Turkey: C/A deficit deteriorates further

Turkey: C/A deficit deteriorates further
Emre Tekmen - Market Economics | 13 Nov 2013 10:54

At USD 3.3bn, September's current account deficit was higher than the market’s expectations (USD 2.7bn) and our above-consensus forecast (USD 3.0bn). In addition, January-August current account deficit was revised up by a total of USD 1.4bn, mainly due to lower tourism revenues. As a result, 12-month cumulative c/a deficit reached USD 59.1bn in September, from USD 58.5bn in August. Non-energy current account deficit also widened by USD 0.8bn to USD 9.3bn, on a 12-month cumulative basis. Turkey was a net gold importer in September as well, contrary to last year, and 12-month cumulative net gold imports reached a record high of USD 7.3bn. At the same time, we also note that seasonally adjusted current account deficit excluding gold and energy has been widening gradually since the start of the year.

Enter Sandman?

Enter Sandman?

Julia Coronado - Market Economics
US Daily Spotlight | 09 Jul 2013 00:06 |

Markets settled down a little on Monday with Treasuries yields retracing nearly half their Friday spike and equities posting another modest gain closing just under 2% below their peak on May 21, the day before Chairman Bernanke effectively endorsed tapering. With little data to digest investors are looking to a series of bond auctions and a speech from Chairman Bernanke on Wednesday afternoon to set the tone. Bernanke will speak at a conference sponsored by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) titled “The First 100 Years of the Federal Reserve: The Policy Record, Lessons Learned, and Prospects for the Future”. There is no title listed on the conference agenda but Chairman Bernanke closes the conference after four academic papers on political influences on Fed policy, international influences, appropriate design of a central bank, and the Fed’s track record on regulation. The lunch will feature a talk by Paul Volcker moderated by Martin Feldstein. The Federal Reserve Board has confirmed there will be a prepared text for the Chairman’s talk and he will take audience questions.

Chile: Two Activity Roads Diverged More

Chile: Two Activity Roads Diverged More

Nader Nazmi, Oscar Munoz - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 28 Jun 2013 18:26 | 242 Kb

Supply and demand data diverged further in May. Retail sales data showed continued strong consumer demand while manufacturing and IP data reflected slowing production. Manufacturing production declined 4.2% y/y in May, surprising our and market expectations projecting expansions of 1.3% and 1.7% y/y, respectively. The setback in manufacturing production was broad-based with eight of its thirteen divisions retreating in the month. Apart from being impacted by a high comparison base, the main contribution to the annual contraction came from lower production of chemicals (-12.6% y/y).

Chile: Q1 Growth Disappoints

Chile: Q1 Growth Disappoints

Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 20 May 2013 16:29 |

GDP growth came in 4.1% y/y in Q1, weaker than the consensus estimate of 4.5% and our own projection of 4.4%. On a quarterly basis, growth posted 0.50% q/q (sa) higher in Q1, in line with our 0.45 q/q call but weaker than 1.0% q/q consensus projection (Chart 1).

Peru: Deteriorating terms of trade and trade balance in Q1

Peru: Deteriorating terms of trade and trade balance in Q1

Nader Nazmi, Oscar Munoz - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 13 May 2013 20:37 |

The trade balance shifted to a deficit of USD 29mn in Q1 from a surplus of USD 1.5bn in Q4. On a 12-month accumulated basis, Peru’s trade surplus narrowed to USD 3.4bn in March from USD 10.8bn a year ago.

Chile: Deeper Deflation than Expected

Chile: Deeper Deflation than Expected

Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 08 May 2013 14:04 |

Consumer prices declined 0.5% m/m in April. The monthly decline exceeded the 0.1% m/m drop that the consensus and we had anticipated. The main difference was a 2.0% m/m decline in transportation prices, which subtracted 0.4pp from headline inflation. The decline in transportation prices was driven by a 13.2% m/m drop in bus fares due to holiday-related factors.

Canadian Cool Down

Canadian Cool Down

Bricklin Dwyer - Market Economics
US Daily Spotlight | 09 May 2013 00:20 |

The housing market in Canada continues to be the most significant risk facing the economy. While the economy is closely tied to both US economic (mostly autos and housing) growth and global commodity prices, the Canadian consumer has been the driving force behind economic growth, making up over 54% of GDP. In spite of the lacklustre 0.7% q/q saar and 0.6% rates of GDP growth in Q3 and Q4 last year, personal consumption expenditures contributed 1.5pp to growth each quarter and kept the economy expanding. Despite this persistent strength in consumption, growth in disposable income and residential investment has slowed substantially – pointing to vulnerability in consumer demand.

Chile: Growth Disappoints in March and in Q1

Chile: Growth Disappoints in March and in Q1

Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 06 May 2013 14:50 |

Chile’s monthly GDP (Imacec) fell well short of expectations with growth slowing to a 20-month low in March. Real GDP growth decelerated from 3.8% y/y in February to 3.1% y/y in March compared to the consensus and our projections of 4.7% y/y and 5.1% y/y, respectively. A 3.0% y/y contraction in manufacturing output was the main drag on growth, as expected. Growth in the service sector (+4.1% y/y), however, also disappointed. Mining output increased 6.9% y/y.

Chile – Consumer confidence retreats in March.

Chile – Consumer confidence retreats in March.

March consumer confidence fell to 56.8 from 58.1 in February. This was the lowest confidence level since a 53.4 print reached in November. However, compared with last March, consumer confidence improved 22.9%. We continue to expect a gradual moderation in domestic demand during the year, helping to keep inflation in check and the policy rate steady.

Chile

Chile

In a broadly neutral statement – and as expected – the Central Bank of Chile (BCCh) kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.0%. The board maintained its data-dependent stance and further reinforced our call for the bank to remain on hold for the foreseeable future.

Poland: MPC dovish on economy and inflation, but in denial that swift rate cuts are needed

Poland: MPC dovish on economy and inflation, but in denial that swift rate cuts are needed
Michal Dybula - Market Economics | 10 Apr 2013 16:06

The MPC left interest rates unchanged, in line with expectations. While the post-meeting statement highlighted the weakness of the economy and major disinflation, the Council made also clear that its upcoming decision will depend on the probability of inflation remaining considerably below the inflation target over the medium-run.