_Economy and Finance

空行空返。 - 中國俗談 No song, no supper. - Chinese Proverb

If you want happiness for an hour? take a nap. If you want happiness for a day? Go fishing. If you want happiness for a year? Inherit a fortune. If you want happiness for a lifetime? Help someone else. - Chinese Proverb 한 시간 행복하고 싶다면 낮잠을 자라. 하루를 행복하고 싶다면 낚시를 해라. 일년을 행복하고 싶다면 재산을 물려받아라. 일생을 행복하고 싶다면 다른 사람을 도와라. - 중국속담

CHINA NEWS June 6, 2013, 5:30 a.m. ET China's Jinchuan May Halve Its Copper Supply The Company's Force Majeure Will Likely Push Copper Prices, Premiums Higher By CLEMENTINE WALLOP And YUE LI A major Chinese copper producer has declared force majeure at one of its smelters, in a move that is likely to halve the amount of metal it supplies to customers for the next few months. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324299104578528731246475470.html

Our brothers keep careful accounts. - Chinese Proverb

May 8, 2013 Metal Detector Update Why are Chinese copper imports falling? Max Layton, Roger Yuan, Jeffrey Currie Lower Chinese copper imports do not equal weak consumption Chinese unwrought copper imports for April fell by 7% mom, and dropped 21% yoy over the same period, implying a 20-25kt mom fall in refined copper imports in April, to c.195-200kt. The mom fall reflects China’s ability to draw on domestic SHFE and Chinese bonded copper stocks accumulated in 2012, as well as lower Chilean exports owing to the port strike in late March/early April. Owing primarily to the large Chinese stock draws, the early indications are that Chinese apparent demand rose significantly in April, following a small pick-up in March (apparent demand equals refined production plus net imports minus estimated stock change). This estimated pick-up in apparent demand is line with strong semi-fabricated output growth in 1Q13 and industry anecdotes of a further pick-up in demand in April.

Economics Research | Asia Ex-Japan 15 April 2013 First Insights: China: Minister of Finance indicates policy easing unlikely The surprisingly weak Q1 GDP data in China have led to the important question: will the government loosen policy to stimulate the economy as it did in 2009 and 2012? We believe policy easing is not likely. An article published today by the newly-elected Minister of Finance Lou Jiwei reinforces our view.

Texas Refinery Is Saudi Foothold in U.S. Market Published: Friday, 5 Apr 2013 | 9:21 AM ET By: By Clifford Krauss PORT ARTHUR, Tex. — It is hard to imagine the desert sands of the Persian Gulf being any farther away than from this swampy refinery port known for Cajun food, sport fishing and being the birthplace of Janis Joplin. But right in the middle of town stands a strategic outpost for Saudi Arabia's global ambitions, although one that the Saudis appear loath to publicize. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100618028

Economics Research | Asia Ex-Japan 21 March 2013 First Insights: China: HSBC flash manufacturing PMI rebounds in March The HSBC China flash manufacturing PMI rebounded to 51.7 in March from 50.4 in February, much stronger than expected (Consensus: 50.8; Nomura: 51.0). The 1.3 percentage point (pp) jump in March cannot be explained by seasonal factors alone. Since the HSBC PMI data started in 2005, there have been four years when the lunar new year holiday fell in February; in these years, the PMI rose by an average of 0.6pp in March.

Asia Special Report: China: Rising risks of financial crisis · China is displaying the same three symptoms that Japan, the US and parts of Europe all showed before suffering financial crises: a rapid build-up of leverage, elevated property prices and a decline in potential growth.

'Dr. Copper' Has Raised Doubts About Recovery Published: Tuesday, 12 Mar 2013 | 1:24 PM ET By: Jeff Cox CNBC.com Senior Writer Both the stock market rally and economic recovery are missing what historically has been a key element - a house call from "Dr. Copper." http://www.cnbc.com/id/100546529

Eco Analysis - China's recovery is more gradual than expected (W. Yao) ■ China's food-fuelled inflation and housing-driven growth China's February CPI increased more than expected by 3.2%yoy, but will most likely fall back again in March. Money and credit growth moderated in February but remained accommodative. Meanwhile, growth data for January and February combined were mixed. Industrial production disappointed, while fixed asset investment powered ahead, thanks to the incredibly buoyant property market. Retail sales weakened considerably, but the main cause was probably the laudable anti-corruption campaign waged by the new leaders. Overall, the data still suggest that the recovery is on track, albeit more gradual than initially anticipated. Wei YAO

China's ragtag shale army a long way from revolution By Chen Aizhu BEIJING | Sun Mar 10, 2013 6:36pm EDT (Reuters) - China's plans to unlock what could be the world's biggest shale gas reserves risk running further off track after 16 firms awarded exploration rights in the latest auction lacked one core skill - not one has drilled a gas well before. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/10/us-china-shale-idUSBRE9290GR20130310

China's copper anxiety and the Glencore-Xstrata delay By Shelley DuBois, writer-reporter March 6, 2013: 12:49 PM ET China needs copper in ways that more mature markets don't. So they are taking their time reviewing the commodities mega-merger. http://management.fortune.cnn.com/2013/03/06/china-copper-glencore-xstrata/

ECONOMICS ECO ANALYSIS March 4, 2013 Eco Analysis - Asia Round-up: Property market tightening in China sours the mood (K. Baader, W. Yao) Asian stock markets started the week on a sour note, reacting to news of additional measures in mainland China to restrain real estate prices. This was arguably also the main factor driving down the Australian dollar, although the economic news reports this morning were also weak. The main exception to stock market weakness was Japan, where stocks are trading firmer despite a fractionally stronger yen. The relative stability of the yen is noteworthy, given that the proposed new BoJ governor, Mr Kuroda, reiterated in his confirmation hearing his strongly dovish bias, arguing for accelerated and broadened asset purchases. Lastly, an unexpectedly weak inflation reading in South Korea in our view boosted the chances of a rate cut by the Bank of Korea, a view that appears to be shared by the market, given the sharp decline in two-year government bo...

ECONOMICS ECO ANALYSIS March 4, 2013 Eco Analysis - China National People\'s Congress meeting preview (W. Yao) The annual plenary session of the National People's Congress (NPC) will convene on 5 March and close on 17 March. There is more to watch than just the routine Government Work Report and fiscal budget. New government leaders - including the President, Premier and top Ministers - will be appointed and formally take the helm. On the reform front, aside from affirmative rhetoric, we expect two concrete steps.

Economics Research | Asia Ex-Japan 01 March 2013 First Insights: China: Another round of policy tightening in the property sector The government announced today a set of new tightening policies in the property market, including: (1) imposing a 20% capital gain tax on property transactions; (2) the PBoC to raise the down payment requirement and mortgage rate in cities, where property prices have risen quickly; and (3) extending the "local resident" requirement to cities, where property prices have increased swiftly and (4) for cities with "local resident" requirements, such policies shall be implemented in a more restrictive way.

Economics Research | Asia Ex-Japan 25 February 2013 First Insights: China: HSBC flash PMI drops surprisingly The HSBC flash PMI dropped surprisingly to 50.4 in February from 52.3 in January (Consensus: 52.2; Nomura: 53.3). The new orders subcomponent fell to 50.9 from 53.1 in January and new export orders to 49.8 from 53.7. The output subcomponent fell to 50.9 from 53.1, while that for the stock of finished goods rose slightly to 49.8 from 49.6.

Economics Research | Asia Ex-Japan | Nomura 25 February 2013 First Insights: China: Fuel price hikes add to inflationary pressures China last night announced a hike in gasoline and diesel retail prices, effective today. Increases of 3.5% and 3.8% have been applied, respectively, adding RMB300 and RMB290 to the prices per ton. This is the second major price hike announced in five days – on 20 February we saw the largest hike in the rail freight tariff rate since 2003, which was unusual in terms of timing as tariff hikes in Q1 are not common.

Eco Analysis - China's stubborn housing inflation risks further policy tightening (W. Yao) China January housing inflation accelerated to the fastest pace since early 2011. This report justifies Beijing's renewed hawkishness on the housing market. Further acceleration of housing inflation will most likely trigger more policy tightening. Meanwhile, RBA Governor Stevens sounded rather upbeat on the economy in testimony to Parliament, and rather disinclined to cut rates in the short term. Key points were that there is a good deal of stimulus in the pipeline from previous easing, and that the high A$ has been a key factor in the current low rate setting. In response, the A$ strengthened nearly 1c and short-term rates rose.

Economics Research | Asia Ex-Japan 22 February 2013 Asia Chart Alert: China: Property prices rose faster in January This should further pressure the government to tighten monetary and property market policies. Fig. 1: Property price growth and M2 growth