Eco Analysis - More evidence of China in early-cycle expansion

Eco Analysis - More evidence of China in early-cycle expansion

■ Strong fiscal revenue growth

China's fiscal revenue growth rebounded further to 21.9%yoy in November from 13.7%yoy in October, the fastest pace since August 2011. More importantly, tax revenues grew 21.1%yoy, compared with 12.5%yoy in the previous month and 9%yoy during the first ten months. Value-added tax, which contributes one-quarter of total tax revenues, recovered quite strongly and grew 16.2%yoy in November (vs. 9.2%yoy in October), consistent with the improving trend in industrial and retail sales. The strength of fiscal revenue is another piece of evidence that the Chinese economy is recovering.

Eco Analysis - Disappointing data across Asia: CH trade, AU home loans, JP in recession (K. Baader, W. Yao, K. Katahira)

Eco Analysis - Disappointing data across Asia: CH trade, AU home loans, JP in recession (K. Baader, W. Yao, K. Katahira)

■ Disappointing China's trade data reflected structural weakness in both external and domestic demand.

Contrary to the activity data released over the weekend, China's trade growth in November disappointed, with exports growing 2.9%yoy (Cons. 9%, SG 7%, Previous 11.9%) and imports flat yoy (Cons. 2%, SG 0%, Previous 2.4%). As a result of weak exports, the trade surplus also came in smaller than expected at USD19.6bn (Cons. & SG, USD26.8bn), down from USD32bn in October.