PIMCO Cyclical Outlook for the U.S.: Will Washington’s Choices Foster or Frustrate Growth?

PIMCO Cyclical Outlook for the U.S.: Will Washington’s Choices Foster or Frustrate Growth?

· We expect U.S. growth in the range of 1.25% to 1.75% over the cyclical horizon, and housing will be an important component.

· Our base case for the fiscal cliff is for temporary extensions on important provisions with the difficult decisions on entitlement and tax reform deferred until 2013 or even beyond.

· The Federal Reserve took another large step down the path of experimental monetary policy when it announced numeric thresholds for unemployment and inflation.

· We believe that investors should consider reducing risk, concentrating Treasury holdings in the intermediate (five- to 10-year) part of the yield curve where direct Fed policy support will have the most impact, and rotating away from nominal assets to real assets.