Eco Analysis - More evidence of China in early-cycle expansion

Eco Analysis - More evidence of China in early-cycle expansion

■ Strong fiscal revenue growth

China's fiscal revenue growth rebounded further to 21.9%yoy in November from 13.7%yoy in October, the fastest pace since August 2011. More importantly, tax revenues grew 21.1%yoy, compared with 12.5%yoy in the previous month and 9%yoy during the first ten months. Value-added tax, which contributes one-quarter of total tax revenues, recovered quite strongly and grew 16.2%yoy in November (vs. 9.2%yoy in October), consistent with the improving trend in industrial and retail sales. The strength of fiscal revenue is another piece of evidence that the Chinese economy is recovering.

Chile: The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week

Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 10 Dec 2012 06:00 |

Chile: The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week.

CHILE

The central bank is expected to remain on hold this week. BCCh will have its monthly monetary policy meeting on Thursday. We expect no changes, in line with trends throughout most of the year. The consensus agrees with this view.

Turkey: GDP Surprises on the Downside

Turkey: GDP Surprises on the Downside

At 1.6% y/y, Q3 GDP growth was weaker than the expectations (2.6% y/y) and our forecast (3.2% y/y). On a seasonally adjusted basis GDP grew by 0.2% q/q in Q3, broadly in line with our expectation. The downward surprise in the headline growth number was mostly on the back of weaker-than-expected private investment and exports. The contribution of private sector investment was -2.2pp to growth. The expansion in exports slowed down to 11.9% y/y in Q3 from 20.9% y/y in Q2, still the contribution of foreign demand was 3.4pp. Consumption of households subtracted 0.4pp from growth whereas public sector spending contributed 0.8pp to growth. At the same time, Q1 GDP growth was revised to 3.4% from 3.3%, and Q2 GDP growth to 3% from 2.9%.

Colombia Weekly

Colombia Weekly

Economics/FX/Interest Rate Teams,Rodrigo Fuenmayor,William Pereira - FX/Rates
Colombia Weekly | 10 Dec 2012 16:12 |

Summary

The minutes show the BanRep’s resolve to remain on hold for a while.

The minutes of November’s meeting (when the bank cut its policy rate by 25bp) appear very similar to the minutes of the October meeting (when the board remained on hold). Both sets of minutes are broadly neutral, in our view.

Eco Analysis - Disappointing data across Asia: CH trade, AU home loans, JP in recession (K. Baader, W. Yao, K. Katahira)

Eco Analysis - Disappointing data across Asia: CH trade, AU home loans, JP in recession (K. Baader, W. Yao, K. Katahira)

■ Disappointing China's trade data reflected structural weakness in both external and domestic demand.

Contrary to the activity data released over the weekend, China's trade growth in November disappointed, with exports growing 2.9%yoy (Cons. 9%, SG 7%, Previous 11.9%) and imports flat yoy (Cons. 2%, SG 0%, Previous 2.4%). As a result of weak exports, the trade surplus also came in smaller than expected at USD19.6bn (Cons. & SG, USD26.8bn), down from USD32bn in October.

Asia Insights: China: Exports slowed but domestic demand remains stron

Fixed Income | Asia Ex-Japan
10 December 2012

Asia Insights: China: Exports slowed but domestic demand remains strong

·China’s export growth slowed more than expected in November to 2.9% y-o-y from 11.6% in October.

·Import growth slowed to 0.0% y-o-y from 2.4%, but import growth for domestic consumption picked up.

·We expect the growth recovery to remain on track, as it is mainly driven by domestic demand.

First Insights: China: Trade slows but the growth recovery remains on track

First Insights: China: Trade slows but the growth recovery remains on track

Export growth slowed to 2.9% y-o-y in November from 11.6% in October (Consensus 9%, Nomura 7%), while import growth slowed to 0% from 2.4% (Consensus 2.0%, Nomura 0%).

Turkey: Still in a sweet spot

Commerzbank Corporates & Markets
Emerging Markets
https://research.commerzbank.com

Turkey: Still in a sweet spot

Following our October visit, we wrote that the Turkish economy had entered a sweet spot – that slower growth and low commodity prices were having a materially positive impact on Turkey’s current account and inflation imbalances. Last month, current account and inflation data improved further. Meanwhile, Fitch upgraded Turkey to investment grade – the only such upgrade in the region since Lehman. Moody’s holds a positive outlook. Understandably, foreign capital is piling in.

Analyst:
Tatha Ghose

Eco Analysis - The Chinese economy is undoubtedly heating up (W. Yao)

Eco Analysis - The Chinese economy is undoubtedly heating up (W. Yao)

■ Inflation advanced but less than expected

China's consumer price inflation came in slightly below expectations at 2.0%yoy in November (Cons. & SG 2.1%), up from 1.7%yoy in October. The 0.4ppt increase was a result of a 1.2pp increase in food inflation to 3.0%yoy. Within the non-food components, housing inflation moved up marginally to 2.6%yoy from 2.5%yoy, while other categories unexpectedly softened to 1.2%yoy from 1.4%yoy, according to our calculation.

Eco Analysis - US Employment Report: Surprisingly Good (B. Jones)

Eco Analysis - US Employment Report: Surprisingly Good (B. Jones)

■ Nonfarm job growth eclipsed all projections for a second straight month in November

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that nonfarm payrolls expanded by 146K in November, following a revised 138K rise in October (was 171K) and 132K increase in September (was 148K). Last month's print exceeded both our (122K) and the median Street (85K) expectations. Indeed, for the second month in a row, the front-month job gain eclipsed all published economist projections.