Chile: We expect consumer prices to have inched down modestly in November

Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 07 Dec 2012 06:00 |

Chile: We expect consumer prices to have inched down modestly in November.

CHILE

We expect modest deflation in November. The report will be unveiled today. After an upside surprise in October, consumer price inflation is expected to have dived into negative terrain in November. The m/m decline is estimated to be modest, though. We look for a negative print smaller than 0.1% in absolute terms. If the forecast materializes, the y/y inflation rate would have declined to 2.5% last month. The median estimate from the Bloomberg survey expects consumer prices to have remained unchanged last month. The consensus y/y rate expectation is 2.6%.

Below the headline, the main downward push should have come from gasoline prices, which are estimated to have declined a whopping 4% m/m. Food price pressures are also expected to have abated in November.

The merchandise trade balance is expected to have bounced in November. Based on partial evidence for the first three weeks of the month, the merchandise trade surplus is expected to have increased to USD 0.6bn in November. If the forecast materializes, the trade surplus would have increased to USD 4.7bn on a 12-month sum basis.