real Estate Sector
Posted by Darin Bifani 12/20/12 10:46 AM EST
Apart from the famous asado, one of the great Chilean national pastimes is soccer. Rather than one of the players on the famous Universidad de Chile or Colo-Colo teams, however, the most recent recipient of a yellow card was the Chilean real estate sector.
Chile Central Bank Gives 'Yellow Card' to Real Estate Sector
Posted by Darin Bifani 12/20/12 10:46 AM EST
Apart from the famous asado, one of the great Chilean national pastimes is soccer. Rather than one of the players on the famous Universidad de Chile or Colo-Colo teams, however, the most recent recipient of a yellow card was the Chilean real estate sector.
Wednesday, December 19, 2012
A Crucial Leading Indicator Of Commercial Real Estate Hits Its Best Level Since 2007
A Crucial Leading Indicator Of Commercial Real Estate Hits Its Best Level Since 2007
Dec. 19, 2012, 1:07 PM
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.
From AIA: Architecture Billings Index Signaling Gains for Fourth Straight Month
Billings at architecture firms across the country continue to increase. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the November ABI score was 53.2, up from the mark of 52.8 in October. This score reflects an increase in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 59.6, up slightly from the 59.4 mark of the previous month.
Dec. 19, 2012, 1:07 PM
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.
From AIA: Architecture Billings Index Signaling Gains for Fourth Straight Month
Billings at architecture firms across the country continue to increase. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the November ABI score was 53.2, up from the mark of 52.8 in October. This score reflects an increase in demand for design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 59.6, up slightly from the 59.4 mark of the previous month.
PIMCO Cyclical Outlook for the U.S.: Will Washington’s Choices Foster or Frustrate Growth?
PIMCO Cyclical Outlook for the U.S.: Will Washington’s Choices Foster or Frustrate Growth?
· We expect U.S. growth in the range of 1.25% to 1.75% over the cyclical horizon, and housing will be an important component.
· We expect U.S. growth in the range of 1.25% to 1.75% over the cyclical horizon, and housing will be an important component.
PIMCO’s Cyclical Outlook for Asia: Awaiting the Policy Breakthrough
A new Economic Outlook Q&A with Tomoya Masanao, Robert Mead and Ramin Toloui is now available on pimco.com.
PIMCO’s Cyclical Outlook for Asia: Awaiting the Policy Breakthrough
· The cyclical economic outlook for 2013 is unusually dependent upon whether we see a structural policy breakthrough somewhere in the world.
PIMCO’s Cyclical Outlook for Asia: Awaiting the Policy Breakthrough
· The cyclical economic outlook for 2013 is unusually dependent upon whether we see a structural policy breakthrough somewhere in the world.
Turnaround Continues for CMBS Market in 2013, But Fiscal Cliff Bears Watching
World Property Channel
Turnaround Continues for CMBS Market in 2013, But Fiscal Cliff Bears Watching
Posted by Hortense Leon 12/19/12 8:59 AM EST
The commercial real estate market, and the U.S. CMBS market in particular, are likely to see steady improvement in the New Year, says Huxley Somerville, head of US CMBS at Fitch Ratings in New York. "A slow increase in volume is preferable; we would not like to see a 50% increase over 2012," he says. "A 15% to 20% increase would be much better. Otherwise, competition would lead to the erosion of underwriting standards."
Turnaround Continues for CMBS Market in 2013, But Fiscal Cliff Bears Watching
Posted by Hortense Leon 12/19/12 8:59 AM EST
The commercial real estate market, and the U.S. CMBS market in particular, are likely to see steady improvement in the New Year, says Huxley Somerville, head of US CMBS at Fitch Ratings in New York. "A slow increase in volume is preferable; we would not like to see a 50% increase over 2012," he says. "A 15% to 20% increase would be much better. Otherwise, competition would lead to the erosion of underwriting standards."
Tuesday, December 18, 2012
Is 2013 the Year of $50 Oil and $1,200 Gold?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100323544
Is 2013 the Year of $50 Oil and $1,200 Gold?
Published: Tuesday, 18 Dec 2012 | 4:29 AM ET
By: Catherine Boyle
Staff Writer, CNBC.com
Drastic falls in the price of oil and gold, doubling of the yield in 30-year Treasurys and mass nationalizations in Japan's struggling electronics industry may be on the agenda next year.
Is 2013 the Year of $50 Oil and $1,200 Gold?
Published: Tuesday, 18 Dec 2012 | 4:29 AM ET
By: Catherine Boyle
Staff Writer, CNBC.com
Drastic falls in the price of oil and gold, doubling of the yield in 30-year Treasurys and mass nationalizations in Japan's struggling electronics industry may be on the agenda next year.
Monday, December 17, 2012
Chile: The monetary policy report will attract attention this week.
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 17 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: The monetary policy report will attract attention this week.
CHILE
In a week with no economic data scheduled to be released, the monetary policy report (IPoM) will attract attention. The central bank is scheduled to unveil the IPoM on Tuesday. While the monetary authority has continued to signal lately that it remains comfortably on hold near term, the IPoM will be looked at closely for relevant information on the official views about the medium-term outlook for growth and inflation. In particular, potential changes to the official real GDP and CPI forecasts will attract attention. The official characterization of the recent moderation in the sequential pace of real GDP will be also worth reading, as well as trends for the current account result. Recall that several comments on the widening current account deficits have been made recently by authorities.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 17 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: The monetary policy report will attract attention this week.
CHILE
In a week with no economic data scheduled to be released, the monetary policy report (IPoM) will attract attention. The central bank is scheduled to unveil the IPoM on Tuesday. While the monetary authority has continued to signal lately that it remains comfortably on hold near term, the IPoM will be looked at closely for relevant information on the official views about the medium-term outlook for growth and inflation. In particular, potential changes to the official real GDP and CPI forecasts will attract attention. The official characterization of the recent moderation in the sequential pace of real GDP will be also worth reading, as well as trends for the current account result. Recall that several comments on the widening current account deficits have been made recently by authorities.
Saturday, December 15, 2012
Buoyed by the rebounding auto sector, local industry is showing growth
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE
Buoyed by the rebounding auto sector, local industry is showing growth
By Norman DeBono, The London Free Press
Friday, December 14, 2012 6:53:11 EST PM
Led by the industrial sector, the commercial real estate market in the London area is showing encouraging signs.
Buoyed by the rebounding auto sector, local industry is showing growth
By Norman DeBono, The London Free Press
Friday, December 14, 2012 6:53:11 EST PM
Led by the industrial sector, the commercial real estate market in the London area is showing encouraging signs.
Friday, December 14, 2012
US Outlook 2013
US Outlook 2013
Bulent Baygun,Interest Rate Team - Rates
Desknotes US | 14 Dec 2012 15:29 |
Summary
We are facing a period of increased demand for high-quality paper, which should
keep funds flowing into Treasuries, agencies, mortgages and SSAs.
Bulent Baygun,Interest Rate Team - Rates
Desknotes US | 14 Dec 2012 15:29 |
Summary
We are facing a period of increased demand for high-quality paper, which should
keep funds flowing into Treasuries, agencies, mortgages and SSAs.
Global inflation outlook 2013
Global inflation outlook 2013
Azusa Kato,David Tinsley,Dominique Barbet,Gizem Kara,Jacqueline Rong,Jeremy Lawson,Marcelo Carvalho,Ryutaro Kono,Xingdong Chen - Market Economics
Economic Desknote Global | 14 Dec 2012 12:52 |
Summary
Global Outlook
We expect global inflation in 2013 to remain broadly unchanged from 2012, at around 3½%. Inflation rates will vary between regions and countries, though. Although inflation should remain stable around 2% in the higher-income economies, emerging and developing economies are likely to see inflation edge up slightly, to 5.4% from 5.2% in 2012. Among the advanced economies, US inflation is likely to remain broadly stable at around 2% in 2013, while in the eurozone, we expect inflation to slow to 1.6% in 2013 from 2.5% in 2012. Among the major emerging economies, Asia ex-Japan and Latin America should see inflation inch up next year. Most notably, our forecast for Brazil suggests that inflation is likely to be much more of a headache than people think.
Azusa Kato,David Tinsley,Dominique Barbet,Gizem Kara,Jacqueline Rong,Jeremy Lawson,Marcelo Carvalho,Ryutaro Kono,Xingdong Chen - Market Economics
Economic Desknote Global | 14 Dec 2012 12:52 |
Summary
Global Outlook
We expect global inflation in 2013 to remain broadly unchanged from 2012, at around 3½%. Inflation rates will vary between regions and countries, though. Although inflation should remain stable around 2% in the higher-income economies, emerging and developing economies are likely to see inflation edge up slightly, to 5.4% from 5.2% in 2012. Among the advanced economies, US inflation is likely to remain broadly stable at around 2% in 2013, while in the eurozone, we expect inflation to slow to 1.6% in 2013 from 2.5% in 2012. Among the major emerging economies, Asia ex-Japan and Latin America should see inflation inch up next year. Most notably, our forecast for Brazil suggests that inflation is likely to be much more of a headache than people think.
London office market: Good prospects from 2014
London office market: Good prospects from 2014
In its latest research paper, Henderson’s c. £12.4 billion Property business, examines prospects for the Central London office market. The report notes that City Fringe, West End and Midtown sub-markets have benefitted from strong take up by technology, media and telecommunications firms during an otherwise difficult year for the domestic economy. Core City take up has been dominated by lettings from the insurance sector with very subdued activity from banking. Underlying City take-up has been relatively stable over the last 12 months or so, at around 75% of the long run average. This sub-par level of activity is expected to persist while low confidence and volatility persists in the markets.
http://www.property-magazine.eu/london-office-market-good-prospects-from-2014-23396.html
In its latest research paper, Henderson’s c. £12.4 billion Property business, examines prospects for the Central London office market. The report notes that City Fringe, West End and Midtown sub-markets have benefitted from strong take up by technology, media and telecommunications firms during an otherwise difficult year for the domestic economy. Core City take up has been dominated by lettings from the insurance sector with very subdued activity from banking. Underlying City take-up has been relatively stable over the last 12 months or so, at around 75% of the long run average. This sub-par level of activity is expected to persist while low confidence and volatility persists in the markets.
http://www.property-magazine.eu/london-office-market-good-prospects-from-2014-23396.html
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Brazil: Retail sales – Moving up in a non-linear pace
Brazil: Retail sales – Moving up in a non-linear pace
Gustavo Arruda - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 13 Dec 2012 13:52 |
October retail sales grew 0.9%m/m, slightly above consensus of +0.8m/m and better than the September reading of 0.3%. Within sectors, three of ten sectors contracted (apparel contracted for the third month in a row). Durable goods (the most credit-related component) gained 1.4%m/m or 13.0%y/y, while non-durable goods expanded 0.1%m/m or 6.7%y/y. Broad retail sales (including construction and vehicles sales) jumped 8%m/m in October from -8.7%m/m a month earlier, due to tax breaks on vehicles sales. Looking forward, we expect retail sales to decelerate in November due to an unusually extended holiday, but they should bounce back in December. Despite volatility in these releases, we believe the trend in retail sales will probably strengthen, on the back of monetary, fiscal and credit measures - all focused on spurring growth.
Gustavo Arruda - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 13 Dec 2012 13:52 |
October retail sales grew 0.9%m/m, slightly above consensus of +0.8m/m and better than the September reading of 0.3%. Within sectors, three of ten sectors contracted (apparel contracted for the third month in a row). Durable goods (the most credit-related component) gained 1.4%m/m or 13.0%y/y, while non-durable goods expanded 0.1%m/m or 6.7%y/y. Broad retail sales (including construction and vehicles sales) jumped 8%m/m in October from -8.7%m/m a month earlier, due to tax breaks on vehicles sales. Looking forward, we expect retail sales to decelerate in November due to an unusually extended holiday, but they should bounce back in December. Despite volatility in these releases, we believe the trend in retail sales will probably strengthen, on the back of monetary, fiscal and credit measures - all focused on spurring growth.
Chile: BCCh remained on hold, as expected; all eyes on the IPoM next week
Chile: BCCh remained on hold, as expected; all eyes on the IPoM next week
Florencia Vazquez - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 13 Dec 2012 22:52 |
Chile’s central bank decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 5% at today’s monetary policy meeting. The decision stood in line with both our forecast and the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey.
Florencia Vazquez - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 13 Dec 2012 22:52 |
Chile’s central bank decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 5% at today’s monetary policy meeting. The decision stood in line with both our forecast and the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey.
CBD Office Buildings Outperforms Other Commercial Sectors in the U.S.
World Property Channel
EDITION MAIN PAGE | North America Commercial News
CBD Office Buildings Outperforms Other Commercial Sectors in the U.S.
Posted by Hortense Leon 12/13/12 10:40 AM EST
CBD office real estate prices in the US continue to out-shine other core commercial sectors, including suburban office, industrial and retail, according to Moody's/RCA Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) report for October, which includes data from August, September and October 2012 (the latest data available for the CPPI). This reflects strong institutional demand even as there was a 1.0% decline in core commercial overall as measured by the CPPI.
EDITION MAIN PAGE | North America Commercial News
CBD Office Buildings Outperforms Other Commercial Sectors in the U.S.
Posted by Hortense Leon 12/13/12 10:40 AM EST
CBD office real estate prices in the US continue to out-shine other core commercial sectors, including suburban office, industrial and retail, according to Moody's/RCA Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) report for October, which includes data from August, September and October 2012 (the latest data available for the CPPI). This reflects strong institutional demand even as there was a 1.0% decline in core commercial overall as measured by the CPPI.
Venezuela: President Chavez faces a tough recovery process.
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Venezuela: President Chavez faces a tough recovery process.
VENEZUELA
President Chavez faces a tough recovery process, Vice President Maduro said. Vice President Maduro said yesterday in a national address that while the president’s surgery was successful, it was also delicate and complex. As a result, President Chavez faces a difficult recovery process.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Venezuela: President Chavez faces a tough recovery process.
VENEZUELA
President Chavez faces a tough recovery process, Vice President Maduro said. Vice President Maduro said yesterday in a national address that while the president’s surgery was successful, it was also delicate and complex. As a result, President Chavez faces a difficult recovery process.
Argentina: The group of interested non-parties in lawsuit in US courts gets larger.
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Argentina: The group of interested non-parties in lawsuit in US courts gets larger.
ARGENTINA
Another fund joins the group of interested non-parties to appeal the District Court orders adversely affecting Argentina. Fintech Advisory Inc. filed a brief before the Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, thus joining the group of interested non-parties appealing Judge Griesa's ruling that lifted the stay in place and ordered Argentina to make a payment into an escrow account for the benefit of holdout creditors. Unless this payment was made, the Judge made it impossible for Argentina to continue servicing performing debt issued in the two 2005 and 2010 debt exchanges. The stay was later reinstated by the Appeals Court.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Argentina: The group of interested non-parties in lawsuit in US courts gets larger.
ARGENTINA
Another fund joins the group of interested non-parties to appeal the District Court orders adversely affecting Argentina. Fintech Advisory Inc. filed a brief before the Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, thus joining the group of interested non-parties appealing Judge Griesa's ruling that lifted the stay in place and ordered Argentina to make a payment into an escrow account for the benefit of holdout creditors. Unless this payment was made, the Judge made it impossible for Argentina to continue servicing performing debt issued in the two 2005 and 2010 debt exchanges. The stay was later reinstated by the Appeals Court.
Chile: The central bank is expected to remain on hold today.
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: The central bank is expected to remain on hold today.
CHILE
The central bank is expected to remain on hold today. BCCh will have its monthly monetary policy meeting this afternoon. We forecast no changes, in line with trends throughout most of the year. The consensus agrees with this view.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: The central bank is expected to remain on hold today.
CHILE
The central bank is expected to remain on hold today. BCCh will have its monthly monetary policy meeting this afternoon. We forecast no changes, in line with trends throughout most of the year. The consensus agrees with this view.
Colombia: Imports rebound in October and reflect improved domestic demand.
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Colombia: Imports rebound in October and reflect improved domestic demand.
COLOMBIA
Imports rebounded in October. Imports increased to USD 5.2bn in October from USD 4.8bn in the year-ago period, reflecting a 7.8% y/y increase. Imports rose 8.6% in the first eight months of the year over the same period in 2011.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Colombia: Imports rebound in October and reflect improved domestic demand.
COLOMBIA
Imports rebounded in October. Imports increased to USD 5.2bn in October from USD 4.8bn in the year-ago period, reflecting a 7.8% y/y increase. Imports rose 8.6% in the first eight months of the year over the same period in 2011.
Mexico: October IP data point to continued growth moderation into Q4.
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Mexico: October IP data point to continued growth moderation into Q4.
MEXICO
October IP data signal continued moderation in activity. Industrial production expanded 3.6% y/y in October, exceeding September’s 2.4% rise and coming in slightly better than the consensus expectation of 3.4% and our 3.0% projections. The manufacturing sector’s growth accelerated to 5.0% y/y from 1.9% y/y in October.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Mexico: October IP data point to continued growth moderation into Q4.
MEXICO
October IP data signal continued moderation in activity. Industrial production expanded 3.6% y/y in October, exceeding September’s 2.4% rise and coming in slightly better than the consensus expectation of 3.4% and our 3.0% projections. The manufacturing sector’s growth accelerated to 5.0% y/y from 1.9% y/y in October.
Brazil: Today, retail sales will probably prove robust again
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Brazil: Today, retail sales will probably prove robust again.
BRAZIL
We expect real retail sales to increase 1.2% in monthly terms, judging by coincident indicators. This represents annual growth of 9.8% y/y. Broad retail sales, which includes vehicles and construction spending, will show robust growth in monthly and annual terms, due to tax breaks.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Brazil: Today, retail sales will probably prove robust again.
BRAZIL
We expect real retail sales to increase 1.2% in monthly terms, judging by coincident indicators. This represents annual growth of 9.8% y/y. Broad retail sales, which includes vehicles and construction spending, will show robust growth in monthly and annual terms, due to tax breaks.
PIMCO Cyclical Outlook: At Policy Crossroads
PIMCO Cyclical Outlook: At Policy Crossroads
Key Points:
· The global economy is in the midst of a cyclical slowdown driven by both economics and politics.
· The maturation of the global cyclical growth phase suggests we look to a handoff to more secular drivers of growth. But strong secular drivers remain elusive due to the continuation of New Normal headwinds.
· Policies are at important crossroads in every major economy. Developed countries are struggling to find the right fiscal and monetary policy mix between cyclical stimulus and secular normality, while developing economies’ export-led models face a multitude of pressures.
· 2013 will be the year of policy change, with policymakers in major economies challenged to enact structural changes that spur private sector growth before government-balance-sheet-led growth is exhausted.
Key Points:
· The global economy is in the midst of a cyclical slowdown driven by both economics and politics.
· The maturation of the global cyclical growth phase suggests we look to a handoff to more secular drivers of growth. But strong secular drivers remain elusive due to the continuation of New Normal headwinds.
· Policies are at important crossroads in every major economy. Developed countries are struggling to find the right fiscal and monetary policy mix between cyclical stimulus and secular normality, while developing economies’ export-led models face a multitude of pressures.
· 2013 will be the year of policy change, with policymakers in major economies challenged to enact structural changes that spur private sector growth before government-balance-sheet-led growth is exhausted.
US Shale Not a Threat to Stable EMEA Oil and Gas Outlook
13 Dec 2012 10:18 AM
US Shale Not a Threat to Stable EMEA Oil and Gas Outlook
Link to Fitch Ratings' Report: 2013 Outlook: EMEA Oil and Gas
Fitch Ratings-London-13 December 2012: Cheap US shale gas is not a material threat to the EMEA oil and gas sector in 2013, Fitch Ratings says. A lack of US export infrastructure, a political desire for the US to be self-sufficient in gas, and the prevalence of long-term oil-based gas supply contracts in Europe all suggest at worst modest downward pressure on European prices in the short to medium term.
US Shale Not a Threat to Stable EMEA Oil and Gas Outlook
Link to Fitch Ratings' Report: 2013 Outlook: EMEA Oil and Gas
Fitch Ratings-London-13 December 2012: Cheap US shale gas is not a material threat to the EMEA oil and gas sector in 2013, Fitch Ratings says. A lack of US export infrastructure, a political desire for the US to be self-sufficient in gas, and the prevalence of long-term oil-based gas supply contracts in Europe all suggest at worst modest downward pressure on European prices in the short to medium term.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Turkey: No surprises on c/a deficit
Turkey: No surprises on c/a deficit
At USD 1.96bn, current account deficit was slightly below the market consensus (USD 2.1bn) and our forecast (USD 2.0bn) in October. As a result, 12-month cumulative current account deficit declined to USD 53.1bn from USD 55.7bn in September. Similarly, 12-month cumulative non-energy current account deficit fell to USD 1.4bn, from USD 3.9bn. Net gold exports continued to support the narrowing in the current account deficit. 12-month cumulative net gold exports amounted to USD 5.2bn, from USD 3.7bn in September. Current account deficit, excluding gold and energy also continued to improve, partly reflecting the holiday effect in October.
At USD 1.96bn, current account deficit was slightly below the market consensus (USD 2.1bn) and our forecast (USD 2.0bn) in October. As a result, 12-month cumulative current account deficit declined to USD 53.1bn from USD 55.7bn in September. Similarly, 12-month cumulative non-energy current account deficit fell to USD 1.4bn, from USD 3.9bn. Net gold exports continued to support the narrowing in the current account deficit. 12-month cumulative net gold exports amounted to USD 5.2bn, from USD 3.7bn in September. Current account deficit, excluding gold and energy also continued to improve, partly reflecting the holiday effect in October.
Chile: Consumer confidence remained in optimistic territory in November
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 12 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: Consumer confidence remained in optimistic territory in November.
CHILE
Consumer confidence remained in optimistic territory in November. Consumer confidence rose to 53.4 last month, according to Adimark. This is the sixth straight month with consumer sentiment readings above the 50 neutral level.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 12 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: Consumer confidence remained in optimistic territory in November.
CHILE
Consumer confidence remained in optimistic territory in November. Consumer confidence rose to 53.4 last month, according to Adimark. This is the sixth straight month with consumer sentiment readings above the 50 neutral level.
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
U.S. Commercial, Multi-family Mortgage Debt Outstanding Increases for Fourth Consecutive Quarter
World Property Channel
U.S. Commercial, Multi-family Mortgage Debt Outstanding Increases for Fourth Consecutive Quarter
Posted by David Barley 12/11/12 1:10 PM EST
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased by $6.6 billion, or 0.3 percent, in the third quarter of 2012, as three of the four major investor groups increased their holdings.
U.S. Commercial, Multi-family Mortgage Debt Outstanding Increases for Fourth Consecutive Quarter
Posted by David Barley 12/11/12 1:10 PM EST
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the level of commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding increased by $6.6 billion, or 0.3 percent, in the third quarter of 2012, as three of the four major investor groups increased their holdings.
Eco Analysis - More evidence of China in early-cycle expansion
Eco Analysis - More evidence of China in early-cycle expansion
■ Strong fiscal revenue growth
China's fiscal revenue growth rebounded further to 21.9%yoy in November from 13.7%yoy in October, the fastest pace since August 2011. More importantly, tax revenues grew 21.1%yoy, compared with 12.5%yoy in the previous month and 9%yoy during the first ten months. Value-added tax, which contributes one-quarter of total tax revenues, recovered quite strongly and grew 16.2%yoy in November (vs. 9.2%yoy in October), consistent with the improving trend in industrial and retail sales. The strength of fiscal revenue is another piece of evidence that the Chinese economy is recovering.
■ Strong fiscal revenue growth
China's fiscal revenue growth rebounded further to 21.9%yoy in November from 13.7%yoy in October, the fastest pace since August 2011. More importantly, tax revenues grew 21.1%yoy, compared with 12.5%yoy in the previous month and 9%yoy during the first ten months. Value-added tax, which contributes one-quarter of total tax revenues, recovered quite strongly and grew 16.2%yoy in November (vs. 9.2%yoy in October), consistent with the improving trend in industrial and retail sales. The strength of fiscal revenue is another piece of evidence that the Chinese economy is recovering.
Monday, December 10, 2012
Chile: The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 10 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week.
CHILE
The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week. BCCh will have its monthly monetary policy meeting on Thursday. We expect no changes, in line with trends throughout most of the year. The consensus agrees with this view.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 10 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week.
CHILE
The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week. BCCh will have its monthly monetary policy meeting on Thursday. We expect no changes, in line with trends throughout most of the year. The consensus agrees with this view.
Turkey: GDP Surprises on the Downside
Turkey: GDP Surprises on the Downside
At 1.6% y/y, Q3 GDP growth was weaker than the expectations (2.6% y/y) and our forecast (3.2% y/y). On a seasonally adjusted basis GDP grew by 0.2% q/q in Q3, broadly in line with our expectation. The downward surprise in the headline growth number was mostly on the back of weaker-than-expected private investment and exports. The contribution of private sector investment was -2.2pp to growth. The expansion in exports slowed down to 11.9% y/y in Q3 from 20.9% y/y in Q2, still the contribution of foreign demand was 3.4pp. Consumption of households subtracted 0.4pp from growth whereas public sector spending contributed 0.8pp to growth. At the same time, Q1 GDP growth was revised to 3.4% from 3.3%, and Q2 GDP growth to 3% from 2.9%.
At 1.6% y/y, Q3 GDP growth was weaker than the expectations (2.6% y/y) and our forecast (3.2% y/y). On a seasonally adjusted basis GDP grew by 0.2% q/q in Q3, broadly in line with our expectation. The downward surprise in the headline growth number was mostly on the back of weaker-than-expected private investment and exports. The contribution of private sector investment was -2.2pp to growth. The expansion in exports slowed down to 11.9% y/y in Q3 from 20.9% y/y in Q2, still the contribution of foreign demand was 3.4pp. Consumption of households subtracted 0.4pp from growth whereas public sector spending contributed 0.8pp to growth. At the same time, Q1 GDP growth was revised to 3.4% from 3.3%, and Q2 GDP growth to 3% from 2.9%.
Colombia Weekly
Colombia Weekly
Economics/FX/Interest Rate Teams,Rodrigo Fuenmayor,William Pereira - FX/Rates
Colombia Weekly | 10 Dec 2012 16:12 |
Summary
The minutes show the BanRep’s resolve to remain on hold for a while.
The minutes of November’s meeting (when the bank cut its policy rate by 25bp) appear very similar to the minutes of the October meeting (when the board remained on hold). Both sets of minutes are broadly neutral, in our view.
Economics/FX/Interest Rate Teams,Rodrigo Fuenmayor,William Pereira - FX/Rates
Colombia Weekly | 10 Dec 2012 16:12 |
Summary
The minutes show the BanRep’s resolve to remain on hold for a while.
The minutes of November’s meeting (when the bank cut its policy rate by 25bp) appear very similar to the minutes of the October meeting (when the board remained on hold). Both sets of minutes are broadly neutral, in our view.
Eco Analysis - Disappointing data across Asia: CH trade, AU home loans, JP in recession (K. Baader, W. Yao, K. Katahira)
Eco Analysis - Disappointing data across Asia: CH trade, AU home loans, JP in recession (K. Baader, W. Yao, K. Katahira)
■ Disappointing China's trade data reflected structural weakness in both external and domestic demand.
Contrary to the activity data released over the weekend, China's trade growth in November disappointed, with exports growing 2.9%yoy (Cons. 9%, SG 7%, Previous 11.9%) and imports flat yoy (Cons. 2%, SG 0%, Previous 2.4%). As a result of weak exports, the trade surplus also came in smaller than expected at USD19.6bn (Cons. & SG, USD26.8bn), down from USD32bn in October.
■ Disappointing China's trade data reflected structural weakness in both external and domestic demand.
Contrary to the activity data released over the weekend, China's trade growth in November disappointed, with exports growing 2.9%yoy (Cons. 9%, SG 7%, Previous 11.9%) and imports flat yoy (Cons. 2%, SG 0%, Previous 2.4%). As a result of weak exports, the trade surplus also came in smaller than expected at USD19.6bn (Cons. & SG, USD26.8bn), down from USD32bn in October.
Asia Insights: China: Exports slowed but domestic demand remains stron
Fixed Income | Asia Ex-Japan
10 December 2012
Asia Insights: China: Exports slowed but domestic demand remains strong
·China’s export growth slowed more than expected in November to 2.9% y-o-y from 11.6% in October.
·Import growth slowed to 0.0% y-o-y from 2.4%, but import growth for domestic consumption picked up.
·We expect the growth recovery to remain on track, as it is mainly driven by domestic demand.
10 December 2012
Asia Insights: China: Exports slowed but domestic demand remains strong
·China’s export growth slowed more than expected in November to 2.9% y-o-y from 11.6% in October.
·Import growth slowed to 0.0% y-o-y from 2.4%, but import growth for domestic consumption picked up.
·We expect the growth recovery to remain on track, as it is mainly driven by domestic demand.
Sunday, December 9, 2012
First Insights: China: Trade slows but the growth recovery remains on track
First Insights: China: Trade slows but the growth recovery remains on track
Export growth slowed to 2.9% y-o-y in November from 11.6% in October (Consensus 9%, Nomura 7%), while import growth slowed to 0% from 2.4% (Consensus 2.0%, Nomura 0%).
Export growth slowed to 2.9% y-o-y in November from 11.6% in October (Consensus 9%, Nomura 7%), while import growth slowed to 0% from 2.4% (Consensus 2.0%, Nomura 0%).
Turkey: Still in a sweet spot
Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
Emerging Markets
https://research.commerzbank.com
Turkey: Still in a sweet spot
Following our October visit, we wrote that the Turkish economy had entered a sweet spot – that slower growth and low commodity prices were having a materially positive impact on Turkey’s current account and inflation imbalances. Last month, current account and inflation data improved further. Meanwhile, Fitch upgraded Turkey to investment grade – the only such upgrade in the region since Lehman. Moody’s holds a positive outlook. Understandably, foreign capital is piling in.
Analyst:
Tatha Ghose
Emerging Markets
https://research.commerzbank.com
Turkey: Still in a sweet spot
Following our October visit, we wrote that the Turkish economy had entered a sweet spot – that slower growth and low commodity prices were having a materially positive impact on Turkey’s current account and inflation imbalances. Last month, current account and inflation data improved further. Meanwhile, Fitch upgraded Turkey to investment grade – the only such upgrade in the region since Lehman. Moody’s holds a positive outlook. Understandably, foreign capital is piling in.
Analyst:
Tatha Ghose
Eco Analysis - The Chinese economy is undoubtedly heating up (W. Yao)
Eco Analysis - The Chinese economy is undoubtedly heating up (W. Yao)
■ Inflation advanced but less than expected
China's consumer price inflation came in slightly below expectations at 2.0%yoy in November (Cons. & SG 2.1%), up from 1.7%yoy in October. The 0.4ppt increase was a result of a 1.2pp increase in food inflation to 3.0%yoy. Within the non-food components, housing inflation moved up marginally to 2.6%yoy from 2.5%yoy, while other categories unexpectedly softened to 1.2%yoy from 1.4%yoy, according to our calculation.
■ Inflation advanced but less than expected
China's consumer price inflation came in slightly below expectations at 2.0%yoy in November (Cons. & SG 2.1%), up from 1.7%yoy in October. The 0.4ppt increase was a result of a 1.2pp increase in food inflation to 3.0%yoy. Within the non-food components, housing inflation moved up marginally to 2.6%yoy from 2.5%yoy, while other categories unexpectedly softened to 1.2%yoy from 1.4%yoy, according to our calculation.
Saturday, December 8, 2012
Eco Analysis - US Employment Report: Surprisingly Good (B. Jones)
Eco Analysis - US Employment Report: Surprisingly Good (B. Jones)
■ Nonfarm job growth eclipsed all projections for a second straight month in November
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that nonfarm payrolls expanded by 146K in November, following a revised 138K rise in October (was 171K) and 132K increase in September (was 148K). Last month's print exceeded both our (122K) and the median Street (85K) expectations. Indeed, for the second month in a row, the front-month job gain eclipsed all published economist projections.
■ Nonfarm job growth eclipsed all projections for a second straight month in November
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that nonfarm payrolls expanded by 146K in November, following a revised 138K rise in October (was 171K) and 132K increase in September (was 148K). Last month's print exceeded both our (122K) and the median Street (85K) expectations. Indeed, for the second month in a row, the front-month job gain eclipsed all published economist projections.
Friday, December 7, 2012
Eco Analysis - Energy prices to put upward pressure on French inflation in December and January (M. Martinez)
Eco Analysis - Energy prices to put upward pressure on French inflation in December and January (M. Martinez)
Energy prices to put upward pressure on French inflation in December and January
French inflation gauges have been slowing down since the beginning of the year. After another drop in annual rates in November, we expect this trend to break in January, owing mainly to an increase in energy and food prices. Indeed, energy prices have been constrained by the government over past months, but are likely to catch up in December and January. We expect FRCPIxt to rise by 1.75% yoy in the first two months of 2013.
■ Excise duties on gasoline prices to rise progressively
Following up on a promise made by François Hollande during his presidential campaign, excise duties on fuels (TICPE) were temporary reduced by €3ct per litre between 29 August and 30 November. At the same time, gasoline retailers matched the price cut, leading to an average reduction of €6ct per litre. Last week, the government announced that the return to normal TICPE excise duties will occur in four stages, beginning with a €1ct hike on 1 December, followed by €½ct on 11 December, €½ct on 21 December and lastly €1ct on 11 January. We expect gasoline prices to gradually increase by €6ct during this period. The cumulated impact on headline inflation in December and January is estimated at 20-25bp.
■ Gas prices to rise by 3.0% on 1 January.
Gas tariffs are administered by the government in France. Household tariffs increased by 2% in October, as the government apparently ignored the recommendation of the French energy regulator (Commission de regulation de l'énergie, CRE) which estimated that prices should be increased by 6.1%. As a result, ANODE, the French gas suppliers association, took the French government to court, and subsequently, on 29 November, the Conseil d'Etat (Counsel of State) which hears cases against decisions made by the government, ruled in favour of ANODE. On 10 December, the government is to announce the official hike, which is to take effect on 1 January. We expect the hike to be close to 3.0% which translates into a 3bp hike in headline inflation.
■ Food prices to grow in line with average seasonality
We expect food prices to increase by 1.0% over the next three months (November to January), thereby adding 15bp to the headline figures, representing the average observed over the last 10 winters (from November to January). In actual fact, food prices grew at a slower pace (0.6%) between November 2011 and January 2012. However, we believe the summer surge in global agricultural prices is likely to have exerted upward pressure.
■ French inflation to slow down in 2013 and accelerate in 2014
On a different note, household and motor insurance tariffs are set to increase by 2.0-3.0bp in January (adding 3bp to headline figures). Assuming an average seasonal profile for other core prices, we expect French inflation (FRCPIxt) to print at 1.75% yoy in January. Looking ahead, we expect French HICP inflation to grow at 1.9% yoy in 2013 and 2.4% yoy in 2014. As part of our central scenario, we take into account the VAT hike in January 2014 (see PM Ayrault sends positive signals on competitiveness). Note that our monthly inflation forecasts are available on Bloomberg (function SXEI).
MARTINEZ Michel
Energy prices to put upward pressure on French inflation in December and January
French inflation gauges have been slowing down since the beginning of the year. After another drop in annual rates in November, we expect this trend to break in January, owing mainly to an increase in energy and food prices. Indeed, energy prices have been constrained by the government over past months, but are likely to catch up in December and January. We expect FRCPIxt to rise by 1.75% yoy in the first two months of 2013.
■ Excise duties on gasoline prices to rise progressively
Following up on a promise made by François Hollande during his presidential campaign, excise duties on fuels (TICPE) were temporary reduced by €3ct per litre between 29 August and 30 November. At the same time, gasoline retailers matched the price cut, leading to an average reduction of €6ct per litre. Last week, the government announced that the return to normal TICPE excise duties will occur in four stages, beginning with a €1ct hike on 1 December, followed by €½ct on 11 December, €½ct on 21 December and lastly €1ct on 11 January. We expect gasoline prices to gradually increase by €6ct during this period. The cumulated impact on headline inflation in December and January is estimated at 20-25bp.
■ Gas prices to rise by 3.0% on 1 January.
Gas tariffs are administered by the government in France. Household tariffs increased by 2% in October, as the government apparently ignored the recommendation of the French energy regulator (Commission de regulation de l'énergie, CRE) which estimated that prices should be increased by 6.1%. As a result, ANODE, the French gas suppliers association, took the French government to court, and subsequently, on 29 November, the Conseil d'Etat (Counsel of State) which hears cases against decisions made by the government, ruled in favour of ANODE. On 10 December, the government is to announce the official hike, which is to take effect on 1 January. We expect the hike to be close to 3.0% which translates into a 3bp hike in headline inflation.
■ Food prices to grow in line with average seasonality
We expect food prices to increase by 1.0% over the next three months (November to January), thereby adding 15bp to the headline figures, representing the average observed over the last 10 winters (from November to January). In actual fact, food prices grew at a slower pace (0.6%) between November 2011 and January 2012. However, we believe the summer surge in global agricultural prices is likely to have exerted upward pressure.
■ French inflation to slow down in 2013 and accelerate in 2014
On a different note, household and motor insurance tariffs are set to increase by 2.0-3.0bp in January (adding 3bp to headline figures). Assuming an average seasonal profile for other core prices, we expect French inflation (FRCPIxt) to print at 1.75% yoy in January. Looking ahead, we expect French HICP inflation to grow at 1.9% yoy in 2013 and 2.4% yoy in 2014. As part of our central scenario, we take into account the VAT hike in January 2014 (see PM Ayrault sends positive signals on competitiveness). Note that our monthly inflation forecasts are available on Bloomberg (function SXEI).
MARTINEZ Michel
Ukraine: S&P downgraded Ukraine's rating by one notch to B (negative outlook)
Ukraine: S&P downgraded Ukraine's rating by one notch to B (negative outlook)
Today S&P downgraded Ukraine's rating by one notch to B (negative outlook). Previously this week, the country's rating was downgraded by Moody's. The main concern is clear: the country is scheduled to redeem USD7.2bn in 2013 while sources of refinancing are still uncertain. We reiterate our call that the new deal with the IMF is essential for financial and economic stability in the short term. We expect more efforts of the government to reach a compromise with the fund. However, the mission visit has been recently postponed to the beginning of 2013 when the new government is supposed to be formed. We maintain our call on economic recession in the coming quarters and hryvnya deval to UAH9 per $ in the near future.
Today S&P downgraded Ukraine's rating by one notch to B (negative outlook). Previously this week, the country's rating was downgraded by Moody's. The main concern is clear: the country is scheduled to redeem USD7.2bn in 2013 while sources of refinancing are still uncertain. We reiterate our call that the new deal with the IMF is essential for financial and economic stability in the short term. We expect more efforts of the government to reach a compromise with the fund. However, the mission visit has been recently postponed to the beginning of 2013 when the new government is supposed to be formed. We maintain our call on economic recession in the coming quarters and hryvnya deval to UAH9 per $ in the near future.
U.S. Commercial, Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Rates Dip in 3Q
World Property Channel
U.S. Commercial, Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Rates Dip in 3Q
Posted by David Barley 12/07/12 8:00 AM EST
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report, delinquency rates decreased for commercial and multifamily mortgage loans in the third quarter.
U.S. Commercial, Multifamily Mortgage Delinquency Rates Dip in 3Q
Posted by David Barley 12/07/12 8:00 AM EST
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Delinquency Report, delinquency rates decreased for commercial and multifamily mortgage loans in the third quarter.
Chile: We expect consumer prices to have inched down modestly in November
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 07 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: We expect consumer prices to have inched down modestly in November.
CHILE
We expect modest deflation in November. The report will be unveiled today. After an upside surprise in October, consumer price inflation is expected to have dived into negative terrain in November. The m/m decline is estimated to be modest, though. We look for a negative print smaller than 0.1% in absolute terms. If the forecast materializes, the y/y inflation rate would have declined to 2.5% last month. The median estimate from the Bloomberg survey expects consumer prices to have remained unchanged last month. The consensus y/y rate expectation is 2.6%.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 07 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: We expect consumer prices to have inched down modestly in November.
CHILE
We expect modest deflation in November. The report will be unveiled today. After an upside surprise in October, consumer price inflation is expected to have dived into negative terrain in November. The m/m decline is estimated to be modest, though. We look for a negative print smaller than 0.1% in absolute terms. If the forecast materializes, the y/y inflation rate would have declined to 2.5% last month. The median estimate from the Bloomberg survey expects consumer prices to have remained unchanged last month. The consensus y/y rate expectation is 2.6%.
Thursday, December 6, 2012
Eco Analysis - Australia: Big trade deficit, but also better exports (K Baader)
Eco Analysis - Australia: Big trade deficit, but also better exports (K Baader)
Australia's October trade figures added another piece of evidence that intra-Asian trade - and arguably global trade - is picking up. Export values rose for the first time in five months, albeit by a mere 0.4% mom, but that is a respectable performance considering that, according to the RBA measure, commodity prices were down 2.2% in October. The rise owed much to a jump in exports to China, which surged 20% mom (but caution, not seasonally adjusted), lifting the annual rate to -11% from -25%. This supports the notion that de-stocking in China has come to an end. Meanwhile, imports into Australia surged, led by capital goods, indicating that strong investment activity extended into Q4.
Australia's October trade figures added another piece of evidence that intra-Asian trade - and arguably global trade - is picking up. Export values rose for the first time in five months, albeit by a mere 0.4% mom, but that is a respectable performance considering that, according to the RBA measure, commodity prices were down 2.2% in October. The rise owed much to a jump in exports to China, which surged 20% mom (but caution, not seasonally adjusted), lifting the annual rate to -11% from -25%. This supports the notion that de-stocking in China has come to an end. Meanwhile, imports into Australia surged, led by capital goods, indicating that strong investment activity extended into Q4.
Top 10 Investor Questions For 2013: Global Real Estate
Top 10 Investor Questions For 2013: Global Real Estate
05-Dec-2012
How does the prospect of a slow U.S. economic recovery affect Standard & Poor's Ratings Services' views on the credit quality of REITs and homebuilders in this market?How does Standard & Poor's account for divergent economic trends in its financial performance forecasts for real estate companies in the Asia-Pacific region? What implications does the prevailing weak macroeconomic environment in Europe have for real estate ratings? What are Standard & Poor's views on the funding outlook for the U.S. real estate sector? What are the most notable debt capital market developments for real estate in the Asia-Pacific region? What are funding conditions like for real estate in Europe? What is your credit outlook for the main property sectors in the U.S.? What is your credit outlook for the main property sectors in Asia-Pacific? What is your credit outlook for Europe's retail and office property sectors?What are the likely prospects for M&A activity in the real estate sector across the three major regions? The global real estate sector is set to finish the year 2012 on a cautiously positive note. Capital real estate values have broadly remained stable, rated real estate investment trusts (REITs) are on track in terms of leasing activity, and most rated developers are seeing improved profitability. The funding environment for rated real estate has improved significantly since 2010-2011, and investor appetite for real estate debt is growing. We're also seeing real estate companies shift toward debt issuance and nonbank funding rather than bank debt--a trend that we believe will continue into 2013. We believe credit quality among our rated portfolio of real estate companies should remain stable into 2013. This is because our base-case operating scenarios for rated estate companies balance macroeconomic headwinds with firms' well-diversified, high quality portfolios.
S&P: Top 10 Investor Questions For 2013: Global Real Estate
05-Dec-2012
How does the prospect of a slow U.S. economic recovery affect Standard & Poor's Ratings Services' views on the credit quality of REITs and homebuilders in this market?How does Standard & Poor's account for divergent economic trends in its financial performance forecasts for real estate companies in the Asia-Pacific region? What implications does the prevailing weak macroeconomic environment in Europe have for real estate ratings? What are Standard & Poor's views on the funding outlook for the U.S. real estate sector? What are the most notable debt capital market developments for real estate in the Asia-Pacific region? What are funding conditions like for real estate in Europe? What is your credit outlook for the main property sectors in the U.S.? What is your credit outlook for the main property sectors in Asia-Pacific? What is your credit outlook for Europe's retail and office property sectors?What are the likely prospects for M&A activity in the real estate sector across the three major regions? The global real estate sector is set to finish the year 2012 on a cautiously positive note. Capital real estate values have broadly remained stable, rated real estate investment trusts (REITs) are on track in terms of leasing activity, and most rated developers are seeing improved profitability. The funding environment for rated real estate has improved significantly since 2010-2011, and investor appetite for real estate debt is growing. We're also seeing real estate companies shift toward debt issuance and nonbank funding rather than bank debt--a trend that we believe will continue into 2013. We believe credit quality among our rated portfolio of real estate companies should remain stable into 2013. This is because our base-case operating scenarios for rated estate companies balance macroeconomic headwinds with firms' well-diversified, high quality portfolios.
S&P: Top 10 Investor Questions For 2013: Global Real Estate
New $15 Billion Hudson Yards Project Breaks Ground on Manhattan's West Side
World Property Channel
New $15 Billion Hudson Yards Project Breaks Ground on Manhattan's West Side
Posted by Hortense Leon 12/06/12 8:15 AM EST
A city within a city was launched on Tuesday of this week, when ground was broken for the first building in the approximately $15 billion mixed-use Hudson Yards development on the west side of Manhattan.
New $15 Billion Hudson Yards Project Breaks Ground on Manhattan's West Side
Posted by Hortense Leon 12/06/12 8:15 AM EST
A city within a city was launched on Tuesday of this week, when ground was broken for the first building in the approximately $15 billion mixed-use Hudson Yards development on the west side of Manhattan.
Chile: Growth cooled down further on a sequential basis in early Q4
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 06 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: Growth cooled down further on a sequential basis in early Q4.
CHILE
Growth cooled down further on a sequential basis in early Q4. The monthly proxy for real GDP, Imacec, was reported to have advanced a robust 6.7% y/y in October. This reading stood slightly ahead of our forecast and the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey (both: 6.2% y/y). On a three-month moving average basis, growth accelerated slightly to an above-potential 6.0% y/y.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 06 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Chile: Growth cooled down further on a sequential basis in early Q4.
CHILE
Growth cooled down further on a sequential basis in early Q4. The monthly proxy for real GDP, Imacec, was reported to have advanced a robust 6.7% y/y in October. This reading stood slightly ahead of our forecast and the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey (both: 6.2% y/y). On a three-month moving average basis, growth accelerated slightly to an above-potential 6.0% y/y.
Wednesday, December 5, 2012
U.S. Multi-Family Sector's Vacancy Rates Expected to Rise in 2013
World Property Channel
U.S. Multi-Family Sector's Vacancy Rates Expected to Rise in 2013
Posted by Hortense Leon 12/05/12 8:18 PM EST
Although the U.S. multi-housing vacancy rate is expected to go up in 2013, it will remain near the historic average.
U.S. Multi-Family Sector's Vacancy Rates Expected to Rise in 2013
Posted by Hortense Leon 12/05/12 8:18 PM EST
Although the U.S. multi-housing vacancy rate is expected to go up in 2013, it will remain near the historic average.
Tesco US Exit Would End Losses, Allow UK Turnaround Focus
Fitchratings.com
05 Dec 2012 11:35 AM
Tesco US Exit Would End Losses, Allow UK Turnaround Focus
Fitch Ratings-London-05 December 2012: A withdrawal from the US would benefit Tesco's financial profile by halting several more years of operating losses and would allow the retailer to focus on addressing more pressing issues in its home market, Fitch Ratings says. Early expectations for growth from the US business quickly proved over-optimistic, especially as it was launched just before the economic downturn. Still a withdrawal would leave the group's European and Asian operations as the only source of international diversification.
05 Dec 2012 11:35 AM
Tesco US Exit Would End Losses, Allow UK Turnaround Focus
Fitch Ratings-London-05 December 2012: A withdrawal from the US would benefit Tesco's financial profile by halting several more years of operating losses and would allow the retailer to focus on addressing more pressing issues in its home market, Fitch Ratings says. Early expectations for growth from the US business quickly proved over-optimistic, especially as it was launched just before the economic downturn. Still a withdrawal would leave the group's European and Asian operations as the only source of international diversification.
A Boom in Houston Is Led by the Energy Industry
A Boom in Houston Is Led by the Energy Industry
Office buildings under construction in the Woodlands Town Center. The taller one is for Anadarko Petroleum.
By MATT HUDGINS
Published: December 4, 2012
HOUSTON — Even first-time visitors here can tell that the city is growing rapidly. Construction cranes overhang office and apartment sites all along the Katy Freeway, a stretch of Interstate 10 that connects a string of booming submarkets west of the 610 Loop. This expanse includes the Westchase neighborhood and the Energy Corridor, home to an expanding cluster of energy companies.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/05/realestate/commercial/houstons-boom-is-led-by-the-energy-industry.html
Office buildings under construction in the Woodlands Town Center. The taller one is for Anadarko Petroleum.
By MATT HUDGINS
Published: December 4, 2012
HOUSTON — Even first-time visitors here can tell that the city is growing rapidly. Construction cranes overhang office and apartment sites all along the Katy Freeway, a stretch of Interstate 10 that connects a string of booming submarkets west of the 610 Loop. This expanse includes the Westchase neighborhood and the Energy Corridor, home to an expanding cluster of energy companies.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/05/realestate/commercial/houstons-boom-is-led-by-the-energy-industry.html
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
US LNG EXPORT PROJECTS—1: Three-point system compares US LNG export projects
http://www.ogj.com/articles/print/vol-110/issue-12/transportation/us-lng-export-projects-1-three-point.html
US LNG EXPORT PROJECTS—1: Three-point system compares US LNG export projects
12/03/2012
John E. Paisie
JEA Consulting Group
Toledo, Ohio
Evaluating potential US LNG export terminals on the basis of their development plan, financial health, and development timeline allows a sorting of the various projects by their likelihood of completion.
US LNG EXPORT PROJECTS—1: Three-point system compares US LNG export projects
12/03/2012
John E. Paisie
JEA Consulting Group
Toledo, Ohio
Evaluating potential US LNG export terminals on the basis of their development plan, financial health, and development timeline allows a sorting of the various projects by their likelihood of completion.
Colombia Weekly
Colombia Weekly
Rodrigo Fuenmayor, William Pereira, Economics/FX/Interest Rate Teams - FX / Rates
Colombia Weekly | 04 Dec 2012 12:21 |
Summary
Strengthening labour market. The unemployment rate (urban areas) declined to 10.2% in October from 10.7% in the month before. This was better than the consensus expectation of 10.5%. The national unemployment rate was 8.9%. The strengthening of the labour market and continued availability of credit, albeit at a reduced pace, bode well for domestic consumption and demand.
Rodrigo Fuenmayor, William Pereira, Economics/FX/Interest Rate Teams - FX / Rates
Colombia Weekly | 04 Dec 2012 12:21 |
Summary
Strengthening labour market. The unemployment rate (urban areas) declined to 10.2% in October from 10.7% in the month before. This was better than the consensus expectation of 10.5%. The national unemployment rate was 8.9%. The strengthening of the labour market and continued availability of credit, albeit at a reduced pace, bode well for domestic consumption and demand.
Colombia: Record-low popularity for President Santos
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 04 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Colombia: Record-low popularity for President Santos
COLOMBIA
Colombian President Santos’ support falls sharply. President Santos’s approval rating fell 15pp in one month to a record low of 45% in November. This was likely driven by a court ruling in favour of Nicaragua and against Colombia in a dispute over territorial waters in the Caribbean Sea. Last month, the International Court of Justice in the Hague ordered Colombia to give sovereignty of some territorial waters to Nicaragua. This order reduces Colombia's maritime borders in the Caribbean Sea and has prompted Colombia to withdraw from the International Court of Justice.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 04 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Colombia: Record-low popularity for President Santos
COLOMBIA
Colombian President Santos’ support falls sharply. President Santos’s approval rating fell 15pp in one month to a record low of 45% in November. This was likely driven by a court ruling in favour of Nicaragua and against Colombia in a dispute over territorial waters in the Caribbean Sea. Last month, the International Court of Justice in the Hague ordered Colombia to give sovereignty of some territorial waters to Nicaragua. This order reduces Colombia's maritime borders in the Caribbean Sea and has prompted Colombia to withdraw from the International Court of Justice.
Mexico: IMEF survey results reflect continued upbeat business sentiment
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 04 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Mexico: IMEF survey results reflect continued upbeat business sentiment
MEXICO
PMIs continue well inside the expansion zone. At 53.8 each, the IMEF manufacturing and non-manufacturing indicators both remained in the expansion territory in November. Four of the five IMEF manufacturing components (new orders, production, employment and inventory) were decidedly in the expansion territory. The inventory segment was the only sub-50 component (47.1). The new orders and production components of the non-manufacturing IMEF showed continued strength, with readings of 57.6 and 56.7, respectively.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 04 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Mexico: IMEF survey results reflect continued upbeat business sentiment
MEXICO
PMIs continue well inside the expansion zone. At 53.8 each, the IMEF manufacturing and non-manufacturing indicators both remained in the expansion territory in November. Four of the five IMEF manufacturing components (new orders, production, employment and inventory) were decidedly in the expansion territory. The inventory segment was the only sub-50 component (47.1). The new orders and production components of the non-manufacturing IMEF showed continued strength, with readings of 57.6 and 56.7, respectively.
Brazil: Industrial production will rebound in October
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 04 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Brazil: Industrial production will rebound in October
BRAZIL
Today, industrial production (IP) will rebound, according to coincident data, including energy consumption, car output, heavy vehicle traffic on toll roads and paperboard sales. A month earlier, an unusually few number of working days led to a soft IP number in seasonally adjusted terms.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 04 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Brazil: Industrial production will rebound in October
BRAZIL
Today, industrial production (IP) will rebound, according to coincident data, including energy consumption, car output, heavy vehicle traffic on toll roads and paperboard sales. A month earlier, an unusually few number of working days led to a soft IP number in seasonally adjusted terms.
Monday, December 3, 2012
Turkey: Food-Driven Disinflation
Turkey: Food-Driven Disinflation
At 0.38% m/m, November's CPI inflation was significantly lower than market consensus and our expectation (0.9%), mostly due to a 0.12% m/m decline in food prices. Contrary to the global food price increases during the first half of the year, domestic food prices followed a subdued trend this year, resulting in a food inflation of 2.3% from January to November. The average January-November food inflation during 2007-2011 was 10%. Accordingly, annual CPI inflation declined to 6.4% in November from 7.8% in October.
At 0.38% m/m, November's CPI inflation was significantly lower than market consensus and our expectation (0.9%), mostly due to a 0.12% m/m decline in food prices. Contrary to the global food price increases during the first half of the year, domestic food prices followed a subdued trend this year, resulting in a food inflation of 2.3% from January to November. The average January-November food inflation during 2007-2011 was 10%. Accordingly, annual CPI inflation declined to 6.4% in November from 7.8% in October.
Ukraine: the government resignation - and substantial reshuffle ahead
Ukraine: the government resignation - and substantial reshuffle ahead
In Ukraine, the president accepted the resignation of PM Azarov, which means resignation of his cabinet. This event was very expected and following to the parliamentary elections. However, now we expect quite substantial reshuffle of the cabinet and new figures to be recruited to the government. First of all, it was widely announced that the ministers who were elected to the Rada are planning to work there. This implicitly means that politically charismatic ministers such as Vice PM Sergei Tigipko, the minister of justice Alexander Lavrinovich, minister of economy Petr Poroshenko, minister of emergency Victor Baloga, minister of transportation Boris Kolesnikov, minister of regions Anatoly Blyznyuk and minister of sport Dmitry Tabachnik are likely to become a new parlament deputies.
In Ukraine, the president accepted the resignation of PM Azarov, which means resignation of his cabinet. This event was very expected and following to the parliamentary elections. However, now we expect quite substantial reshuffle of the cabinet and new figures to be recruited to the government. First of all, it was widely announced that the ministers who were elected to the Rada are planning to work there. This implicitly means that politically charismatic ministers such as Vice PM Sergei Tigipko, the minister of justice Alexander Lavrinovich, minister of economy Petr Poroshenko, minister of emergency Victor Baloga, minister of transportation Boris Kolesnikov, minister of regions Anatoly Blyznyuk and minister of sport Dmitry Tabachnik are likely to become a new parlament deputies.
Peru: The central bank to remain on hold again this week
Peru: The central bank to remain on hold again this week
PERU
The long pause to continue this week. The central bank (BCRP) has kept the policy rate unchanged for 18 consecutive months. We expect this to continue this week and into next year.
PERU
The long pause to continue this week. The central bank (BCRP) has kept the policy rate unchanged for 18 consecutive months. We expect this to continue this week and into next year.
Chile: Busy week ahead. Strong activity and modest deflation expected
Chile: Busy week ahead. Strong activity and modest deflation expected.
CHILE
A busy week ahead; strong activity (October) and modest deflation (November) expected. The calendar starts on Wednesday with the release of the October economic activity report. The forecast shows expectations for a strong reading based on available evidence on different economic sectors. Thus, we expect the monthly real GDP proxy to have advanced 6.2% y/y in October. We also look for a modest expansion in sequential terms. The median estimate from the Bloomberg survey, meanwhile, looks for a flat monthly reading and a slightly lower 6.0% y/y gain.
CHILE
A busy week ahead; strong activity (October) and modest deflation (November) expected. The calendar starts on Wednesday with the release of the October economic activity report. The forecast shows expectations for a strong reading based on available evidence on different economic sectors. Thus, we expect the monthly real GDP proxy to have advanced 6.2% y/y in October. We also look for a modest expansion in sequential terms. The median estimate from the Bloomberg survey, meanwhile, looks for a flat monthly reading and a slightly lower 6.0% y/y gain.
Asia Insights: China: The PMI continued to improve in November
Fixed Income | Asia Ex-Japan
NOMURA
02 December 2012
Asia Insights: China: The PMI continued to improve in November
·China’s official PMI rose further to 50.6 in November from 50.2 in October, lower than the consensus forecast of 50.8.
·Both the new orders and the production sub-indices continued to improve.
·This lends further support to our view of a strong economic rebound in Q4.
NOMURA
02 December 2012
Asia Insights: China: The PMI continued to improve in November
·China’s official PMI rose further to 50.6 in November from 50.2 in October, lower than the consensus forecast of 50.8.
·Both the new orders and the production sub-indices continued to improve.
·This lends further support to our view of a strong economic rebound in Q4.
Sunday, December 2, 2012
Fiscal Cliff Takeaways From the Sunday News Shows
Mohamed A. El-Erian.CEO and co-CIO, PIMCO
Fiscal Cliff Takeaways From the Sunday News Shows
Posted: 12/02/2012 2:56 pm
Television networks devoted much of their Sunday news shows to the fiscal cliff -- and rightly so -- reflecting the urgency and importance of the topic.
Fiscal Cliff Takeaways From the Sunday News Shows
Posted: 12/02/2012 2:56 pm
Television networks devoted much of their Sunday news shows to the fiscal cliff -- and rightly so -- reflecting the urgency and importance of the topic.
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