US: Markets Through the Looking Glass
Julia Coronado - Market Economics
US Daily Spotlight | 31 Jan 2013 01:40 |
Financial markets continued their increasingly bizarre, bullish run Wednesday, with a teensy equity selloff and little change in Treasury yields, despite a surprise negative print on Q4 GDP growth. While a number of volatile drivers of Q4 GDP weakness should be smoothed through, one truly needs to be peering through the looking glass to extract a positive spin from such a negative surprise. The FOMC also looked through the Q4 economic weakness, although the Committee drew the conclusion that not enough has changed in the economic outlook for them to alter their ongoing expansion of monetary policy, and they maintained their USD 85bn pace of securities purchases. It appears that a recent expansion in leverage on the part of hedge funds has contributed to the bull run in markets that has been impervious to weaker-than-expected economic data, and, at some point, markets could become responsive once again to economic data.
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Bechtel Completes Construction Of Chemical Weapons Demilitarization Facility
BECHTEL COMPLETES CONSTRUCTION OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS DEMILITARIZATION FACILITY
January 29, 2013
Colorado Plant is First of Its Kind in the United States
PUEBLO, COLORADO, January 29, 2013 — Bechtel announced today the Bechtel Pueblo Team (BPT) has completed construction of the Pueblo Chemical Agent-Destruction Pilot Plant (PCAPP). The facility will eventually destroy 2,611 tons of mustard agent-filled munitions currently being stored at the U.S. Army Pueblo Chemical Depot in Colorado.
January 29, 2013
Colorado Plant is First of Its Kind in the United States
PUEBLO, COLORADO, January 29, 2013 — Bechtel announced today the Bechtel Pueblo Team (BPT) has completed construction of the Pueblo Chemical Agent-Destruction Pilot Plant (PCAPP). The facility will eventually destroy 2,611 tons of mustard agent-filled munitions currently being stored at the U.S. Army Pueblo Chemical Depot in Colorado.
Eco Analysis - FOMC stays the course (A. Markowska)
Eco Analysis - FOMC stays the course (A. Markowska)
Summary: The FOMC statement was very much inline with expectations. Asset purchases will continue at $85bn per month until the outlook for the labor market improves substantially, or until the perceived costs start to outweigh the benefits. The FOMC did not offer any new color on when that may be (and none was expected). The Fed's characterization of Q4 GDP numbers was a temporary pause driven by transitory factors. The statement notes some improvement in private sector demand, and sees the current policy stance as consistent with the recovery proceeding at a moderate pace. After the annual rotation of voting members, there was only one dissent vs. the possibility of two, perhaps suggesting a slightly less hawkish bias than expected. We will look to FOMC minutes on February 20th for more color on the timeframe for asset purchases.
Summary: The FOMC statement was very much inline with expectations. Asset purchases will continue at $85bn per month until the outlook for the labor market improves substantially, or until the perceived costs start to outweigh the benefits. The FOMC did not offer any new color on when that may be (and none was expected). The Fed's characterization of Q4 GDP numbers was a temporary pause driven by transitory factors. The statement notes some improvement in private sector demand, and sees the current policy stance as consistent with the recovery proceeding at a moderate pace. After the annual rotation of voting members, there was only one dissent vs. the possibility of two, perhaps suggesting a slightly less hawkish bias than expected. We will look to FOMC minutes on February 20th for more color on the timeframe for asset purchases.
Chile: Mixed supply- and demand-side activity data in December
Chile: Mixed supply- and demand-side activity data in December
Florencia Vazquez - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 30 Jan 2013 14:04 |
Manufacturing activity was reported to have contracted 2.5% y/y in December, a result that disappointed both our forecast and the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey (0.8% and 1.0% y/y, respectively). Despite weak performance in recent months, manufacturing output managed to advance 2.4% last year.
Florencia Vazquez - Market Economics
Latam Macro Snapshot | 30 Jan 2013 14:04 |
Manufacturing activity was reported to have contracted 2.5% y/y in December, a result that disappointed both our forecast and the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey (0.8% and 1.0% y/y, respectively). Despite weak performance in recent months, manufacturing output managed to advance 2.4% last year.
Chile – December manufacturing production and real retail sales data are expected to be mixed today.
Chile – December manufacturing production and real retail sales data are expected to be mixed today.
December mixed manufacturing production and real retail sales data will attract attention today. Manufacturing production is expected to have maintained its y/y pace of growth unchanged at 0.8% in December. In sequential (sa) terms, we expect a flat reading. This would put annual manufacturing production growth at 2.2% for all of 2012.
December mixed manufacturing production and real retail sales data will attract attention today. Manufacturing production is expected to have maintained its y/y pace of growth unchanged at 0.8% in December. In sequential (sa) terms, we expect a flat reading. This would put annual manufacturing production growth at 2.2% for all of 2012.
S. Korea: Industrial Production (Dec 2012)
S. Korea: Industrial Production (Dec 2012)
Dominic Bryant - Market Economics
Asian Instant Insight | 30 Jan 2013 03:00 |
South Korean industrial data surprised to the upside in December. Consumer durables production remained a driving force, partly reflecting further strength in autos as it continues to recover from a strike in August. However, business confidence remains below average so the recent strength in production is unlikely to be sustained. Moreover, capital goods production continues to contract and GDP was soft in Q4, so the recent strength in some parts of manufacturing is not widespread. We continue to forecast a 25bp rate cut in February, although recent monthly data have increased the risk of a delay until the March meeting.
Dominic Bryant - Market Economics
Asian Instant Insight | 30 Jan 2013 03:00 |
South Korean industrial data surprised to the upside in December. Consumer durables production remained a driving force, partly reflecting further strength in autos as it continues to recover from a strike in August. However, business confidence remains below average so the recent strength in production is unlikely to be sustained. Moreover, capital goods production continues to contract and GDP was soft in Q4, so the recent strength in some parts of manufacturing is not widespread. We continue to forecast a 25bp rate cut in February, although recent monthly data have increased the risk of a delay until the March meeting.
U.S. High Yield Default Loss Rate Below 1% in 2012
U.S. High Yield Default Loss Rate Below 1% in 2012
For the third consecutive year, the U.S. high yield default rate remained well below average, ending 2012 at 1.9% and up just modestly from 1.5% in 2011. The average recovery rate on the year’s defaults was 50.2% and the median recovery, 38.9%. Both measures slipped from 2011’s more robust 59.4% average and 47.9% median.
For the third consecutive year, the U.S. high yield default rate remained well below average, ending 2012 at 1.9% and up just modestly from 1.5% in 2011. The average recovery rate on the year’s defaults was 50.2% and the median recovery, 38.9%. Both measures slipped from 2011’s more robust 59.4% average and 47.9% median.
Rating Action: Moody's affirms Sabine Pass Liquefaction's upsized $1.5 billion senior secured notes. Outlook remains stable.
Rating Action: Moody's affirms Sabine Pass Liquefaction's upsized $1.5 billion senior secured notes. Outlook remains stable.
Global Credit Research - 29 Jan 2013
Approximately $6 billion of debt affected
New York, January 29, 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service affirmed Sabine Pass Liquefaction's (SPL) Ba3 rating on its upsized $1.5 billion of senior secured notes due 2021. The senior secured note offering was previously sized at $1 billion. Moody's also affirmed SPL's Ba3 on its $3.6 billion first lien bank term loan due 2019 and Sabine Pass LNG's (SPLNG) B1 rating on its $2.1 billion in senior secured notes. The rating outlooks for SPL and SPLNG are stable.
http://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/Sabine-Pass-Liquefaction-LLC-credit-rating-823099178
Global Credit Research - 29 Jan 2013
Approximately $6 billion of debt affected
New York, January 29, 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service affirmed Sabine Pass Liquefaction's (SPL) Ba3 rating on its upsized $1.5 billion of senior secured notes due 2021. The senior secured note offering was previously sized at $1 billion. Moody's also affirmed SPL's Ba3 on its $3.6 billion first lien bank term loan due 2019 and Sabine Pass LNG's (SPLNG) B1 rating on its $2.1 billion in senior secured notes. The rating outlooks for SPL and SPLNG are stable.
http://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/Sabine-Pass-Liquefaction-LLC-credit-rating-823099178
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Peru: No capital controls, but USD purchases by the finance ministry to help stem SOL appreciation.
Peru: No capital controls, but USD purchases by the finance ministry to help stem SOL appreciation.
Central Reserve Bank of Peru President Julio Velarde on Friday said that capital controls are not needed for stemming the pace of SOL appreciation. He said that he has never considered capital controls as an option and that the sol appreciation reflects its strong fundamentals. Finance Minister Luis Miguel Castilla announced government plans to purchase as much as USD 4.0bn this year to help the central bank control the pace of SOL appreciation. According to Minister Castilla, proceeds from USD purchases will be used to service and prepay external debt, as well as increase savings in the country’s Fiscal Stabilization Fund (FEF).
Central Reserve Bank of Peru President Julio Velarde on Friday said that capital controls are not needed for stemming the pace of SOL appreciation. He said that he has never considered capital controls as an option and that the sol appreciation reflects its strong fundamentals. Finance Minister Luis Miguel Castilla announced government plans to purchase as much as USD 4.0bn this year to help the central bank control the pace of SOL appreciation. According to Minister Castilla, proceeds from USD purchases will be used to service and prepay external debt, as well as increase savings in the country’s Fiscal Stabilization Fund (FEF).
Chile: German businessmen would like to increase investments in Chile.
Chile: German businessmen would like to increase investments in Chile.
German businessmen would like to increase investments in Chile. Following a bilateral meeting with President Piñera at the time of the summit in Santiago last weekend, German Chancellor Merkel praised Chile’s robust economic performance and expressed satisfaction for growing German investments in the country. Mrs Merkel also offered the Chilean president her country’s cooperation in terms of developing renewable energy resources, given Chile’s structural energy deficit.
German businessmen would like to increase investments in Chile. Following a bilateral meeting with President Piñera at the time of the summit in Santiago last weekend, German Chancellor Merkel praised Chile’s robust economic performance and expressed satisfaction for growing German investments in the country. Mrs Merkel also offered the Chilean president her country’s cooperation in terms of developing renewable energy resources, given Chile’s structural energy deficit.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)