By Paul R. La Monica July 11, 2011: 1:03 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- This whole euro debt crisis is starting to remind me of the tagline of "Jaws." Just when you thought it was safe to go back into stocks ... cue the ominous cello music.
Monday, July 11, 2011
CNNMoney: Arrivederci, rally! Why Italy is latest worry
Arrivederci, rally! Why Italy is latest worry
By Paul R. La Monica July 11, 2011: 1:03 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- This whole euro debt crisis is starting to remind me of the tagline of "Jaws." Just when you thought it was safe to go back into stocks ... cue the ominous cello music.
By Paul R. La Monica July 11, 2011: 1:03 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- This whole euro debt crisis is starting to remind me of the tagline of "Jaws." Just when you thought it was safe to go back into stocks ... cue the ominous cello music.
Bloomberg: Fed Data Cruncher Finding No New Normal Unemployment Nationwide
Fed Data Cruncher Finding No New Normal Unemployment Nationwide
By Vivien Lou Chen - Jul 11, 2011 8:01 AM GMT+0900
Mary Daly holds up two charts containing 33 bars that all point down. They show eight industries getting hit equally hard after the 18-month recession ended in June 2009, suggesting that much of the past two years’ high unemployment is broad-based and should dissipate as the economy improves.
By Vivien Lou Chen - Jul 11, 2011 8:01 AM GMT+0900
Mary Daly holds up two charts containing 33 bars that all point down. They show eight industries getting hit equally hard after the 18-month recession ended in June 2009, suggesting that much of the past two years’ high unemployment is broad-based and should dissipate as the economy improves.
Sunday, July 10, 2011
EU Bank Stress Tests on Sovereigns
EU Bank Stress Tests on Sovereigns
The 2011 European bank stress test results, due Friday July 15, will be closely scrutinised, and most notably on sovereign risk. This year, the EBA hope that tougher guidance and capital criteria, and substantial transparency will go a long way to winning market credibility. We estimate that under the new guidance, sovereign losses in the adverse scenario could amount to €50bn, compared to €28.2bn in 2010. And, adding the tougher capital criteria, the capital shortfall in the 2011 tests is likely to far exceed the very modest €3.5bn identified last year. The real issue is how easily banks, if needed, can raise new capital and whether governments have the necessary strength to offer “backstop measures”. The risk is to see the already frail periphery suffer yet more market aversion.
The 2011 European bank stress test results, due Friday July 15, will be closely scrutinised, and most notably on sovereign risk. This year, the EBA hope that tougher guidance and capital criteria, and substantial transparency will go a long way to winning market credibility. We estimate that under the new guidance, sovereign losses in the adverse scenario could amount to €50bn, compared to €28.2bn in 2010. And, adding the tougher capital criteria, the capital shortfall in the 2011 tests is likely to far exceed the very modest €3.5bn identified last year. The real issue is how easily banks, if needed, can raise new capital and whether governments have the necessary strength to offer “backstop measures”. The risk is to see the already frail periphery suffer yet more market aversion.
Exclusive: EU calls emergency meeting as crisis stalks Italy
Exclusive: EU calls emergency meeting as crisis stalks Italy
By Luke Baker
BRUSSELS | Sun Jul 10, 2011 2:45pm EDT
(Reuters) - European Council President Herman Van Rompuy has called an emergency meeting of top officials dealing with the euro zone debt crisis for Monday morning, reflecting concern that the crisis could spread to Italy, the region's third largest economy.
By Luke Baker
BRUSSELS | Sun Jul 10, 2011 2:45pm EDT
(Reuters) - European Council President Herman Van Rompuy has called an emergency meeting of top officials dealing with the euro zone debt crisis for Monday morning, reflecting concern that the crisis could spread to Italy, the region's third largest economy.
NYT: No, We Can’t? Or Won’t?
OP-ED COLUMNIST
No, We Can’t? Or Won’t?
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: July 10, 2011
If you were shocked by Friday’s job report, if you thought we were doing well and were taken aback by the bad news, you haven’t been paying attention. The fact is, the United States economy has been stuck in a rut for a year and a half.
No, We Can’t? Or Won’t?
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: July 10, 2011
If you were shocked by Friday’s job report, if you thought we were doing well and were taken aback by the bad news, you haven’t been paying attention. The fact is, the United States economy has been stuck in a rut for a year and a half.
WSJ: Mortgage Rates Are Great, If You Qualify
HOMES JULY 10, 2011
Mortgage Rates Are Great, If You Qualify
By TOM LAURICELLA
With interest rates near rock bottom and home prices down, this ought to be a great time to buy a home. But for most people, it's a lousy time to get a mortgage.
Mortgage Rates Are Great, If You Qualify
By TOM LAURICELLA
With interest rates near rock bottom and home prices down, this ought to be a great time to buy a home. But for most people, it's a lousy time to get a mortgage.
Saturday, July 9, 2011
NYT: Somehow, the Unemployed Became Invisible
Somehow, the Unemployed Became Invisible
By CATHERINE RAMPELL
Published: July 9, 2011
GRIM number of the week: 14,087,000.
Fourteen million, in round numbers — that is how many Americans are now officially out of work.
By CATHERINE RAMPELL
Published: July 9, 2011
GRIM number of the week: 14,087,000.
Thursday, July 7, 2011
German Industrial Production: Japan effect conspicuously absent
Industrial output in Germany expanded strongly in May, rising by 1.2% mom, which more than made up for April's 0.8% decline. The trend in manufacturing is stronger still, with a 1.2% gain in May after a contraction of just 0.3% in April. Hence, in the first two months of Q2 industrial output was up 1.1% from the Q1 average, and manufacturing up 1.7%. Clearly this points to upward risks to predictions that the economy suffered a soft spot in Q2, and our 0.2% qoq forecast for GDP is looking a bit low.
Brazil: Monthly inflation slows less than expected, annual reading picks up
Monthly IPCA inflation slowed in June, to 0.15% m/m (consensus was 0.07%), down from 0.47% m/m a month earlier (or from 0.23% m/m in mid-month IPCA-15 inflation), helped by seasonal factors. Transport and food prices were the main driver for the deceleration, as food price inflation fell into negative terrain, while transport price deflation got deeper. Transport price deflation intensified to -0.61% in June from -0.24% a month before, mainly on a decline of 4.25% on fuel prices (mostly ethanol, but also gasoline), despite a jump in airfares (from -11.57% to 12.85%). Food price inflation swung to -0.26% from 0.63% a month before.
ECB Watch: The Gentleman is not for turning
ECB Watch: The Gentleman is not for turning
Two down, more to come: as expected and officially signalled one month ago, the ECB raised all its interest rates by 25bp, bringing the key refinancing rate to 1.5%. But markets were clearly expecting signs that the ECB now believes that it is coming close to an appropriate level of interest rates which were conspicuously absent. In fact, we read the Introductory Statement as suggesting quite clearly that further rate hikes in the near future are the most likely scenario.
Two down, more to come: as expected and officially signalled one month ago, the ECB raised all its interest rates by 25bp, bringing the key refinancing rate to 1.5%. But markets were clearly expecting signs that the ECB now believes that it is coming close to an appropriate level of interest rates which were conspicuously absent. In fact, we read the Introductory Statement as suggesting quite clearly that further rate hikes in the near future are the most likely scenario.
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