_Economy and Finance

Mexico: December trade balance – Strong headline; weak results Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Latam Macro Snapshot | 25 Jan 2013 17:12 | 81 Kb Here is the good news. Mexico reported a December trade surplus of USD 962mn while the consensus was expecting a deficit of USD 936mn. Now, the not-so-good news. Both imports and exports were weak and the surplus is explained by the fact that imports were weaker than exports.

Mexico: Growth decelerated into Q4 Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Latam Macro Snapshot | 10 Jan 2013 16:20 | Mexico’s monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) expanded 0.2% m/m (sa), slightly weaker than our 0.3% m/m forecast. On an annual basis, growth accelerated from 1.2% y/y in September to 4.3% y/y in October.

Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Daily Latam Spotlight | 13 Dec 2012 06:00 | Mexico: October IP data point to continued growth moderation into Q4. MEXICO October IP data signal continued moderation in activity. Industrial production expanded 3.6% y/y in October, exceeding September’s 2.4% rise and coming in slightly better than the consensus expectation of 3.4% and our 3.0% projections. The manufacturing sector’s growth accelerated to 5.0% y/y from 1.9% y/y in October.

Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Daily Latam Spotlight | 04 Dec 2012 06:00 | Mexico: IMEF survey results reflect continued upbeat business sentiment MEXICO PMIs continue well inside the expansion zone. At 53.8 each, the IMEF manufacturing and non-manufacturing indicators both remained in the expansion territory in November. Four of the five IMEF manufacturing components (new orders, production, employment and inventory) were decidedly in the expansion territory. The inventory segment was the only sub-50 component (47.1). The new orders and production components of the non-manufacturing IMEF showed continued strength, with readings of 57.6 and 56.7, respectively.

http://www.investmenteurope.net/ Peru, Chile and Mexico are Societe Generale's favourites for LatAm investments By: Chiara Albanese 27 Nov 2012 Despite the global slowdown, favorable domestic conditions have supported the growth of Latin America's most open economies, such as Peru, Chile and Mexico, and forecasts suggest strong capital inflows for 2013 which will fuel credit growth, according to Societe Generale.

Mexico: Labour Reform Is Approved Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Latam Macro Snapshot | 14 Nov 2012 16:32 | Late last night the Senate passed a labour reform bill that had already been approved by the Chamber of Deputies. This bill will soon be signed into law by the outgoing President Felipe Calderon, ending years of failed efforts to reform Mexico’s labour market.

Mexico: Banxico’s Minutes – Limits to Patience Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Latam Macro Snapshot | 09 Nov 2012 16:45 | Worried about inflation for now. According to the minutes from the 26 October meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the board sees elevated risks to inflation near term. While it judges supply shocks as the main cause of high inflation, it is mindful of second-round effects. It is worried that price pressures, albeit temporary, will contaminate inflation expectations, result in wage hikes that exceed the inflation target and spill over to core inflation. This is especially a concern given that the output gap has closed (and is likely positive) and inflation has been stuck above the 4.0% Banxico implicit tolerance ceiling for five months.

Mexico: Inflation Downtrend Has Begun Nader Nazmi - Market Economics Latam Macro Snapshot | 08 Nov 2012 15:52 | Annual inflation fell from 4.77% in September to 4.60% in October (BNP Paribas: 4.64%). This is supportive of our view that inflation peaked in September and will fall towards our end-year 2012 projection of 4.04% in Q4 due to a more favourable base effect as well as lower food inflation.