_Economy and Finance

Chile: IPoM – Life is Good, Why Change? Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Latam Macro Snapshot | 02 Apr 2013 17:11 | The Monetary Policy Report (IPoM) released today makes it clear that the central bank (BCCh) will remain on hold for the foreseeable future as it expects trend growth and on-target inflation. The base scenario is as good as it gets but the BCCh remains mindful of risks. Nothing lasts forever. The IPoM’s key conclusions are supportive of our view that BCCh will remain on hold this year.

Chile: All Reasons Lead to a Longer Pause Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Latam Macro Snapshot | 01 Apr 2013 21:13 | According to the minutes of the 14 March monetary policy meeting, there are good reasons to cut and there are good reasons to hike. But, on balance, all reasons lead to a longer pause.

Chile – This week’s data would reflect soft activity in February. Focus will be on BCCh publications. CHILE Manufacturing output and retail sales growth decelerated in February, and the unemployment rate edged up two ticks to 6.2%. February data are providing partial evidence that the slowdown in activity from unsustainable levels that the central bank has been anticipating (and hoping for) may finally be happening. As such, they reduce the likelihood that monetary tightening will be required in the months ahead to cool the economy.

Chile: Signs of Growth Slowdown Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Latam Macro Snapshot | 28 Mar 2013 13:33 | Manufacturing output and retail sales growth decelerated in February and the unemployment rate edged up two ticks to 6.2%. February data are providing partial evidence that the slowdown in activity from unsustainable levels that the central bank has been anticipating (and hoping for) may be finally happening. As such, they reduce the likelihood that monetary tightening will be required in the months ahead to cool the economy.

Chile – FinMin Larrain proposes new cut on stamp duty. Finance Minister Felipe Larrain announced yesterday that the government is currently weighting a new cut on the stamp duty (tax on loans). The FinMin said that the plan looks to cut the rate to 0.2% from 0.4%, the third reduction during Pinera’s administration (it was 1.2% when he entered office). This is done in an effort to reduce tax evasion. He expects the tax proposal to be approved in the next couple of months. Separately, Larrain mentioned that the government is always concerned about the appreciation of the peso, and it is responding to the currency’s strength the best it can.

Central of Bank Turkey: Surprise cut on the ceiling rate The CBRT kept its policy rate and the lower-end of the interest rate corridor unchanged at 5.50% and 4.50% respectively, but unexpectedly cut the ceiling rate by 100bps. Accordingly, o/n lending rate to primary dealers was reduced to 7.00% (the rest of the market to 7.50%). In addition, reserve option coefficients were raised by 0.1 points for the upper tranches, which would increase gross reserves by USD 0.9bn.

Chile: All Signs Point to Buoyant Domestic Demand Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Latam Macro Snapshot | 18 Mar 2013 17:17 | Data releases today confirm that domestic demand strength underpinned a rapid rise in real output and widened the current account deficit in Q4. Recent data indicate that early in Q1 domestic demand continued to grow at a pace that likely exceeded the economy’s potential, increasing the risk of overheating.

Turkey: December unemployment rate Temporary rise in the unemployment rate In December, seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased 0.1pp to 9.6%, and non-farm unemployment rate increased 0.2pp to 11.8%, on our calculations. The employment and participation rates remained strong at 46.0% and 50.9% respectively, only a tad below the record high levels of 46.1% and 51.0% in November.

Turkey: Strong increase in fiscal revenues and spending in February Central government primary balance was TRY 3.5bn in February, significantly lower compared to the surplus of TRY 6.0bn in February 2012. The deterioration in the fiscal balance came despite stronger budget revenues, which increased 18% y/y. On the other hand, non-interest expenditures rose much faster by 34% y/y. The additional spending in February stems from payments to contractors and transfers to social security institution.

Turkey: The end of rebalancing At USD 5.6bn, January's current account deficit was slightly higher than the market consensus and our forecast (both at USD 5.3bn). Consequently, 12-month cumulative c/a deficit declined USD 0.1bn to USD 46.8bn. Non-energy current account balance remained unchanged at USD 5.5bn on a 12-month cumulative basis. The revision of Turkstat's tourism revenue estimations was reflected to BoP statistics, and as a result, 2012 c/a deficit was revised down to USD 46.9bn from USD 48.9bn, or 5.9% of GDP. Net errors and omissions were revised from USD 4bn to USD 2bn for 2012.

South Africa: Fourth quarter current account deficit narrows to 6.5% of GDP from 6.8% in Q3 South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed slightly in the fourth quarter of 2012, falling to R212.6bn from R215bn in Q3. Coupled with the q/q increase of R91.9bn in fourth quarter GDP, the result was that the current account deficit as a percentage of GDP narrowed from 6.8% in Q3 (revised up from 6.4%) to 6.5%. In addition to the trade deficit narrowing from R87.3bn in the third quarter to R86bn, net service, income and current transfer payments also declined in the final quarter, declining from R127.7bn in Q3 to R126.6bn. The net result of these declines was a R2.4bn reduction in the current account deficit in the fourth quarter. Expressed as a percentage of GDP, the current account deficit averaged 6.3% in 2012, a considerable deterioration from 3.4% in 2011.

Turkey: Signs of Life in IP January's industrial production was 2.1% y/y, slightly below the market and our expectations of 2.5%. On a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis, IP increased by 2.3% m/m, following a decline of 3.5% m/m in December. January industrial production index shows that CBRT's monetary easing has started to reflect on manufacturing activity. Strong January IP figure combined with robust credit growth, confidence indices and PMI, points that the pickup in the economic activity will continue in Q1.

Chile: All quite on the inflation front Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Latam Macro Snapshot | 08 Mar 2013 13:37 | Consumer prices rose only 0.1% m/m in February, less than the consensus 0.3% m/m call and our own 0.2% m/m projection. Annual inflation dropped to 1.3% y/y, sinking further below the 2% floor of BCCh's target band (Chart 1).

Chile Central Bank Governor Vergara flagged increased risks, due to faster-than-expected growth. Central Bank Governor Rodrigo Vergara said that domestic demand, driven by both strong consumer spending and large investments in the mining industry, has been the driver of Chile’s rapid growth. He noted that mining investments accounted for less than 15% of total investment in 2003, and now accounts for 25% of total investments. Mining output’s share of GDP is 15%, while copper accounts for 60.0% of exports.

Daily Latam Spotlight - 6 March 2013 Chile: Growth was rapid in January The monthly proxy for real GDP, Imacec, expanded 6.7% y/y in January. This is in line with our 6.8% y/y forecast and slightly above the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey of 6.5% y/y. Growth was rapid across the board. Mining activity expanded 8.4% y/y, manufacturing advanced 4.4% y/y and services rose 6.9% y/y. The three-month moving average of GDP growth was 5.6% y/y in January, the same as in the month before. In monthly terms, real output rose 0.1% m/m in January, and was 17.0%, saar above Q4.

Turkey: Inflation - as expected At 0.3% m/m, February's CPI inflation was slightly below the market consensus and our forecast (both at 0.4% m/m). Consequently, annual inflation declined 0.3pp to 7.0%. The lower-than-expected CPI was mainly due to food and clothing prices. Annual food inflation fell from 6.85% in January to 5.60% in February, partly correcting the 3pp rise previous month. The decline in clothing prices was higher than the seasonal averages at 6.4% m/m in February.

Chile: Steady Rate as the Only Option, Despite Concerns Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Latam Macro Snapshot | 01 Mar 2013 19:19 | Neutral rate and stance. We read the minutes of the 14 February monetary policy meeting as broadly neutral regarding the short-term outlook, ruling out any changes in the policy rate for now. According to the minutes, the policy rate remains within a neutral range and the decision to keep it steady at 5.0% was unanimous.

Chile: Happy 2013 Beginning for Activity Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Latam Macro Snapshot | 28 Feb 2013 15:06 | According to data releases today, the economy began the year on a strong note. In January, manufacturing output surprised to the upside, retail sales expanded rapidly and unemployment fell to a six-year low. The monthly proxy for real GDP (Imacec) due out next Tuesday is thus set to reflect rapid economic expansion in January. We project a 6.8% y/y rise in the Imacec in the first month of the year. Rapid growth supports our view that fiscal and monetary policies need to turn less accommodative to reduce the risk of overheating. Chile continues to exhibit strong growth

Turkey: Gold export story reaches an end At USD 7.3 bn, January’s foreign trade deficit was slightly above the market expectations (USD 7.0bn). As a result, 12-month cumulative trade deficit increased to USD 84.2bn in January from USD 84.0bn in December. Similarly, 12-month cumulative non-energy trade deficit increased to USD 31.9bn from USD 31.6bn. On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports and imports increased by 2% m/m and 9% m/m, respectively. Imports excluding gold and energy rose by 6% m/m on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to our calculations. On a 3m/3m basis, imports increased for the first time since August 2012, signalling that the monetary easing of the CBRT has finally reflected on import figures. Based on broad economic categories, imports of consumption goods increased 7.6% y/y, intermediate goods by 3.4% y/y, and capital goods by 8.2% y/y.

25 February 2013 Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Daily Latam Spotlight | 25 Feb 2013 06:00 | Chile – We look for stronger IP and retail sales data this week. The focus this week will be on January industrial production and retail sales data, both due out on Thursday. We look for another month of performance divergence between manufacturing production and retail sales. Manufacturing production likely rebounded in annual terms in January, rising 3.6% y/y. In sequential (sa) terms, we look for a +1.9% m/m rebound in January, following a 2.2% monthly contraction in December. Real retail sales are estimated to have contracted in sequential terms in January, but should still post a strong 9.8% gain over a year ago.