_Economy and Finance

Insight: What's Going On in Private Credit? English 한국어 Hello. Today we are taking a clear and straightforward look at the latest memo from legendary investor Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital, titled "What's Going On in Private Credit?". This insightful piece breaks down the rapidly growing private credit market, pointing out both its historical drivers and the hidden risks that are starting to surface. First, let's explore how private credit became so massive. Following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, traditional banks faced tough new regulations that forced them to pull back from corporate lending. However, private equity firms still needed enormous amounts of capital to buy companies. Non-bank lenders stepped in to fill this gap, fueling the explosive rise of direct lending. Over the last 15 years, this market has skyrocketed to an astonishing $2 trillion in size. Next, Howard Marks warns that direct len...

Macroeconomic Policy Report Subject Focus: Transition Finance English 한국어 H ello. Today, I would like to provide a detailed, professional explanation of a critical economic and financial term that is currently dominating discussions among global financial markets and central banks: "Transition Finance." In the past, the financial sector's focus was predominantly on "Green Finance," which directed capital almost exclusively toward industries that were already classified as eco-friendly, such as renewable energy. However, as of 2026, there is a widespread realization that traditional, carbon-intensive industries—often labeled as "brown" industries, like steel, chemicals, aviation, and shipping—require massive amounts of capital to transform their operations into sustainable frameworks. "Transition Finance" refers to all forms of financial s...

Financial Strategy Report Topic Overview: Yen Carry Trade & Unwinding English 한국어 H ello. Today, I will provide a detailed, professional explanation of a critical financial term that has recently sent shockwaves through global markets and dominated news headlines: the "Yen Carry Trade" and its "Unwinding." A "carry trade" is a financial strategy in which an investor borrows money in a currency with a low interest rate and invests it in assets (such as stocks or bonds) of a country with a higher yield. For decades, Japan has maintained near-zero or even negative interest rates. Consequently, global investors borrowed massive amounts of cheap Japanese Yen to invest in high-yielding assets worldwide, particularly US tech stocks and emerging market bonds. This is the essence of the "Yen Carry Trade." However, the landscape shifted dramatically wh...

Economic Intelligence English 한국어 No Landing Scenario A "No Landing" scenario occurs when the economy avoids a recession and continues to grow despite high interest rates. While this prevents a downturn, it keeps inflation high, meaning central banks may keep rates elevated for much longer than expected. 노 랜딩 (No Landing) 노 랜딩(무착륙) 시나리오는 고금리 정책에도 불구하고 경제가 위축되지 않고 성장을 이어가는 현상을 뜻합니다. 침체를 피한다는 점은 긍정적이나, 물가가 쉽게 잡히지 않아 고금리 환경이 예상보다 더 오래 지속될 위험을 동반합니다.

The problem with Mr. Obama is that you get more regulation and it’s a disincentive for businessmen to hire people. You probably also get higher taxes, so in terms of the economy, he is very negative in my view. - Marc Faber (1946- )

Biggest Buyers Retreat from Junk Bonds (Source: Bloomberg, February 15, 2013 ) According to Bloomberg, major institutional investors pulled back from junk bonds as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced record withdrawals, marking the first losses in eight months. The combined value of the five largest junk-debt funds fell 7% from January highs, with State Street’s $11.9 billion fund alone seeing nearly $1 billion in withdrawals over 12 days. Analysts noted that institutions such as hedge funds and banks are shifting away from broad indexes, instead targeting specific bonds. Junk bond ETFs, which attracted $8 billion in 2012 amid strong returns, are now facing outflows as strategists forecast weaker performance in 2013. Prices have declined from record highs, with concerns that valuations are stretched after years of double-digit returns. Prominent investors including Dan Fuss of Loomis Sayles and Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital warned that the market is “overbought” and calle...

EU Carbon Market Is at Risk of Total Collapse, Lawmaker Says By Ewa Krukowska - Jan 22, 2013 The European Union’s emissions trading system, the world’s largest, is at a risk of “total collapse” and a draft measure to fix it must become a top priority for governments, a member of the EU Parliament said. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-22/eu-carbon-market-is-at-risk-of-total-collapse-lawmaker-says.html

Europe is already in recession. Germany is still growing very, very slightly, but is likely to go into recession soon. The U.S. economy has decelerated and I don't see much growth in the next six to 12 months. ... I think that if you look at the injection of liquidity and the intervention by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury with fiscal measures, it has already impoverished the U.S. economy. - Marc Faber (1946- ), CNBC, 2012.08.23

Bloomberg Singapore Jobs, S. Korea Output Reflect EU Trade Impact: Economy By Shamim Adam and Eunkyung Seo - Apr 30, 2012 1:53 PM GMT+0900 Singapore’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose and growth in South Korean industrial output slowed in March, underscoring the continued impact of Europe’s crisis on Asian economies reliant on trade.

Bloomberg Bernanke Takes On Krugman’s Criticism Ignoring Own Advice By Jeff Kearns and Craig Torres Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke took on Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman yesterday and called his advice to reduce unemployment by boosting inflation “reckless.”

Bloomberg Geithner Calls China’s Changes on Yuan Very Significant By Ian Katz U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said China’s decision to widen the yuan’s trading band against the dollar reflects changes that are “very significant and very promising.”

Bloomberg Service Industries in U.S. Kept Expanding in March: Economy By Alex Kowalski - 2012.04.04 12:42 PM Service industries in the U.S. grew in March, capping the strongest quarter in a year and indicating the world’s largest economy will keep generating jobs.

I think that people should own some gold and I think that people should own some equities, because before the collapse will happen, with Mr. Bernanke at the Fed, they're going to print money and print and print and print. So what you can get is a bad economy with rising equity prices. - Marc Faber , in CNBC, 04/02/2012 CNBC: 'Massive Wealth Destruction' Is About to Hit Investors: Faber

Somewhere down the line we will have a massive wealth destruction that usually happens either through very high inflation or through social unrest or through war or credit market collapse. Maybe all of it will happen, but at different times. - Marc Faber , in CNBC, 04/02/2012

Bloomberg China Soft Landing May Be Hard for Commodity Exporters By Bloomberg News - 2012.03.25 06:41 PM The good news: China’s government will engineer a soft landing. The bad news: Even a soft landing is painful for industries that have become dependent on the world’s fastest-growing major economy as their main profit engine.

Bloomberg U.S. Consumer Sentiment Climbs Toward ’08 Levels By Timothy R. Homan - 2012.02.28 01:28 PM Consumer-confidence measures are climbing out of the depths reached during the last recession as employers step up hiring and stocks rally, signaling Americans may be poised to increase spending.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-27/pending-sales-of-existing-homes-in-u-s-increase-a-more-than-estimated-2-.html Pending U.S. Home Resales Show Housing Market Regaining Footing: Economy By Shobhana Chandra - 2012.02.27 08:39 AM More Americans than forecast signed contracts to buy previously owned homes in January, indicating the industry that sparked the last recession is improving.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-24/sales-of-new-homes-in-u-s-probably-increased-to-highest-in-nine-months.html Sales of New Homes in the U.S. Probably Climbed to Highest in Nine Months By Shobhana Chandra - 2012.02.23 09:01 PM Purchases of new homes in the U.S. probably rose in January to a nine-month high, more evidence the housing market is improving, economists said before a report today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-13/multifamily-buildings-to-lead-u-s-construction-gains-this-year-economy.html Related News: Economy · U.S. · Real Estate Multifamily Buildings to Lead U.S. Construction Gains: Economy By Bob Willis - 2012.02.13 07:46 AM Construction of multifamily units will lead the U.S. building industry again this year, allowing housing to contribute to growth for the first time in seven years, according to economists Michelle Meyer and Celia Chen.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204883304577220940888898860.html ECONOMY FEBRUARY 13, 2012, 10:19 A.M. ET. OECD Hints at Developed-Economy Recovery By PAUL HANNON LONDON—The world's developed economies may be set to emerge from several months of slowdown, led by the U.S. and Japan, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.