Mexico: Banxico’s Minutes – Limits to Patience
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 09 Nov 2012 16:45 |
Worried about inflation for now.
According to the minutes from the 26 October meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the board sees elevated risks to inflation near term. While it judges supply shocks as the main cause of high inflation, it is mindful of second-round effects. It is worried that price pressures, albeit temporary, will contaminate inflation expectations, result in wage hikes that exceed the inflation target and spill over to core inflation. This is especially a concern given that the output gap has closed (and is likely positive) and inflation has been stuck above the 4.0% Banxico implicit tolerance ceiling for five months.
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Brazil: The Hunt for Red October
Brazil: The Week Ahead - The Hunt for Red October
Marcelo Carvalho - Market Economics
Brazil: The Week Ahead | 09 Nov 2012 16:30 |
You may have seen the film. The 1990 movie “The Hunt for Red October” is a thriller adapted from the Tom Clancy novel of the same name. In the story, Red October is the name of the new Soviet submarine that sonars are unable to detect. Sean Connery plays the commanding officer of the boat. Currently in Brazil, bearish forecasters seem to be hunting for a red October on growth data.
Marcelo Carvalho - Market Economics
Brazil: The Week Ahead | 09 Nov 2012 16:30 |
You may have seen the film. The 1990 movie “The Hunt for Red October” is a thriller adapted from the Tom Clancy novel of the same name. In the story, Red October is the name of the new Soviet submarine that sonars are unable to detect. Sean Connery plays the commanding officer of the boat. Currently in Brazil, bearish forecasters seem to be hunting for a red October on growth data.
China: Chinese export growth improved further (W. Yao)
Eco Analysis - Chinese export growth improved further (W. Yao)
China's export growth surprised on the upside again, but imports remained sluggish.
China's export growth rose further to +11.6%yoy in October from +9.9%yoy in September, beating expectations (Cons. +10%; SG +9%) for a second month. There were two more workdays last month than that in October 2011, which contributed to the headline improvement. But, even if excluding this factor, exports still hold up reasonably well. Export growth to the US and the European Union improved to +9%yoy and -8.1%yoy in October from +5.5yoy and -10.7%yoy in the previous month, previously. As in September, emerging Asia outperformed the most, with exports to ASEAN economies rising 44%yoy. However, we remain cautious on the export outlook, amid weak order figures, especially those from the Canton fair (-9%yoy).
China's export growth surprised on the upside again, but imports remained sluggish.
China's export growth rose further to +11.6%yoy in October from +9.9%yoy in September, beating expectations (Cons. +10%; SG +9%) for a second month. There were two more workdays last month than that in October 2011, which contributed to the headline improvement. But, even if excluding this factor, exports still hold up reasonably well. Export growth to the US and the European Union improved to +9%yoy and -8.1%yoy in October from +5.5yoy and -10.7%yoy in the previous month, previously. As in September, emerging Asia outperformed the most, with exports to ASEAN economies rising 44%yoy. However, we remain cautious on the export outlook, amid weak order figures, especially those from the Canton fair (-9%yoy).
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Frankfurt Turns Offices to Homes as Excesses Lift Vacancy
Bloomberg News
Frankfurt Turns Offices to Homes as Excesses Lift Vacancy
By Dalia Fahmy on November 09, 2012
Vijay Vankadari, who has renovated Frankfurt apartment buildings for more than a decade, used a cheap and plentiful resource for his latest residential project in the city: old office buildings that businesses won’t touch.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-08/frankfurt-turns-offices-to-homes-as-excesses-lift-vacancy
Frankfurt Turns Offices to Homes as Excesses Lift Vacancy
By Dalia Fahmy on November 09, 2012
Vijay Vankadari, who has renovated Frankfurt apartment buildings for more than a decade, used a cheap and plentiful resource for his latest residential project in the city: old office buildings that businesses won’t touch.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-08/frankfurt-turns-offices-to-homes-as-excesses-lift-vacancy
Friday, November 9, 2012
China: CPI and PPI (Oct 2012)
China: CPI and PPI (Oct 2012)
Xingdong Chen - Market Economics
Asian Instant Insight | 09 Nov 2012 03:43 |
CPI eased to a 33-month low of 1.7% y/y and PPI deflation improved to -2.8% y/y. We believe both CPI and PPI have bottomed. But through the year end, CPI would stay mild and PPI continue to be negative. However, policymakers have concerns over inflation next year on the back of economic recovery and monetary easing in developed nations. The need and odd of another cut in interest rate is diminishing along with economic rebound in Q4. Nevertheless, we still expect authorities to maintain the accommodative policy stance to protect the green shoots by ensuring adequate market liquidity and enhancing transmission of monetary policy.
Xingdong Chen - Market Economics
Asian Instant Insight | 09 Nov 2012 03:43 |
CPI eased to a 33-month low of 1.7% y/y and PPI deflation improved to -2.8% y/y. We believe both CPI and PPI have bottomed. But through the year end, CPI would stay mild and PPI continue to be negative. However, policymakers have concerns over inflation next year on the back of economic recovery and monetary easing in developed nations. The need and odd of another cut in interest rate is diminishing along with economic rebound in Q4. Nevertheless, we still expect authorities to maintain the accommodative policy stance to protect the green shoots by ensuring adequate market liquidity and enhancing transmission of monetary policy.
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Turkey: Industrial production increased sharply in September
Turkey: Industrial production increased sharply in September
At 6.2% y/y, September's industrial production index beat the market consensus (2%) and our more optimistic forecast (3.4%). On a seasonally adjusted basis, industrial production increased by 3.9% m/m, following a 2% m/m decline in August, which waspartly due to the Ramadan effect. As a result, in Q3, industrial production increased by 0.9% q/q. Should IP remain flat till the year end, this would translate into a 1.9% q/q increase in Q4.
At 6.2% y/y, September's industrial production index beat the market consensus (2%) and our more optimistic forecast (3.4%). On a seasonally adjusted basis, industrial production increased by 3.9% m/m, following a 2% m/m decline in August, which waspartly due to the Ramadan effect. As a result, in Q3, industrial production increased by 0.9% q/q. Should IP remain flat till the year end, this would translate into a 1.9% q/q increase in Q4.
Chile: CPI inflation surprised to the upside in October lifted by food prices
Chile: CPI inflation surprised to the upside in October lifted by food prices
Florencia Vazquez - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 08 Nov 2012 21:14 |
Consumer prices were reported to have advanced 0.6% m/m in October, a result that stood visibly ahead of both our forecast and the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey (both: 0.3% m/m). The annual inflation rate accelerated to 2.9% last month, but remained slightly below the 3% official target.
Florencia Vazquez - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 08 Nov 2012 21:14 |
Consumer prices were reported to have advanced 0.6% m/m in October, a result that stood visibly ahead of both our forecast and the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey (both: 0.3% m/m). The annual inflation rate accelerated to 2.9% last month, but remained slightly below the 3% official target.
Mexico: Inflation Downtrend Has Begun
Mexico: Inflation Downtrend Has Begun
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 08 Nov 2012 15:52 |
Annual inflation fell from 4.77% in September to 4.60% in October (BNP Paribas: 4.64%). This is supportive of our view that inflation peaked in September and will fall towards our end-year 2012 projection of 4.04% in Q4 due to a more favourable base effect as well as lower food inflation.
Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 08 Nov 2012 15:52 |
Annual inflation fell from 4.77% in September to 4.60% in October (BNP Paribas: 4.64%). This is supportive of our view that inflation peaked in September and will fall towards our end-year 2012 projection of 4.04% in Q4 due to a more favourable base effect as well as lower food inflation.
Australia: Labour Market (Oct 2012)
Australia: Labour Market (Oct 2012)
Dominic Bryant - Market Economics
Asian Instant Insight | 08 Nov 2012 02:54 |
Employment surprised to the upside somewhat in October, for a second consecutive month. Full-time employment drove the increase. However, other indicators of labour market health are weak at present. In particular, the trend in hours worked is soft. Typically this is consistent with significant domestic demand weakness, which we expect to show through in the Q3 and Q4 GDP numbers. Therefore, we continue to expect a 25bp RBA rate cut in December.
Dominic Bryant - Market Economics
Asian Instant Insight | 08 Nov 2012 02:54 |
Employment surprised to the upside somewhat in October, for a second consecutive month. Full-time employment drove the increase. However, other indicators of labour market health are weak at present. In particular, the trend in hours worked is soft. Typically this is consistent with significant domestic demand weakness, which we expect to show through in the Q3 and Q4 GDP numbers. Therefore, we continue to expect a 25bp RBA rate cut in December.
Starwood Capital joins rivals in Europe's property loans market
Starwood Capital joins rivals in Europe's property loans market
By: Chiara Albanese
07 Nov 2012
US real estate firm Starwood Capital Group has launched Starwood European Finance Company, a European real estate finance platform aiming at taking advantage of financing opportunities arising from the retrenching in bank lending in this space.
http://www.investmenteurope.net/investment-europe/news/2223167/starwood-capital-joins-rivals-in-europes-property-loans-market
By: Chiara Albanese
07 Nov 2012
US real estate firm Starwood Capital Group has launched Starwood European Finance Company, a European real estate finance platform aiming at taking advantage of financing opportunities arising from the retrenching in bank lending in this space.
http://www.investmenteurope.net/investment-europe/news/2223167/starwood-capital-joins-rivals-in-europes-property-loans-market
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)