BNP PARIBAS
Florencia Vazquez - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 05 Nov 2012 14:39 |
The monthly proxy for real GDP advanced a strong 4.6% y/y in September. The reading stood modestly ahead of our forecast and visibly above the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey (4.2% and 3.2% y/y, respectively).
The actual surprise was the strength shown by output in sequential terms: real GDP was reported to have expanded a solid 1.0% m/m in September. We expected a modest contraction based on weak manufacturing and mining reports released earlier.
The outperformance compared to our forecast was driven by the underlying strength of the service component.
The economy is thus estimated to have expanded at a 5.3% q/q (saar) pace in Q3, fairly in line with the economy’s potential growth rate. This reading implies moderation from Q2’s unsustainable 7.7% pace according to Imacec or 7.1% according to national account data.
While we expected such moderation to take place, the reading stands above our Q3 real GDP forecast. We are thus revising our 2012 real GDP estimate up to 5.4% (from a previous 5.0%). We still look for a gradual deceleration in coming quarters before the economy returns to above-potential territory in H2 2013.
No comments:
Post a Comment