Brazil: Retail sales – Moving up in a non-linear pace

Brazil: Retail sales – Moving up in a non-linear pace

Gustavo Arruda - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 13 Dec 2012 13:52 |

October retail sales grew 0.9%m/m, slightly above consensus of +0.8m/m and better than the September reading of 0.3%. Within sectors, three of ten sectors contracted (apparel contracted for the third month in a row). Durable goods (the most credit-related component) gained 1.4%m/m or 13.0%y/y, while non-durable goods expanded 0.1%m/m or 6.7%y/y. Broad retail sales (including construction and vehicles sales) jumped 8%m/m in October from -8.7%m/m a month earlier, due to tax breaks on vehicles sales. Looking forward, we expect retail sales to decelerate in November due to an unusually extended holiday, but they should bounce back in December. Despite volatility in these releases, we believe the trend in retail sales will probably strengthen, on the back of monetary, fiscal and credit measures - all focused on spurring growth.

Chile: The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week

Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 10 Dec 2012 06:00 |

Chile: The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week.

CHILE

The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week. BCCh will have its monthly monetary policy meeting on Thursday. We expect no changes, in line with trends throughout most of the year. The consensus agrees with this view.

BNP: Brazil: Consensus revised down interest rates scenario

Brazil: Consensus revised down interest rates scenario.
2011.11.14 08:23 AM

Consensus scenario incorporated more rate cuts. The central bank's weekly survey presented small changes on the inflation front, remaining at current high levels. For growth, the market consensus revised down just its 2011 forecast, but kept stuck the 2012. For monetary policy, consensus extended its easing cycle by 50bp and now foresees a full easing cycle of 250bp.