_Economy and Finance

Eco Analysis - UK lending positive again but SME finance still weak (B. Hilliard) The UK money and credit release showed mortgage approvals picking up much as expected - a slightly faster pace from 63.4k to 66.7k. This is still very low compared to all the hype about the housing boom though but further gains are certain to follow. Consumer credit was a little bit weak at only £0.4bn.

Eco Analysis - Mixed UK data but Q2 still looks strong (B. Hilliard) The UK data released today show the housing market revving up in response to the government's Help to Buy scheme. UK manufacturing output surprised with a sharp fall but Q2 GDP still looks on track for a strong gain of around 0.5% qoq.

Eco Analysis - UK economy shaping up for a strong Q2 (H. Amourda, B. Hilliard) Very few data were released today. Spanish registered unemployment change declined by nearly 98.3k people ahead of the summer. In the UK, the BRC survey points to a rebound in sales in May while the construction PMI rose to 50.8 from 49.4 on the back of a strong jump in the housing component. On Wednesday, we expect the May services PMI to post some strong gains in Spain and Italy, while the divergence between the euro area and the UK should pause in May.

Eco Analysis - German ZEW survey fell in April (H. Amourda, B. Hilliard) ■ German ZEW survey fell in April Waiting for the WEO of the IMF, some key economic data were released this Tuesday. The German ZEW survey (economic sentiment) fell for the first time since November 2012, from 48.5 to 36.3 in April. On the inflation side, the final euro aggregate CPI inflation confirmed the flash estimate at 1.7% yoy while the UK CPI printed at 2.8% yoy in March. Looking ahead, we will watch closely the UK labour data and MPC minutes due to be released on Wednesday. The German ZEW survey reported a fall in both current situation (down 4.4 points to 9.2) and economic sentiment (down 12.2 points to 36.3). The Cyprus bail-in and questions on the euro area crisis management probably affected investors' sentiment. However, the balance of answers is still positive and points to an improvement of the economic growth in the next six months. Moreover, it is too early to expect a continued downwar...

Eco Analysis - UK in or out? (B. Hilliard) UK PM Cameron delivered his “Europe” speech in London and committed to holding a referendum on Britain's future in the EU if a Conservative government is re-elected in May 2015. The issue is thus set to remain theoretical for a while, but uncertainty can have a negative impact on investment flows into UK in the meantime. On the data side in Europe, French industrial confidence surprised on the downside in January as internal and external demand ebbed. Hence, in contrast with the German Zew survey, hopes that the improved market sentiment paves the way for more positive hard data in the euro area will be disappointed (at least in France in the short term).