Colombia Weekly
Rodrigo Fuenmayor, William Pereira, Economics/FX/Interest Rate Teams - FX / Rates
Colombia Weekly | 04 Dec 2012 12:21 |
Summary
Strengthening labour market. The unemployment rate (urban areas) declined to 10.2% in October from 10.7% in the month before. This was better than the consensus expectation of 10.5%. The national unemployment rate was 8.9%. The strengthening of the labour market and continued availability of credit, albeit at a reduced pace, bode well for domestic consumption and demand.
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
Colombia: Record-low popularity for President Santos
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 04 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Colombia: Record-low popularity for President Santos
COLOMBIA
Colombian President Santos’ support falls sharply. President Santos’s approval rating fell 15pp in one month to a record low of 45% in November. This was likely driven by a court ruling in favour of Nicaragua and against Colombia in a dispute over territorial waters in the Caribbean Sea. Last month, the International Court of Justice in the Hague ordered Colombia to give sovereignty of some territorial waters to Nicaragua. This order reduces Colombia's maritime borders in the Caribbean Sea and has prompted Colombia to withdraw from the International Court of Justice.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 04 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Colombia: Record-low popularity for President Santos
COLOMBIA
Colombian President Santos’ support falls sharply. President Santos’s approval rating fell 15pp in one month to a record low of 45% in November. This was likely driven by a court ruling in favour of Nicaragua and against Colombia in a dispute over territorial waters in the Caribbean Sea. Last month, the International Court of Justice in the Hague ordered Colombia to give sovereignty of some territorial waters to Nicaragua. This order reduces Colombia's maritime borders in the Caribbean Sea and has prompted Colombia to withdraw from the International Court of Justice.
Mexico: IMEF survey results reflect continued upbeat business sentiment
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 04 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Mexico: IMEF survey results reflect continued upbeat business sentiment
MEXICO
PMIs continue well inside the expansion zone. At 53.8 each, the IMEF manufacturing and non-manufacturing indicators both remained in the expansion territory in November. Four of the five IMEF manufacturing components (new orders, production, employment and inventory) were decidedly in the expansion territory. The inventory segment was the only sub-50 component (47.1). The new orders and production components of the non-manufacturing IMEF showed continued strength, with readings of 57.6 and 56.7, respectively.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 04 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Mexico: IMEF survey results reflect continued upbeat business sentiment
MEXICO
PMIs continue well inside the expansion zone. At 53.8 each, the IMEF manufacturing and non-manufacturing indicators both remained in the expansion territory in November. Four of the five IMEF manufacturing components (new orders, production, employment and inventory) were decidedly in the expansion territory. The inventory segment was the only sub-50 component (47.1). The new orders and production components of the non-manufacturing IMEF showed continued strength, with readings of 57.6 and 56.7, respectively.
Brazil: Industrial production will rebound in October
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 04 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Brazil: Industrial production will rebound in October
BRAZIL
Today, industrial production (IP) will rebound, according to coincident data, including energy consumption, car output, heavy vehicle traffic on toll roads and paperboard sales. A month earlier, an unusually few number of working days led to a soft IP number in seasonally adjusted terms.
Daily Latam Spotlight | 04 Dec 2012 06:00 |
Brazil: Industrial production will rebound in October
BRAZIL
Today, industrial production (IP) will rebound, according to coincident data, including energy consumption, car output, heavy vehicle traffic on toll roads and paperboard sales. A month earlier, an unusually few number of working days led to a soft IP number in seasonally adjusted terms.
Monday, December 3, 2012
Turkey: Food-Driven Disinflation
Turkey: Food-Driven Disinflation
At 0.38% m/m, November's CPI inflation was significantly lower than market consensus and our expectation (0.9%), mostly due to a 0.12% m/m decline in food prices. Contrary to the global food price increases during the first half of the year, domestic food prices followed a subdued trend this year, resulting in a food inflation of 2.3% from January to November. The average January-November food inflation during 2007-2011 was 10%. Accordingly, annual CPI inflation declined to 6.4% in November from 7.8% in October.
At 0.38% m/m, November's CPI inflation was significantly lower than market consensus and our expectation (0.9%), mostly due to a 0.12% m/m decline in food prices. Contrary to the global food price increases during the first half of the year, domestic food prices followed a subdued trend this year, resulting in a food inflation of 2.3% from January to November. The average January-November food inflation during 2007-2011 was 10%. Accordingly, annual CPI inflation declined to 6.4% in November from 7.8% in October.
Ukraine: the government resignation - and substantial reshuffle ahead
Ukraine: the government resignation - and substantial reshuffle ahead
In Ukraine, the president accepted the resignation of PM Azarov, which means resignation of his cabinet. This event was very expected and following to the parliamentary elections. However, now we expect quite substantial reshuffle of the cabinet and new figures to be recruited to the government. First of all, it was widely announced that the ministers who were elected to the Rada are planning to work there. This implicitly means that politically charismatic ministers such as Vice PM Sergei Tigipko, the minister of justice Alexander Lavrinovich, minister of economy Petr Poroshenko, minister of emergency Victor Baloga, minister of transportation Boris Kolesnikov, minister of regions Anatoly Blyznyuk and minister of sport Dmitry Tabachnik are likely to become a new parlament deputies.
In Ukraine, the president accepted the resignation of PM Azarov, which means resignation of his cabinet. This event was very expected and following to the parliamentary elections. However, now we expect quite substantial reshuffle of the cabinet and new figures to be recruited to the government. First of all, it was widely announced that the ministers who were elected to the Rada are planning to work there. This implicitly means that politically charismatic ministers such as Vice PM Sergei Tigipko, the minister of justice Alexander Lavrinovich, minister of economy Petr Poroshenko, minister of emergency Victor Baloga, minister of transportation Boris Kolesnikov, minister of regions Anatoly Blyznyuk and minister of sport Dmitry Tabachnik are likely to become a new parlament deputies.
Peru: The central bank to remain on hold again this week
Peru: The central bank to remain on hold again this week
PERU
The long pause to continue this week. The central bank (BCRP) has kept the policy rate unchanged for 18 consecutive months. We expect this to continue this week and into next year.
PERU
The long pause to continue this week. The central bank (BCRP) has kept the policy rate unchanged for 18 consecutive months. We expect this to continue this week and into next year.
Chile: Busy week ahead. Strong activity and modest deflation expected
Chile: Busy week ahead. Strong activity and modest deflation expected.
CHILE
A busy week ahead; strong activity (October) and modest deflation (November) expected. The calendar starts on Wednesday with the release of the October economic activity report. The forecast shows expectations for a strong reading based on available evidence on different economic sectors. Thus, we expect the monthly real GDP proxy to have advanced 6.2% y/y in October. We also look for a modest expansion in sequential terms. The median estimate from the Bloomberg survey, meanwhile, looks for a flat monthly reading and a slightly lower 6.0% y/y gain.
CHILE
A busy week ahead; strong activity (October) and modest deflation (November) expected. The calendar starts on Wednesday with the release of the October economic activity report. The forecast shows expectations for a strong reading based on available evidence on different economic sectors. Thus, we expect the monthly real GDP proxy to have advanced 6.2% y/y in October. We also look for a modest expansion in sequential terms. The median estimate from the Bloomberg survey, meanwhile, looks for a flat monthly reading and a slightly lower 6.0% y/y gain.
Asia Insights: China: The PMI continued to improve in November
Fixed Income | Asia Ex-Japan
NOMURA
02 December 2012
Asia Insights: China: The PMI continued to improve in November
·China’s official PMI rose further to 50.6 in November from 50.2 in October, lower than the consensus forecast of 50.8.
·Both the new orders and the production sub-indices continued to improve.
·This lends further support to our view of a strong economic rebound in Q4.
NOMURA
02 December 2012
Asia Insights: China: The PMI continued to improve in November
·China’s official PMI rose further to 50.6 in November from 50.2 in October, lower than the consensus forecast of 50.8.
·Both the new orders and the production sub-indices continued to improve.
·This lends further support to our view of a strong economic rebound in Q4.
Sunday, December 2, 2012
Fiscal Cliff Takeaways From the Sunday News Shows
Mohamed A. El-Erian.CEO and co-CIO, PIMCO
Fiscal Cliff Takeaways From the Sunday News Shows
Posted: 12/02/2012 2:56 pm
Television networks devoted much of their Sunday news shows to the fiscal cliff -- and rightly so -- reflecting the urgency and importance of the topic.
Fiscal Cliff Takeaways From the Sunday News Shows
Posted: 12/02/2012 2:56 pm
Television networks devoted much of their Sunday news shows to the fiscal cliff -- and rightly so -- reflecting the urgency and importance of the topic.
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