Florencia Vazquez - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 23 Jan 2013 20:25 |
The merchandise trade surplus was reported to have stood at USD 0.53 billion in December. The reading stood fairly in line with our forecast and the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey (USD 0.57 and 0.48 billion, respectively).
The trade surplus thus rose to USD 12.7 billion in 2012, up from a USD 10.0 billion result the previous year (Chart 1). The strong result was seen despite weak export performance: exports contracted 3.0% and 5.0% y/y last year in nominal and real terms, respectively. But merchandise imports contracted even more (down 7% y/y in both nominal and real terms) due to official restrictions (Chart 2).
We expect additional, modest trade surplus gains in 2013 thanks to the expected recovery in exports (mainly thanks to the estimated bounce in the value of the harvest). That being said, a potential relaxing of import restrictions this year will partially offset that improvement.
Details:
-Both exports and imports disappointed in December compared to our forecast by having contracted 5% and 9% y/y, respectively. We had looked for a flat export result and for a more modest import decline. That being said, while exports contracted in sequential (sa) terms, imports jumped a strong 6.3% m/m (sa) in December.
-Exports declined 5% y/y pushed lower by a 9% contraction in shipments that could not be fully offset by a 4% y/y increase in prices. In seasonally adjusted terms exports contracted 2.1% m/m and were running at a 7.2% 3m/3m (saar) pace last month. The y/y contraction reflected slides in exports of fuel and industrial manufactures (down 29% and 8% y/y, respectively). The 17% y/y contraction in agricultural manufactures in real terms was nearly fully offset by an increase in prices. In contrast, exports of primary goods were the only component that advanced (up 13% y/y) lifted by both shipments and prices.
-The pace of import contraction intensified in December. The poor performance resulted from declines in both quantities and prices (-7% and -2% y/y, respectively). All main components suffered y/y slides last month, but the largest decline in absolute terms was seen in the case of fuel imports (down 20% y/y). Imports of intermediate goods came in second in terms of the decline in absolute terms, having contracted 8% y/y.
-The energy trade deficit (12-month sum) widened modestly to USD 3.1 billion in December. This result implies a moderate worsening from 2011’s USD 2.9 billion negative reading (Chart 3).
Please see below for details and disclaimers.
Florencia Vazquez
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