Chile: Consumer confidence remained in optimistic territory in November

Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 12 Dec 2012 06:00 |

Chile: Consumer confidence remained in optimistic territory in November.

CHILE

Consumer confidence remained in optimistic territory in November. Consumer confidence rose to 53.4 last month, according to Adimark. This is the sixth straight month with consumer sentiment readings above the 50 neutral level.

According to Adimark, steadily robust economic growth and dynamic employment growth have likely helped to keep consumer sentiment readings in optimistic territory recently. These upbeat growth trends have also been accompanied by modest increases in prices to which consumers are sensitive (including fuel, transport and food).

The monthly survey of economists showed little changes, as expected. Both the 1y and 1y/1y inflation estimates were unchanged at 3%, according to this month’s survey. The same is true for the year-end 2013 and 2014 forecasts. For the current month, expectations are for a 0.1% monthly increase.

Regarding the policy rate, the near-term outlook remained unchanged: No rate changes are expected during the next 12 months. In contrast, the rate estimate in a year and a half and two years’ time was increased to 5.25%, thus implying only one 25bp hike.

Separately, growth expectations improved modestly. Real GDP growth is now seen at 5.5% and 4.8% this year and next, up from previous estimates of 5.2% and 4.8%, respectively.

The bi-monthly survey of financial market participants will be released today. Little changes are also expected in this survey.