_Economy and Finance

Turkey: Gradual recovery in IP At 1.6% y/y, February’s industrial production (IP) index was slightly below the market consensus and our expectation of 2%. On a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis, IP increased by 1.5% m/m, following a rise of 2.4% m/m in January and offset the 3.5% m/m contraction in December. The weaker-than-expected IP data in February hint that the economic recovery is likely to be gradual and slower than envisaged, despite the CBRT’s monetary easing. Yet, we expect the pickup in the manufacturing activity to become more visible in Q2, as suggested by the strong pace of credit growth and above 50 PMI readings.

Chile: Feeble February Growth Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Latam Macro Snapshot | 05 Apr 2013 | Growth of real GDP, as measured by its monthly proxy Imacec, decelerated from 6.5% y/y in January to 3.8% y/y in February. This is in line with our 3.9% y/y forecasts but falls well short of the 4.8% y/y median estimate from the Bloomberg survey.

Chile: IPoM – Life is Good, Why Change? Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Latam Macro Snapshot | 02 Apr 2013 17:11 | The Monetary Policy Report (IPoM) released today makes it clear that the central bank (BCCh) will remain on hold for the foreseeable future as it expects trend growth and on-target inflation. The base scenario is as good as it gets but the BCCh remains mindful of risks. Nothing lasts forever. The IPoM’s key conclusions are supportive of our view that BCCh will remain on hold this year.

Chile: All Reasons Lead to a Longer Pause Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Latam Macro Snapshot | 01 Apr 2013 21:13 | According to the minutes of the 14 March monetary policy meeting, there are good reasons to cut and there are good reasons to hike. But, on balance, all reasons lead to a longer pause.

http://www.realestate.bnpparibas.com/bnppre/en/market-research/overview/2012-reserved-growth-strong-fundamentals-february-2013-p_1567281.html 20/02/2013 Western Europe | Hotels Property Report H2 2012 2012: reserved growth with strong fundamentals - February 2013 At € 6 billion invested during 2012, the hotel investment volume in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom suffered a 5% drop compared to the previous year.

Brazil: Consensus revised down interest rates scenario. 2011.11.14 08:23 AM Consensus scenario incorporated more rate cuts. The central bank's weekly survey presented small changes on the inflation front, remaining at current high levels. For growth, the market consensus revised down just its 2011 forecast, but kept stuck the 2012. For monetary policy, consensus extended its easing cycle by 50bp and now foresees a full easing cycle of 250bp.