Eco Analysis - France: No sign of sentiment up according to INSEE (M. martinez)

Eco Analysis - France: No sign of sentiment up according to INSEE (M. martinez)

The most observed component of the INSEE survey, the business climate index in the industrial sector fell from 89 to 86. As it improves slightly in the service sector, the business climate index for the whole economy was stable at 87. This is a low level (1.3 standard deviations below average) which points at best to stalled activity in the near term. We have the long held view that INSEE surveys help generally improve accurate forecasts of GDP growth in the near term (our econometric model has a solid R²=0.93). The main reason is that the INSEE surveys are completed on a broad basis (4,000 of companies). The January surveys' results do not change our forecast at -0.1%qoq in Q4 12 and Q1 13, but we believe risks are tilted to the downside. Bottom line: the government 2013 GDP growth forecast of 0.8% looks increasingly unlikely after such a weak start to 2013 (SG forecast for 2013 is zero growth). Hence, we believe that the government would be obliged to make a further budgetary adjustment to achieve the public deficit target (3.0% of GDP). The government could instead opt for a minor fiscal slippage. We believe that the government will not confront such a choice before March 2013, once final 2012 GDP and fiscal figures will be known.

Reuters: France draws fire after "alarm bells" warning

France draws fire after "alarm bells" warning
By Daniel Flynn and James Mackenzie

PARIS/ROME | Tue Nov 15, 2011 6:52pm EST

(Reuters) - France came under heavy fire on global markets Tuesday, reflecting fears that the euro zone's second biggest economy is being sucked into a spiraling debt crisis.

Bloomberg: German, French GDP Grew in Q3 on Spending

German, French GDP Grew in Q3 on Spending
By Jana Randow and Mark Deen - 2011.11.15 01:15 AM

German and French economic growth rebounded in the third quarter on stronger consumer spending, even as the region braces for a recession sparked by an escalating sovereign debt crisis.

Reuters: French credit review threatens euro zone rescues

French credit review threatens euro zone rescues
By Paul Taylor and Nicholas Vinocur
PARIS | Tue Oct 18, 2011 4:38am EDT

(Reuters) - Moody's decision to review France's triple-A credit rating cast new doubt on Tuesday on Europe's hopes of drawing a line under its sovereign debt crisis, five days before a crucial EU summit.

Bloomberg: Societe Generale Undermined by Greek Debt Crisis in Recovery from Kerviel

Related News: Finance, Europe, France, Executive, Markets Magazine
Societe Generale Undermined by Greek Debt Crisis in Recovery from Kerviel
By Richard Tomlinson and Fabio Benedetti-Valentini - Jul 26, 2011 6:15 AM GMT+0900
Bloomberg Markets Magazine

In a locked room on the 33rd floor of Societe Generale (GLE) SA’s 36-story headquarters in western Paris, members of the bank’s fraud control team peer at their computers, scrutinizing the trades being executed by dealers in eight trading rooms on the floors below.

Bloomberg:French Banks Face Greatest Italian Risk

French Banks Face Greatest Italian Risk
Q By Fabio Benedetti-Valentini - Jul 13, 2011 7:01 AM GMT+0900

French banks, including BNP Paribas SA and Credit Agricole SA (ACA), have the most at risk from the euro- region’s debt crisis infecting Europe’s largest borrower: Italy.

Reuters: France, banks agree Greek debt proposa:source

Reuters: France, banks agree Greek debt proposa:source
PARIS | Sun Jun 26, 2011 5:34pm EDT

(Reuters) - The French government and banks have agreed on a proposal to make a Greek debt rollover more palatable to creditors, a banking source said on Sunday, confirming a report in Le Figaro newspaper.

Bloomberg: Greek Default Would Spell ‘Havoc’ for European Banks a Year After Bailout

Related News: Bloomberg, UK, Ireland, Bonds, Economy, Finance, Europe, France, Eastern Europe, Germany
Bloomberg: Greek Default Would Spell ‘Havoc’ for European Banks a Year After Bailout
By Aaron Kirchfeld and Elena Logutenkova - Jun 20, 2011 12:31 PM GMT+0900

A year after European officials bailed out Greece, investors say the region’s banks haven’t raised sufficient capital or cut loans enough to withstand the contagion that may follow a default.

Bloomberg: Europe May Withhold Half of Greek Payment

Related News: Economy, Europe, France, Germany, U.K. & Ireland, Bonds, Eastern Europe, Italy, Currencies
Europe May Withhold Half of Greek Payment
By James G. Neuger and Jonathan Stearns - Jun 20, 2011 8:16 AM GMT+0900

European governments weighed withholding half of Greece’s next 12 billion-euro ($17.2 billion) aid payment, seeking to keep the country solvent while maintaining pressure on the government to slash the debt that pitched the euro area into crisis.

Bloomberg: Default by Greece ‘Almost Certain’: Greenspan

Related News: Economy, Eastern Europe, France, Germany, Italy
Default by Greece ‘Almost Certain’: Greenspan
By Vivien Lou Chen - Jun 17, 2011 8:46 AM GMT+0900

Alan Greenspan, former Federal Reserve chairman, said a default by Greece is “almost certain” and could help drive the U.S. economy into recession.

Bloomberg: Greek Default Would Not Destabilize the Euro, Bundesbank’s Weidmann Says

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Greek Default Would Not Destabilize the Euro, Bundesbank’s Weidmann Says
By Richard Weiss - Jun 12, 2011 9:46 PM GMT+0900

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann raised the pressure on governments to agree to a Greek bailout without the European Central Bank taking part in easing the country’s debt burden, saying the euro can withstand a default.

Bloomberg: Risk Rally Ending for Currencies Turns Focus to New Least Ugly-Alternative

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Risk Rally Ending for Currencies Turns Focus to New Least Ugly-Alternative
By Catarina Saraiva and Allison Bennett - May 23, 2011 1:08 PM GMT+0900

The best-performing currencies of 2011 are falling out of favor as the Federal Reserve plans its exit from record monetary stimulus just as the global economy shows signs of slowing, buffeting commodities and stocks.

CNN Money: 10 places where housing is soaring: France

10 places where housing is soaring
France

Annual increase: 9.5%

Paris has long been known for stylish people, delicious cuisine and universal health care. And let's not forget some of the priciest real estate in the world.

Bloomberg: European Stress Tests to Examine Banks’ Readiness for Basel III

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European Stress Tests to Examine Banks’ Readiness for Basel III
By Ben Moshinsky - Apr 8, 2011 8:01 AM GMT+0900

European regulators were criticized by German banks for a plan to incorporate into this year’s stress tests global capital standards that aren’t scheduled to be implemented for eight years.

Bloomberg: Portuguese Bailout Costs More Than Money Alone: Matthew Lynn

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Portuguese Bailout Costs More Than Money Alone: Matthew Lynn
By Matthew Lynn - Mar 29, 2011 8:00 AM GMT+0900
Bloomberg Opinion

Is it 50 billion euros? Or perhaps 70 billion euros? The cost of bailing out Portugal varies according to who makes the calculation. No one will know the real price until officials from the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank tell us.

Bloomberg: European Bank Funding Threatened as Basel III Meets Solvency II

Related News: Europe · France · Germany · Italy · U.K. & Ireland
European Bank Funding Threatened as Basel III Meets Solvency II
By Kevin Crowley - Mar 29, 2011 8:01 AM GMT+0900

European banks are being forced to sell more long-term bonds as regulators seek to prevent another financial crisis. European insurers say their own regulator will stop them from buying such debt.