US Outlook 2013
Bulent Baygun,Interest Rate Team - Rates
Desknotes US | 14 Dec 2012 15:29 |
Summary
We are facing a period of increased demand for high-quality paper, which should
keep funds flowing into Treasuries, agencies, mortgages and SSAs.
While inflation is not a threat, the improving US growth outlook should be supportive of a better tone in risk markets. This should push nominal rates higher and the curve steeper, countered only by unrelenting Fed buying.
View: Rates should rise gradually throughout 2013, with the curve steepening in the process. Yield pick-up will be the dominant theme in investors’ minds, favouring agencies, SSAs and mortgages. The 5y-7y sector will be the sweet spot on the curve.
Trades: 5s30s steepeners; Long 10y TIPS BEs below 240bp; Short 10y US vs Germany; Short 20y vs 10y and 30y in USTs; Long call-protected mortgages, especially 3s; Buy 7y bullet agencies vs Treasuries; Buy 3y USD KfW and EIB vs US agencies and swaps; Long 30y swap spreads.
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