_Economy and Finance

No U.S. Recession as Forecasts Improve By Rich Miller and Vivien Lou Chen - 2011-10-10 03:34 AM The U.S. has likely dodged a recession for now, even though it’s too early to sound the all- clear for the economy.

Risk of Recession Is Still 'Quite Low': Fed's Dudley Published: Thursday, 18 Aug 2011 | 11:19 AM ET By: Reuters Despite "anemic" U.S. growth so far this year, the risk of a double-dip recession is "quite low, a top Federal Reserve policymaker said on Thursday.

Anatomy of a soft economy August 18, 2011: 5:00 AM ET It's been a tough slog coming out of the Great Recession. As for a double dip, consider this: We've had only three in 160 years. Here's a look at how this recovery compares with recessions past.

Economists' outlook darkens: See 30% chance of recession By Paul Davidson and Barbara Hansen, USA TODAY The chances of the economy slipping into another recession have risen significantly, and forecasts for economic growth and job gains over the next year have been substantially downsized, according to USA TODAY's quarterly survey of top economists.

Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg - CNBC By: Jeff Cox Positive gross domestic product readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly truth: The US economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday. ...

Why the U.S. may not be the next Japan NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The fashionable thing for economists to worry about these days is deflation. It's hard to go a day without someone proselytizing that the United States is the next Japan and that a Lost Decade looms on the horizon -- or might already have even begun. ...

Busch: Recession 2011? - CNBC By: Andrew B. Busch CNBC Contributor The San Francisco Federal Reserve has published a report that is generating a lot of buzz in the financial markets. Entitled, “ Future Recession Risks ,” the paper reviews the predictive capabilities of the US Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index. This report has been cited in several articles providing outlook for a double dip recession and generating additional angst for investors. ... "For example, the spread between 10-year Treasury bond and the federal funds rate works best 18 months into the future, whereas the initial claims for unemployment insurance indicator works best two months ahead. Clearly, one should give more weight to the rate-spread indicator than the initial claims indicator when forecasting in the long run, but less weight when forecasting in the short run." “Historically, this spread, which summarizes the slope of the interest rate term structure, has been a very good predic...