SG: Eco Analysis - US 3Q GDP: Slower growth, but a better mix (B. Jones)

Eco Analysis - US 3Q GDP: Slower growth, but a better mix (B. Jones)
2011.11.22 07:09 AM

■ The Bureau of Economic Analysis pared Q3 GDP growth from 2.5% to 2.0%

Although the headline figure was a touch weaker than our projection (2.2%), the composition of this morning's report was pretty much in line with our thinking. All of the downward adjustment to Q3 GDP could be explained by a larger drag from inventories during the reference period. In contrast to the earlier-reported $5.4-billion build, the real level of stocks actually contracted by $8.5 billion, knocking an additional 0.47 percentage point off Q3 growth. Real final sales advanced at an annualized pace of 3.6%, unchanged from the advance report, as a narrower trade gap was countered by marginally weaker consumer and investment spending. After adjusting for the smaller external deficit, the net contribution to Q3 growth attributable to domestic demand was trimmed by about ¼ percentage point to 3.06%.

SG: Eco Analysis - Forecast Update: Home resales posted smaller decline in Oct (B. Jones)

Eco Analysis - Forecast Update: Home resales posted smaller decline in Oct (B. Jones)
2011.11.21 06:35 AM

■ Available data from state realtor associations suggest resales slipped to 4.85 million

In contrast to our previously published call for a 3.1% drop to a three-month low seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.76 million, the number of homes closed likely dipped by just 1.2% to an above-consensus 4.85 million.

SG: Eco Analysis - US Housing: Signs of life in residential construction activity (B. Jones)

Eco Analysis - US Housing: Signs of life in residential construction activity (B. Jones)
2011.11.17 08:39 AM

■ Housing starts and building permits eclipsed Street expectations in October

The Census Bureau reported that the number of new housing units started dipped by 0.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000 in October, holding on to all but a fraction of September's reported 7.7% surge. The number of new building permits issued jumped by 10.9% to 653,000 the highest level since March 2010. The reported figures were considerably higher than the respective median consensus forecasts of 610,000 and 603,000.

SG: Eco Analysis - US Employment Report: Don't be misled by the October prints (B. Jones)

Eco Analysis - US Employment Report: Don't be misled by the October prints (B. Jones)
2011.11.04 06:34 AM

■ October job gains failed to match our forecasts, but revisions placed levels even higher

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that nonfarm payrolls climbed by 80K in October, or by 104K after adjusting for continued pink-slipping by governmental entities. While last month's payroll gains failed to meet our and the Street's expectations, significant upward revisions to the previously reported figures for August and September actually left the October tallies well above projected levels. August was almost doubled from 57K to 104K, while another 55K jobs were added to the original 103K September estimate. It is worth nothing that this is the second consecutive report that saw the BLS' prior projections boosted about roughly 100K jobs.

SG: US Housing: Home prices dipped again in August

■ Home prices moved lower in 20 US cities during August (B. Jones)

S&P/Case-Shiller (SPCS) reported that home prices in the 20 US cities that they track fell by 0.05% in August, after a downward revised 0.15% decline in July. The August print marked the fourth consecutive monthly slide and was weaker than the median Street expectation for a 0.1% rise. Since April, home prices have fallen by 0.3%, erasing three quarters of the rise posted in that month. The reported August dip left the index 3.8% below its year-to-year level the smallest 12-month decline since April.

SG: Eco Analysis - US Housing Activity: Multifamily mayhem (B. Jones)

Eco Analysis - US Housing Activity: Multifamily mayhem (B. Jones)

■ Powered by a surge in multifamily activity, housing starts jumped to 17-month high

The number of new housing units started jumped by 15.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 658,000 in September, following upward-revised tallies of 615,000 in July and 572,000 in August. The reported figure exceeded the consensus expectation (590,000) by a country mile and represented the strongest activity since April 2010 (687,000). Reflecting solid demand for rental dwellings, multifamily starts soared by 51.3% to 233,000, accounting for all but a fraction of last month's rise. Single-family starts, climbed by a comparatively modest 1.7% to 425,000, essentially matching the July-August average.

SG: New home sales slumped to a five-month low in July (B. Jones)

Eco Analysis - New home sales slumped to a five-month low in July (B. Jones)

■ Consistent with our expectation, new home sales remained on a downtrend

The Census Bureau reported that the number of new homes going to contract slipped by 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 298,000 in July, boosting the cumulative slide since April to 5.7%. Downward adjustments to the previously reported figures for April through June pared the Q2 average by 7,000 to 308,000.