2013 Outlook
Commodities Review
European Gas and LNG
Thierry Bros
Key points
■ On 8 October, the second 27.5 bcm/y Nord Stream line was launched, bringing the facility’s total capacity to 55 bcm/y (the first line was opened in November 2011). The pipeline is designed to bring greater stability to the supply of Russian gas to Europe by reducing dependence on transit countries, with which Russia has repeatedly faced serious issues over gas prices.
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
2013 Outlook Commodities Review: US Natural Gas
2013 Outlook
Commodities Review
US Natural Gas
Laurent Key
Key points
■ The US natural gas forward curve is, in our opinion, well priced for the start of the winter but too expensive from March to the rest of 2013. Cal 13 price forecast is $3.52/MMbtu, 40 cents below the current curve.
Commodities Review
US Natural Gas
Laurent Key
Key points
■ The US natural gas forward curve is, in our opinion, well priced for the start of the winter but too expensive from March to the rest of 2013. Cal 13 price forecast is $3.52/MMbtu, 40 cents below the current curve.
2013 Outlook Commodities Review: Oil
2013 Outlook
Commodities Review
Oil
Michael Wittner
Key points
■ The outlook for oil market fundamentals is neutral through 2013. With another year of sluggish economic growth expected, global demand growth is forecast at 0.8 Mb/d next year, driven by emerging markets east of Suez.
Commodities Review
Oil
Michael Wittner
Key points
■ The outlook for oil market fundamentals is neutral through 2013. With another year of sluggish economic growth expected, global demand growth is forecast at 0.8 Mb/d next year, driven by emerging markets east of Suez.
2013 Outlook Commodities Review: Copper
2013 Outlook
Commodities Review
Copper
Robin Bhar
Key points
■ At current levels, around $7,600/t, we anticipate limited downside risk as fundamentally the copper market remains tight; there is scope for prices to rise given a belief that the Chinese economy has bottomed and a rebound is expected over the coming months.
Commodities Review
Copper
Robin Bhar
Key points
■ At current levels, around $7,600/t, we anticipate limited downside risk as fundamentally the copper market remains tight; there is scope for prices to rise given a belief that the Chinese economy has bottomed and a rebound is expected over the coming months.
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Blackstone buys troubled shopping centre after years in limbo
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/blackstone-buys-troubled-mall/story-fn9656lz-1226519908536
Blackstone buys troubled shopping centre after years in limbo
PRIVATE equity giant Blackstone has waded deeper into Australian real estate, paying $341 million for the Top Ryde City shopping centre in Sydney, a source has confirmed.
Blackstone buys troubled shopping centre after years in limbo
PRIVATE equity giant Blackstone has waded deeper into Australian real estate, paying $341 million for the Top Ryde City shopping centre in Sydney, a source has confirmed.
Brazil: Consensus revised down growth for next year
Florencia Vazquez, Marcelo Carvalho, Nader Nazmi, Gustavo Arruda - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 20 Nov 2012 06:00 |
Brazil: Consensus revised down growth for next year.
BRAZIL
Local markets will be closed today due to a local holiday.
Consensus expects less growth ahead. Consensus has revised down 2012 growth to 1.52% from 1.54% in the prior week. For 2013, consensus anticipates growth below 4.0% next year (at 3.96% from 4.0%). We continue to believe that Brazil’s economy will continue to accelerate in the coming quarters, and partial data for October reinforce our view. We expect growth above 5.0% next year, thanks to monetary, fiscal and credit measures in place to spur growth.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 20 Nov 2012 06:00 |
Brazil: Consensus revised down growth for next year.
BRAZIL
Local markets will be closed today due to a local holiday.
Consensus expects less growth ahead. Consensus has revised down 2012 growth to 1.52% from 1.54% in the prior week. For 2013, consensus anticipates growth below 4.0% next year (at 3.96% from 4.0%). We continue to believe that Brazil’s economy will continue to accelerate in the coming quarters, and partial data for October reinforce our view. We expect growth above 5.0% next year, thanks to monetary, fiscal and credit measures in place to spur growth.
Monday, November 19, 2012
Chile: More moderate growth in Q3, but still above potential
Chile: More moderate growth in Q3, but still above potential
Florencia Vazquez - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 19 Nov 2012 16:33 |
Real GDP in Chile was reported to have advanced 5.7% y/y in Q3 2012. The y/y pace of advance stood slightly ahead of the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey and a bit below our forecast (5.4% and 6.2%, respectively). In sequential terms, the economy expanded at a 5.7% q/q (saar) pace, having moderated from Q2’s unsustainable 8.3% pace (revised up from a previous 7%), but still slightly above potential (Chart 1).
Florencia Vazquez - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 19 Nov 2012 16:33 |
Real GDP in Chile was reported to have advanced 5.7% y/y in Q3 2012. The y/y pace of advance stood slightly ahead of the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey and a bit below our forecast (5.4% and 6.2%, respectively). In sequential terms, the economy expanded at a 5.7% q/q (saar) pace, having moderated from Q2’s unsustainable 8.3% pace (revised up from a previous 7%), but still slightly above potential (Chart 1).
Worldwide Plaza may be off the block
Worldwide Plaza may be off the block
With bids lagging the $1.5 billion target price, the owners of the 59-story West Side office tower are said to be thinking about holding off and settling for a re-fi now.
BY DANIEL GEIGER
NOVEMBER 19, 2012 1:37 P.M.
The owners of Worldwide Plaza have begun considering a refinancing of their 1.9 million square foot tower, rather than the sale they had been pursuing, several sources say.
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20121119/REAL_ESTATE/121119923
With bids lagging the $1.5 billion target price, the owners of the 59-story West Side office tower are said to be thinking about holding off and settling for a re-fi now.
BY DANIEL GEIGER
NOVEMBER 19, 2012 1:37 P.M.
The owners of Worldwide Plaza have begun considering a refinancing of their 1.9 million square foot tower, rather than the sale they had been pursuing, several sources say.
http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20121119/REAL_ESTATE/121119923
Sunday, November 18, 2012
Global Economic Outlook - Anchor themes - Exiting Uncertainty
November 19, 2012
http://www.sgresearch.com
The muddle-through policy setting has been an additional headwind to debt deleveraging, with the resulting uncertainty delaying consumption, investment and hiring decisions.
Why Can’t We Be Friends?
Why Can’t We Be Friends?
Julia Coronado - Market Economics
US Daily Spotlight | 19 Nov 2012 00:15 |
Last week ended on a hopeful note as Democratic and Republican Congressional leaders met at the White House with President Obama and emerged from their meeting promising they would reach a fiscal compromise “before Christmas”. There is still much political wood to be chopped to reach agreement, and it is certain to be a bumpy road. Nevertheless, we feel reasonably confident that the parameters of a deal are well within sight, and the political incentives on both sides are for a smooth outcome.
Julia Coronado - Market Economics
US Daily Spotlight | 19 Nov 2012 00:15 |
Last week ended on a hopeful note as Democratic and Republican Congressional leaders met at the White House with President Obama and emerged from their meeting promising they would reach a fiscal compromise “before Christmas”. There is still much political wood to be chopped to reach agreement, and it is certain to be a bumpy road. Nevertheless, we feel reasonably confident that the parameters of a deal are well within sight, and the political incentives on both sides are for a smooth outcome.
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