Eco Analysis - Forecast Update: Home resales posted smaller decline in Oct (B. Jones)
2011.11.21 06:35 AM
■ Available data from state realtor associations suggest resales slipped to 4.85 million
In contrast to our previously published call for a 3.1% drop to a three-month low seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.76 million, the number of homes closed likely dipped by just 1.2% to an above-consensus 4.85 million.
■ Reason for estimate revision: Available state data for October
Based upon sales figures from 11 states, including some large ones such as California, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas, it appears that the actual number of contracts closed was much higher than that suggested by the National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index. Resales in the quarter of the nation that we have hard data on fell by 1.2% to 1.162 million from 1.176 million in September. Our revised projection assumes a similar pullback in the remainder of the country.
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