Eco Analysis - France: No sign of sentiment up according to INSEE (M. martinez)

Eco Analysis - France: No sign of sentiment up according to INSEE (M. martinez)

The most observed component of the INSEE survey, the business climate index in the industrial sector fell from 89 to 86. As it improves slightly in the service sector, the business climate index for the whole economy was stable at 87. This is a low level (1.3 standard deviations below average) which points at best to stalled activity in the near term. We have the long held view that INSEE surveys help generally improve accurate forecasts of GDP growth in the near term (our econometric model has a solid R²=0.93). The main reason is that the INSEE surveys are completed on a broad basis (4,000 of companies). The January surveys' results do not change our forecast at -0.1%qoq in Q4 12 and Q1 13, but we believe risks are tilted to the downside. Bottom line: the government 2013 GDP growth forecast of 0.8% looks increasingly unlikely after such a weak start to 2013 (SG forecast for 2013 is zero growth). Hence, we believe that the government would be obliged to make a further budgetary adjustment to achieve the public deficit target (3.0% of GDP). The government could instead opt for a minor fiscal slippage. We believe that the government will not confront such a choice before March 2013, once final 2012 GDP and fiscal figures will be known.