US: Open-mouth Operations at Work

US: Open-mouth Operations at Work

Yelena Shulyatyeva and Bricklin Dwyer

Chairman Bernanke stuck very close to the party line during his conversation today at the University of Michigan, and did not alter or deviate from that message. When given the chance to push back on the market's response to the December FOMC minutes, he didn't. Unlike some of the FOMC participants we heard from yesterday, Chairman Bernanke did not provide any guidance on the timing of asset purchases. In our view, he is likely in the camp of FOMC members who “emphasized the need for considerable policy accommodation but did not state a specific time frame or total for purchases.” The Chairman said that QE has been effective in the past and that the latest round looks like it is working, but cautioned that it is too early to make an assessment. He still sees the labour market as weak, the economy as fragile and the cost of letting unemployment persist at current levels enormous. He reiterated two main tools are at the Committee's disposal: forward guidance, otherwise known as “open-mouth operations,” and QE. Going forward, the FOMC will need to consider how effective these policies are and evaluate their costs and benefits.

UK: House Hunting

UK: House Hunting

David Tinsley

One of the interesting and potentially useful developments in the UK recently has been some signs that the housing market might be firming up. The latest indicators in this regard will bear watching carefully over the first few months of this year.

US Economy to Grow 2.5% This Year: Fed's Evans

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100375995

US Economy to Grow 2.5% This Year: Fed's Evans
Published: Monday, 14 Jan 2013 | 2:14 AM ET

The U.S. economy is expected to grow by 2.5 percent in 2013, improving to 3.5 percent growth in 2014, top Fed official Charles Evans said on Monday.

What Are Gold Bugs Afraid Of?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100375832

What Are Gold Bugs Afraid Of?
Published: Sunday, 13 Jan 2013 | 10:37 PM ET
By: Michael Ivanovitch | President, MSI Global

The price of an ounce of fine gold entered this Millennium at $271.1, one of the lowest gold prices in the previous 20 years. Since then, the price of gold has soared more than five-fold. Over the same period, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 16.5 percent. Corrected for inflation, gold returned a whopping 480 percent, while real returns on major stock market indices in the U.S. and in the euro area were negative - in double digits.

Oil Curbed by 'Fountain' of North American Supply: Survey

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100375837

Oil Curbed by 'Fountain' of North American Supply: Survey

Published: Sunday, 13 Jan 2013 | 10:14 PM ET
By: Sri Jegarajah
Market Reporter, CNBC Asia Pacific

Oil prices may rise this week, boosted by expectations of further weakness in the U.S. dollar against its European counterpart and on indications global growth is improving, according to CNBC's latest survey of oil market sentiment, though gains may be limited by increased supply from North America.

Turkey: The narrowing in the current account deficit has neared to an end

Turkey: The narrowing in the current account deficit has neared to an end

At USD 4.5bn, November's current account deficit was lower than the market consensus and our forecast (USD 4.8bn). Consequently, 12-month cumulative current account deficit declined to USD 51.9bn, from USD 52.8bn in October. Non-energy current account balance on a 12-month cumulative basis turned into a surplus of USD 0.4bn, from a deficit of USD 0.8bn in October. 12-month cumulative net gold exports increased to USD 5.6bn, from USD 5.2bn in October, and continued to contribute to the narrowing in the current account deficit.

Chile: The government will announce measures to make exports more competitive.

11 January 2013
Florencia Vazquez,Gustavo Arruda,Marcelo Carvalho,Nader Nazmi - Market Economics
Daily Latam Spotlight | 11 Jan 2013 06:00 |

Chile: The government will announce measures to make exports more competitive.

CHILE

Government will announce measures to make exports more competitive. Finance Minister Felipe Larrain affirmed that next week the government will unveil competitive measures. According to Larrain, the upcoming measures are not necessarily on the exchange rate.

Lowest vacancy rate on the German office market in 10 years

Lowest vacancy rate on the German office market in 10 years
Andreas Trumpp

Overall take-up above average thanks to strong fourth quarter

January 10, 2013, Munich – In Q4 2012, office tenants were once again ready to do business and hit the market with a year-end spurt generating take-up of around 2.77 million m² in six German office markets: Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt am Main, Hamburg, Munich and Stuttgart. Andreas Trumpp, Head of Research at Colliers International, Germany, says, “Although we experienced a decline of around 9 percent from 2011, it was to be expected considering the above-average number of major deals we recorded that year. At the end of the day, we even managed to somewhat exceed our expectations for 2012.” Results for the last office leasing year were up by around 126,000 m² from the ten-year average of 2.64 million m². In addition, a considerable portion of the drop in sales can be attributed to the fact that owner-occupier take-up decreased by half.

http://www.colliers.com/en-gb/frankfurt/insights/market-news/20130109_german-office-market_q42012

Exceptional 4Q pushes Global Commercial Real Estate Investment Volumes to $436B in 2012

Exceptional 4Q pushes Global Commercial Real Estate Investment Volumes to $436B in 2012

Jones Lang LaSalle preliminary numbers show U.S. fiscal cliff tax concerns and pent-up demand lifted 4Q volumes to end the year ahead of 2011

● ​Preliminary global volumes beat forecasts to end 2012 at $436 billion, a slight increase over 2011’s $435 billion and a 36 percent increase over 2010.

Brazil: Inflation finishes 2012 above target

Brazil: Inflation finishes 2012 above target

Gustavo Arruda - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 10 Jan 2013 14:34 |

IPCA inflation ended 2012 at 5.84%, and we see more upward pressure going forward. The annual reading was above the 4.5% official target centre, although still below the target tolerance ceiling of 6.5%. In the annual comparison, inflation will continue to increase in the coming months, in our view. We fear it may breach the inflation target ceiling of 6.5% already during the first half of the year.