Early signs of moderation. The central bank's monthly proxy for real GDP growth (IBC-Br) increased 0.2% m/m s.a. in May (consensus: 0.4% m/m), after an increase of 0.5% m/m in April. As a reference, the average monthly pace during Q1 2011 was 0.5% m/m. The annualized 3-month moving average is now running at 4.2% m/m s.a.a.r. (seasonally adjusted annual rate). That is significantly lower than the 6.0% pace in March, and good news given the need to cool the economy below potential in order to curb underlying inflation pressures. Most estimates of “potential” growth fall in the 4.0%-5.0% range. The year-on-year comparison actually accelerated to 4.3% y/y from 2.5% y/y a month before.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
Bloomberg: U.K. Unemployment Claims Climbed Last Month at Fastest Pace Since May 2009
U.K. Unemployment Claims Climbed Last Month at Fastest Pace Since May 2009
Q By Scott Hamilton - Jul 13, 2011 5:35 PM GMT+0900
U.K. jobless claims rose at their fastest pace since May 2009 last month, a sign the recovery is struggling to generate enough jobs to offset the deepest government budget cuts since World War II.
Q By Scott Hamilton - Jul 13, 2011 5:35 PM GMT+0900
U.K. jobless claims rose at their fastest pace since May 2009 last month, a sign the recovery is struggling to generate enough jobs to offset the deepest government budget cuts since World War II.
Bloomberg:French Banks Face Greatest Italian Risk
French Banks Face Greatest Italian Risk
Q By Fabio Benedetti-Valentini - Jul 13, 2011 7:01 AM GMT+0900
French banks, including BNP Paribas SA and Credit Agricole SA (ACA), have the most at risk from the euro- region’s debt crisis infecting Europe’s largest borrower: Italy.
Q By Fabio Benedetti-Valentini - Jul 13, 2011 7:01 AM GMT+0900
French banks, including BNP Paribas SA and Credit Agricole SA (ACA), have the most at risk from the euro- region’s debt crisis infecting Europe’s largest borrower: Italy.
NYT: E.U. Vows to Back Banks That Fail Stress Tests
E.U. Vows to Back Banks That Fail Stress Tests
By STEPHEN CASTLE
Published: July 12, 2011
BRUSSELS — European officials vowed on Tuesday to support banks that fail stress tests but left unresolved deep disputes that have held up a second rescue package for Greece.
By STEPHEN CASTLE
Published: July 12, 2011
BRUSSELS — European officials vowed on Tuesday to support banks that fail stress tests but left unresolved deep disputes that have held up a second rescue package for Greece.
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
NYT: How We All Suffer
How We All Suffer
July 11, 2011
Kim Luu is the editor of Money and Risk and a principal at an independent brokerage firm specializing in retirement and 401(k)s.
The federal Home Affordable Modification Program was badly designed, overly complicated and poorly communicated. Borrowers suffered through horrendous paperwork for months and years. People ran through their retirement savings during the process, and then lost their homes anyway. Meanwhile, banks are saddled with billions of dollars in losses and inventory that still need to be auctioned.
July 11, 2011
Kim Luu is the editor of Money and Risk and a principal at an independent brokerage firm specializing in retirement and 401(k)s.
The federal Home Affordable Modification Program was badly designed, overly complicated and poorly communicated. Borrowers suffered through horrendous paperwork for months and years. People ran through their retirement savings during the process, and then lost their homes anyway. Meanwhile, banks are saddled with billions of dollars in losses and inventory that still need to be auctioned.
Reuters: Analysis: Euro zone crisis enters dangerous new phase with Italy
Analysis: Euro zone crisis enters dangerous new phase with Italy
By Paul Taylor
ATHENS | Tue Jul 12, 2011 11:30am EDT
(Reuters) - The euro zone's debt crisis has taken a dangerous turn. Contagion is singeing the currency bloc's third biggest economy Italy, which would be too big to save with existing EU financial fire-fighting tools.
By Paul Taylor
ATHENS | Tue Jul 12, 2011 11:30am EDT
(Reuters) - The euro zone's debt crisis has taken a dangerous turn. Contagion is singeing the currency bloc's third biggest economy Italy, which would be too big to save with existing EU financial fire-fighting tools.
NYT: The Unemployment Factor
The Unemployment Factor
July 11, 2011
Morris A. Davis is the academic director of the James A. Graaskamp Center for Real Estate at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
July 11, 2011
Morris A. Davis is the academic director of the James A. Graaskamp Center for Real Estate at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
NYT: Out of a Job, Out of a House
Updated July 12, 2011 10:07 AM
Hanging On to Houses
Introduction
In his column on Monday, Paul Krugman said that the Obama administration has done almost nothing to help troubled homeowners. Of $46 billion set aside for mortgage relief, less than $2 billion has been spent.
Hanging On to Houses
Introduction
In his column on Monday, Paul Krugman said that the Obama administration has done almost nothing to help troubled homeowners. Of $46 billion set aside for mortgage relief, less than $2 billion has been spent.
China: Money Supply (June 2011)
China: Money Supply (June 2011)
Money and credit growth rebounded in June, suggesting that selective easing is already showing initial effect. Some temporary factors also boosted money growth. New loans were greater than last June, after January-May loans were smaller than year ago. Large deposit growth implies more lending capacity for credit conditions to ease. Meanwhile, a retreat from risk had curbed capital inflows in May-June.
Money and credit growth rebounded in June, suggesting that selective easing is already showing initial effect. Some temporary factors also boosted money growth. New loans were greater than last June, after January-May loans were smaller than year ago. Large deposit growth implies more lending capacity for credit conditions to ease. Meanwhile, a retreat from risk had curbed capital inflows in May-June.
Brazil: Inflation and rates expectations move higher
Brazil: Inflation and rates expectations move higher
Inflation expectations pick-up. The latest weekly survey of market consensus forecasts brought upward revisions to inflation expectations across all horizons.
Inflation expectations pick-up. The latest weekly survey of market consensus forecasts brought upward revisions to inflation expectations across all horizons.
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