Russia: the CBR left rates unchanged in Nov as expected
Russia: the CBR left rates unchanged in Nov as expected In Russia, the CBR made decision to leave all key rates (depo, repo and refi) unchanged in November. This decision has been highly expected as CPI inflation slowed to 6.5%y/y in October, providing the CBR time for manoeuvre. However, we generally see October's relief in food price pressure as temporary and expect a new round of food inflation soon, resulting in a new acceleration of CPI inflation. This makes monetary tightening likely. We expect the CBR to hike rates by 25bp in Dec and see refi rate at 8.5% by 2012-end (flat in 2013). The decision is planned to in the first ten days of Dec (presumably, 7 Dec 2012).