Investment, Fred Schwed Jr.

Speculation is an effort, probably unsuccessful, to turn a little money into a lot. Investment is an effort, which should be successful, to prevent a lot of money from becoming a little.

― Fred Schwed Jr., Where Are the Customers' Yachts?: Or a Good Hard Look at Wall Street

Bond bubble may be closer to popping

With the stock market heating up, there is growing concern that the long-lasting bond bubble might finally be ready to pop. As major stock indexes like the Dow and S&P 500 soar to record highs, investors are confidently leaving the safety of bonds to chase higher returns in equities. Consequently, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has climbed past 2 percent, hitting an 11-month high. As the economy slowly recovers, this shift toward riskier assets is likely to continue.

Adding to the shift, the Federal Reserve is expected to halt further stimulus measures, paving the way for long-term interest rates to climb naturally. Market strategists predict a steady rise in yields, potentially reaching 3.2 percent by 2015. This upward trend in rates could spell trouble for the housing market, as higher mortgage rates would likely slow down home buying and refinancing, ultimately squeezing the banks.

Other global factors are also pushing rates higher. Aggressive money-printing in Japan and Europe is strengthening the U.S. dollar, while ongoing political battles in Washington over the debt ceiling raise the threat of another credit downgrade. The transition might not be a sudden crash like previous financial crises, but it certainly signals a bumpy road ahead for bond investors.

Based on the article: Paul R. La Monica, "Bond bubble may be closer to popping" (CNNMoney) • Read the original post

최근 주식 시장이 뜨겁게 달아오르면서, 오랜 기간 이어져 온 채권 시장의 거품이 꺼질 수 있다는 우려가 커지고 있습니다. 다우와 S&P 500 지수가 연일 최고치를 기록하면서 투자자들은 안전한 채권보다는 수익성이 높은 주식으로 눈을 돌리고 있습니다. 그 결과, 미국 10년물 국채 금리는 최근 11개월 만에 가장 높은 수준인 2퍼센트 위로 올라섰습니다. 경제가 천천히 회복됨에 따라 투자자들의 이러한 위험 선호 현상은 당분간 계속될 것으로 보입니다.

여기에 미국 연방준비제도가 시장에 돈을 더 푸는 부양책을 멈출 것으로 예상되면서 금리 상승세는 더욱 뚜렷해질 전망입니다. 전문가들은 10년물 국채 금리가 꾸준히 올라 2015년에는 3.2퍼센트까지 도달할 수 있다고 분석합니다. 이렇게 금리가 오르면 주택 담보 대출 금리도 함께 뛰어올라 부동산 시장의 활기를 떨어뜨리고 은행들에게도 큰 부담이 될 수 있습니다.

뿐만 아니라, 일본과 유럽의 돈 풀기 정책으로 인한 달러 가치 상승, 그리고 미국의 국가 부채를 둘러싼 정치권의 갈등도 금리를 끌어올리는 불안 요소로 꼽힙니다. 과거 금융 위기처럼 한순간에 시장이 무너지는 충격은 아닐지라도, 안전하다고 믿었던 채권 시장에 곧 찬바람이 불어올 수 있습니다.

참고자료: Paul R. La Monica, "Bond bubble may be closer to popping" (CNNMoney) • 기사 원문 읽기

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