_Economy and Finance

Macroeconomic Report: ISM PMI English 한국어 Definition & Threshold A survey-based diffusion index of purchasing managers. A reading > 50 signifies manufacturing expansion; Release Timing Published on the first business day of every month at 10:00 AM ET . Market Significance The premier leading indicator for the business cycle. A move from below 50 to above 50 heavily influences stock market risk appetite as it signals corporate growth. Current 13-Month Trend After remaining trapped below 50 for the entirety of 2025, the index broke out forcefully in Q1 2026 (reaching 52.7 in March), confirming a powerful manufacturing rebound. 지표 정의 및 기준점 구매 담당자 설문조사 기반의 지수로, 50을 넘으면 제조업 확장, 50 미만이면 수축을 의미합니다. 발표 시점 매월 첫 번째 영업일 , 미국 동부 시간 오전 10시 에 발표됩니다. 시장에 미치는 영향 경제 주기를 가장 먼저 알려주는 선행 지표입니다. 5...

Macro Insight: Core PCE Price Index English 한국어 Definition & Mechanics Measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. It accounts for consumer substitution (trading down to cheaper items) and includes third-party expenditures like employer healthcare. The Core PCE (excluding food and energy) is the Fed's ultimate 2% inflation gauge. Release Timing Published monthly , typically the last Thursday or Friday of the month at 08:30 AM ET . Market Significance It acts as the Federal Reserve's official scorecard. Rate cut trajectories depend heavily on Core PCE continuing its descent. A lower-than-expected print often ignites significant risk-on rallies in the equity markets. Current 13-Month Trend The data highlights a steady disinflationary trend through 2025, bottoming at 2.8% in November, before experiencing a slight u...

Labor Market Insight: Non-Farm Payrolls English 한국어 Definition Measures the monthly change in U.S. employment, excluding farm workers, government household staff, and non-profit employees. Release Timing Monthly, typically the first Friday of the month at 08:30 AM Eastern Time (ET) . Market Significance A primary indicator of economic health and purchasing power. It heavily influences the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory, as a hot labor market can drive inflation, while a cold one signals recession. Related Metrics Always cross-reference with the Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, and JOLTs Job Openings for accurate forecasting. Future Outlook The labor market is currently navigating a path toward gradual normalization after periods of historical overheating. If the NFP gradually cools to a sustainable pace of add...

Macroeconomic Report: Inflation English 한국어 The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) What the Indicator Means The Consumer Price Index (CPI), published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services (e.g., food, housing, apparel, transportation, and medical care). Simply put, it is the most direct gauge of inflation, reflecting shifts in the cost of living. It is typically divided into "Headline CPI," which includes all items, and "Core CPI," which strips out highly volatile food and energy prices to reveal underlying long-term inflation trends. Release Frequency & Timing The CPI is released once a month, typically between the 10th and 15th of each month, reporting data for the previous month. The announcement occurs at 8:30 AM Eastern Time (ET). For global investors...