Florencia Vazquez - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 05 Feb 2013 14:03 | 42 Kb
Economic activity was reported to have advanced 4.7% y/y in December according to the monthly proxy for real GDP (Imacec) unveiled by the central bank. Performance stood fairly in line with our forecast and visibly ahead of the Bloomberg consensus (4.8% and 3.7% y/y, respectively).
In sequential terms, activity expanded a strong 1.2% m/m (sa) in December to be up at a 4.4% q/q (saar) pace. The quarterly reading implies moderation from September’s above-potential 5.4% advance (Chart 1). While manufacturing and mining performance were weak in December, real retail sales performance remained stellar (Chart 2).
Data from the monthly real GDP proxy is consistent with a 5.6% output advance in 2012, a reading that stands exactly in line with our forecast. Official Q4 2012 national account data will only be unveiled on March 18.
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