July 18, 2013
Eco Analysis - UK economy on track for a firm Q2 (M. Martinez)
In the UK, retail sales increased in June and are now up 0.9% qoq in Q2. This bodes well for Q2 GDP number to be released next week. (SG: 0.6% qoq). Signs that a cyclical recovery is ongoing have become clear in the UK, in contrast to the euro area. In France, FM Moscovici announced that the Livret A rate will be cut to 1.25% from 1.75% from 1 August. In Greece, the parliament approved the bill that clears the way for the release of the remaining IMF/ESM fund tranche
Showing posts with label M. Martinez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label M. Martinez. Show all posts
Thursday, July 18, 2013
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
Eco Analysis - France: No sign of sentiment up according to INSEE (M. martinez)
Eco Analysis - France: No sign of sentiment up according to INSEE (M. martinez)
The most observed component of the INSEE survey, the business climate index in the industrial sector fell from 89 to 86. As it improves slightly in the service sector, the business climate index for the whole economy was stable at 87. This is a low level (1.3 standard deviations below average) which points at best to stalled activity in the near term. We have the long held view that INSEE surveys help generally improve accurate forecasts of GDP growth in the near term (our econometric model has a solid R²=0.93). The main reason is that the INSEE surveys are completed on a broad basis (4,000 of companies). The January surveys' results do not change our forecast at -0.1%qoq in Q4 12 and Q1 13, but we believe risks are tilted to the downside. Bottom line: the government 2013 GDP growth forecast of 0.8% looks increasingly unlikely after such a weak start to 2013 (SG forecast for 2013 is zero growth). Hence, we believe that the government would be obliged to make a further budgetary adjustment to achieve the public deficit target (3.0% of GDP). The government could instead opt for a minor fiscal slippage. We believe that the government will not confront such a choice before March 2013, once final 2012 GDP and fiscal figures will be known.
The most observed component of the INSEE survey, the business climate index in the industrial sector fell from 89 to 86. As it improves slightly in the service sector, the business climate index for the whole economy was stable at 87. This is a low level (1.3 standard deviations below average) which points at best to stalled activity in the near term. We have the long held view that INSEE surveys help generally improve accurate forecasts of GDP growth in the near term (our econometric model has a solid R²=0.93). The main reason is that the INSEE surveys are completed on a broad basis (4,000 of companies). The January surveys' results do not change our forecast at -0.1%qoq in Q4 12 and Q1 13, but we believe risks are tilted to the downside. Bottom line: the government 2013 GDP growth forecast of 0.8% looks increasingly unlikely after such a weak start to 2013 (SG forecast for 2013 is zero growth). Hence, we believe that the government would be obliged to make a further budgetary adjustment to achieve the public deficit target (3.0% of GDP). The government could instead opt for a minor fiscal slippage. We believe that the government will not confront such a choice before March 2013, once final 2012 GDP and fiscal figures will be known.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
SG: Eco Analysis - French inflation fractionally up, at 2.5% in October, Euro area inflation set to be firm at 3.0% (M. Martinez)
2011.11.10 04:37 AM
Eco Analysis - French inflation fractionally up, at 2.5% in October, Euro area inflation set to be firm at 3.0% (M. Martinez)
■ Overall price pressures remained firm in October in France and in the euro area
Inflation remains firm, despite the fact the euro debt crisis is curbing economic growth. Consumer price inflation in France edged higher in October. The harmonized rate increased to 2.5% yoy from 2.4%, while the national measure rose from 2.2% to 2.3%. Separately, the German HICP was slightly higher than the preliminary estimate (+0.1% mom, +2.9% yoy). Despite this fact, there is no change in our forecast for the euro-area measure, which is still expected to have been steady at 3.0% yoy (+0.3% mom). All these data indicate that overall price pressures remained firm in October in the euro area. Indeed, HICP probably rose by 5.1% on a 3 month annualized basis in the euro area in October (France: 3.3%, Germany: 1.1%, Italy: 13.4%, Spain: 6.4%).
Eco Analysis - French inflation fractionally up, at 2.5% in October, Euro area inflation set to be firm at 3.0% (M. Martinez)
■ Overall price pressures remained firm in October in France and in the euro area
Inflation remains firm, despite the fact the euro debt crisis is curbing economic growth. Consumer price inflation in France edged higher in October. The harmonized rate increased to 2.5% yoy from 2.4%, while the national measure rose from 2.2% to 2.3%. Separately, the German HICP was slightly higher than the preliminary estimate (+0.1% mom, +2.9% yoy). Despite this fact, there is no change in our forecast for the euro-area measure, which is still expected to have been steady at 3.0% yoy (+0.3% mom). All these data indicate that overall price pressures remained firm in October in the euro area. Indeed, HICP probably rose by 5.1% on a 3 month annualized basis in the euro area in October (France: 3.3%, Germany: 1.1%, Italy: 13.4%, Spain: 6.4%).
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)