_Economy and Finance

Economic Briefing Germany: Only a small minus for manufacturing in May In May, German industry cut production by 1% on the previous month. But since output had increased significantly in the two preceding months, the average over April and May was nearly 3% up on the first quarter, which leads us to expect a very large gain in GDP. However, this momentum is unlikely to continue in the third quarter. Commerzbank Corporates & Markets Economic Research https://research.commerzbank.com

Commerzbank Corporates & Markets Economic Research https://research.commerzbank.com Economic Briefing Germany: Inflation back in the 2% area German consumer prices surprisingly rose 0.2% month-on-month in June. Food prices were up significantly once again, probably at least in part due to the floods in Germany. Numerous services became more expensive as well. This development seems to be a consequence of strong wage growth. The rate of inflation jumped from 1.5% in May to 1.9% in June. Kind regards, Ulrike Rondorf

RPT-Fitch: Strong Refinancing Activity in German Multifamily Housing Market Tue May 14, 2013 3:40am EDT http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/14/fitch-strong-refinancing-activity-in-ger-idUSFit65614820130514 May 14 (Reuters) - (The following statement was released by the rating agency) Fitch Ratings says in a new report that refinancing activity has been strong in the German multifamily (MFH) CMBS transactions, but balloon risk still remains.

Eco Analysis - German ZEW survey fell in April (H. Amourda, B. Hilliard) ■ German ZEW survey fell in April Waiting for the WEO of the IMF, some key economic data were released this Tuesday. The German ZEW survey (economic sentiment) fell for the first time since November 2012, from 48.5 to 36.3 in April. On the inflation side, the final euro aggregate CPI inflation confirmed the flash estimate at 1.7% yoy while the UK CPI printed at 2.8% yoy in March. Looking ahead, we will watch closely the UK labour data and MPC minutes due to be released on Wednesday. The German ZEW survey reported a fall in both current situation (down 4.4 points to 9.2) and economic sentiment (down 12.2 points to 36.3). The Cyprus bail-in and questions on the euro area crisis management probably affected investors' sentiment. However, the balance of answers is still positive and points to an improvement of the economic growth in the next six months. Moreover, it is too early to expect a continued downwar...

Commerzbank Corporates & Markets Economic Research https://research.commerzbank.com Economic Insight German Real Estate Monitor Residential property prises are rising strongly in German cities. We consider which house price indices are worth looking at and which indicators may warn of possible overheating of the market. The property market should continue to revive in the next few years, above all due to low interest rates. Even though a property bubble is less likely in Germany than it was in Spain or Ireland, the ECB’s long-standing expansionary monetary policy, maintained for the sake of the peripheral countries, poses significant long-term risks. Analyst: Ulrike Rondorf For important disclosure information, please see https://research.commerzbank.com/portal/en/site/equity/disclaimer_1/index.jsf

Eco Analysis - February German IP expands by 0.5% (H. Amourda) Only a few key economic data were released this Monday. German Industrial production expanded by 0.5% mom in February, while the number for January was revised down markedly. For Q1, growth in industrial production is likely to be around 0, up with Q4, when it fell by 2.6% qoq. Based on a stronger recovery in private consumption, we still expect a robust rebound in GDP in Q1. In the euro area, the April Sentix investor survey fell further from -10.6 in March to -17.3. We now look forward the bulk of European IP data set to be released this week. Following the stronger than expected factory orders last week, at 2.3% mom, February industrial production surprised on the upside as well. Indeed, the industrial production printed at 0.5% mom (cons: 0.3). Looking at the components, the construction sector contracted by 2.7% mom, possibly affected by poor weather conditions. The Bundesbank report shows some pressures from the e...

■ German HICP inflation decelerates to 1.8% In 2012, German HICP remained broadly stable around 2% yoy. Since the beginning of the year, HICP inflation decelerated slightly from 2.0% yoy in December to 1.8% yoy in February, thereby hitting a 27-month. Most of the fall can be attributed to lower food inflation, as we observed a fall from 4.5% yoy to 3.1% yoy. Looking ahead, we expect the German HICP to average above 2% in 2013 on the back of a relatively strong wage growth. We should also see higher inflation rates in Germany, compared to the euro area average, once VAT hikes drop out of annual comparison in H2 2013.

Eco Analysis - Impressive German labour data (M. Martinez, A. Annenkov) Hard data once gain underlined the growing divergences between the French and German economies. German labour data proved very impressive and the unemployment rate dropped to a 20 year low in January (6.8% in January. Meanwhile, French consumption was flat in Q4 12 and details suggest that it is likely to remain sluggish in Q1 13.

Germany: 2013 Will be Better Than it Looks Evelyn Herrmann The German economy grew 0.7% in 2012 compared to the previous year. After adjusting for calendar effects, German GDP grew 0.9% in real terms for 2012, according to the preliminary estimates released by the German federal statistics office yesterday. We typically watch and forecast seasonally and calendar-adjusted growth. The average annual growth would imply a quarterly contraction of 0.3% q/q in Q4 2012, in line with our forecasts.

Bloomberg Hedge Funds Make Wrong-Way Bets for a Fourth Week: Commodities By Joe Richter - Mar 25, 2012 9:21 PM Hedge funds wagered the wrong way on commodity prices for a fourth consecutive week, boosting bullish holdings just before reports showing a contraction in manufacturing from China to Europe drove prices lower.

German Investor Confidence at Three-Year Low By Gabi Thesing - 2011.11.15 02:16 AM German investor confidence fell to a three-year low in November on concern the sovereign debt crisis will push Europe’s largest economy into recession.

German, French GDP Grew in Q3 on Spending By Jana Randow and Mark Deen - 2011.11.15 01:15 AM German and French economic growth rebounded in the third quarter on stronger consumer spending, even as the region braces for a recession sparked by an escalating sovereign debt crisis.

Office Market Frankfurt - Q3 2011 At 316,300 sq m, the Frankfurt office space take-up in the first three quarters was 13% lower than in the previous year. Compared to the previous year, when the space take-up volume was strongly influenced by the owner-occupied take-up by the European Central Bank, this result can be seen as robust.Without the ECB take-up, the growth in take-up would in fact have been at a satisfactory 22%. The vacancy rate rose slightly compared to the previous quarter by 0.2% points to its current level of 17.3%. With 12,700 sq m office space having been completed in the third quarter, the volume of new completions is at its lowest level for three years. The achievable prime rent remained stable at €38.00/sq m/month. Author(s): several Source: CB Richard Ellis Published: 27.10.2011 http://www.immopro24.com/market-report/office-market-frankfurt-q3-2011_1080.html

German Consumer Prices: Unexpectedly strong inflation pressures A higher than expected reading on German consumer price inflation is another indication that underlying price pressures in Germany are rising.

Industrial output in Germany expanded strongly in May, rising by 1.2% mom, which more than made up for April's 0.8% decline. The trend in manufacturing is stronger still, with a 1.2% gain in May after a contraction of just 0.3% in April. Hence, in the first two months of Q2 industrial output was up 1.1% from the Q1 average, and manufacturing up 1.7%. Clearly this points to upward risks to predictions that the economy suffered a soft spot in Q2, and our 0.2% qoq forecast for GDP is looking a bit low.

SG: Germany New Manufacturing Orders surge as German companies boost investment New orders to German manufacturing companies in May were much stronger than expected, rising 1.8% mom, when a decline was expected. This came on top of a 2.9% gain in April.

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