Is the Trend Our Friend?
Julia Coronado - Market Economics
US Daily Spotlight | 04 Feb 2013 00:20 |
Last week’s US data provided some big headline surprises, but, on balance, provided some key signals on the state of the US recovery. While Q4 GDP surprised sharply to the downside with a small decline, December construction data on Friday already suggested a small upward revision to a flat reading. Smoothing through the Q3 and Q4 offsetting surprises, the message seems to be the underlying run rate of the economy through 2012 was about 1.5%, somewhat below our prior estimate closer to 2.0%. While January payrolls were close to expectations, benchmark revisions going back to March 2011 suggest a higher trend pace of hiring. Nonfarm payrolls averaged 181k in 2012 and 175k in 2011. This more robust estimate of hiring coupled with a gradual, steady decline in the unemployment rate suggests trend growth in the US may be slower than most current estimates.
Sunday, February 3, 2013
Friday, February 1, 2013
Chile Sees 2013 Copper Production Boost Contributing to Global Surplus
Chile Sees 2013 Copper Production Boost Contributing to Global Surplus
Friday February 1, 2013, 4:00am PST
By Ragnhild Kjetland - Exclusive to Copper Investing News
Even as copper producers are halting or delaying large new projects, Chile — the world’s largest source of copper — is expecting record output to push global supply above demand for the first time since 2009, potentially depressing copper prices toward the end of the year.
http://copperinvestingnews.com/13768-chile-copper-production-boost-2013-contributing-global-surplus-bhp-anto-price.html
Friday February 1, 2013, 4:00am PST
By Ragnhild Kjetland - Exclusive to Copper Investing News
Even as copper producers are halting or delaying large new projects, Chile — the world’s largest source of copper — is expecting record output to push global supply above demand for the first time since 2009, potentially depressing copper prices toward the end of the year.
http://copperinvestingnews.com/13768-chile-copper-production-boost-2013-contributing-global-surplus-bhp-anto-price.html
Thursday, January 31, 2013
Market Trend: New York City's Office Vacancy Decreases to 7.4%
Market Trend: New York City's Office Vacancy Decreases to 7.4%
Net Absorption Positive 990,481 SF in the Quarter
By Justin Sumner
January 31, 2013
The New York City Office market ended the fourth quarter 2012 with a vacancy rate of 7.4%.
The vacancy rate was down over the previous quarter, with net absorption totaling positive 990,481 square feet in the fourth quarter. That compares to negative 575,819 square feet in the third quarter. Vacant sublease space increased in the quarter, ending the quarter at 4,944,077 square feet.
http://www.costar.com/News/Article/Market-Trend-New-York-Citys-Office-Vacancy-Decreases-to-74/145256
Net Absorption Positive 990,481 SF in the Quarter
By Justin Sumner
January 31, 2013
The New York City Office market ended the fourth quarter 2012 with a vacancy rate of 7.4%.
The vacancy rate was down over the previous quarter, with net absorption totaling positive 990,481 square feet in the fourth quarter. That compares to negative 575,819 square feet in the third quarter. Vacant sublease space increased in the quarter, ending the quarter at 4,944,077 square feet.
http://www.costar.com/News/Article/Market-Trend-New-York-Citys-Office-Vacancy-Decreases-to-74/145256
First Insights: China: Surprise fall in official PMI
Economics Research | Asia Ex-Japan
01 February 2013
First Insights: China: Surprise fall in official PMI
China’s official PMI dropped surprisingly to 50.4 in January from 50.6 in December (Consensus 51.0, Nomura 50.9), which casts some doubt on the strength and sustainability of the growth recovery.
Sub-indexes show mixed signals. Output was down to 51.3 from 52.0, but new orders rose to 51.6 from 51.2 and while inventories of finished goods fell to 47.4 from 49.4, which suggests that the PMI may improve next month.
The improvement of new orders was mostly driven by domestic demand as export orders fell. Input prices rose sharply to 57.2 from 53.3, reinforcing our view that inflation may surprise on the upside in 2013.
Economists
Zhiwei Zhang
01 February 2013
First Insights: China: Surprise fall in official PMI
China’s official PMI dropped surprisingly to 50.4 in January from 50.6 in December (Consensus 51.0, Nomura 50.9), which casts some doubt on the strength and sustainability of the growth recovery.
Sub-indexes show mixed signals. Output was down to 51.3 from 52.0, but new orders rose to 51.6 from 51.2 and while inventories of finished goods fell to 47.4 from 49.4, which suggests that the PMI may improve next month.
The improvement of new orders was mostly driven by domestic demand as export orders fell. Input prices rose sharply to 57.2 from 53.3, reinforcing our view that inflation may surprise on the upside in 2013.
Economists
Zhiwei Zhang
Eco Analysis - Impressive German labour data (M. Martinez, A. Annenkov)
Eco Analysis - Impressive German labour data (M. Martinez, A. Annenkov)
Hard data once gain underlined the growing divergences between the French and German economies. German labour data proved very impressive and the unemployment rate dropped to a 20 year low in January (6.8% in January. Meanwhile, French consumption was flat in Q4 12 and details suggest that it is likely to remain sluggish in Q1 13.
Hard data once gain underlined the growing divergences between the French and German economies. German labour data proved very impressive and the unemployment rate dropped to a 20 year low in January (6.8% in January. Meanwhile, French consumption was flat in Q4 12 and details suggest that it is likely to remain sluggish in Q1 13.
European real estate loan sales to gather pace in 2013
EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE LOAN SALES TO GATHER PACE IN 2013
30 Jan, 2013, London
Against a background of continued economic uncertainty and impending regulatory changes, the pace of activity in the European real estate loan sale market will accelerate significantly over the next two years according to a new report from property consultant Cushman & Wakefield. Over the past 12 months, a total of 33 completed loan sale transactions were recorded, totaling €21.7 billion (up 146% on 2011), demonstrating that European commercial real estate (CRE) loan portfolios can be successfully traded. The market has made a strong start to 2013 and in view of the build up of activity amongst the banks and their legacy entities and their aggressive deleveraging targets, Cushman & Wakefield is forecasting over €25 billion of CRE loan portfolio and real estate-owned (REO) sales for the forthcoming year.
http://www.cushwake.com/cwglobal/jsp/newsLanding.jsp?Language=EN&featuredNewsItemId=c60500007p&Country=GB&pageStart=26
30 Jan, 2013, London
Against a background of continued economic uncertainty and impending regulatory changes, the pace of activity in the European real estate loan sale market will accelerate significantly over the next two years according to a new report from property consultant Cushman & Wakefield. Over the past 12 months, a total of 33 completed loan sale transactions were recorded, totaling €21.7 billion (up 146% on 2011), demonstrating that European commercial real estate (CRE) loan portfolios can be successfully traded. The market has made a strong start to 2013 and in view of the build up of activity amongst the banks and their legacy entities and their aggressive deleveraging targets, Cushman & Wakefield is forecasting over €25 billion of CRE loan portfolio and real estate-owned (REO) sales for the forthcoming year.
http://www.cushwake.com/cwglobal/jsp/newsLanding.jsp?Language=EN&featuredNewsItemId=c60500007p&Country=GB&pageStart=26
USA: Sabine Pass Liquefaction Prices Senior Notes Offering, USA
USA: Sabine Pass Liquefaction Prices Senior Notes Offering, USA
Posted on Jan 30th, 2013
Cheniere Energy Partners said that its wholly owned subsidiary, Sabine Pass Liquefaction has priced its previously announced offering of Senior Secured Notes due 2021.
http://www.lngworldnews.com/usa-sabine-pass-liquefaction-prices-senior-notes-offering-usa/
Posted on Jan 30th, 2013
Cheniere Energy Partners said that its wholly owned subsidiary, Sabine Pass Liquefaction has priced its previously announced offering of Senior Secured Notes due 2021.
http://www.lngworldnews.com/usa-sabine-pass-liquefaction-prices-senior-notes-offering-usa/
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
US: Markets Through the Looking Glass
US: Markets Through the Looking Glass
Julia Coronado - Market Economics
US Daily Spotlight | 31 Jan 2013 01:40 |
Financial markets continued their increasingly bizarre, bullish run Wednesday, with a teensy equity selloff and little change in Treasury yields, despite a surprise negative print on Q4 GDP growth. While a number of volatile drivers of Q4 GDP weakness should be smoothed through, one truly needs to be peering through the looking glass to extract a positive spin from such a negative surprise. The FOMC also looked through the Q4 economic weakness, although the Committee drew the conclusion that not enough has changed in the economic outlook for them to alter their ongoing expansion of monetary policy, and they maintained their USD 85bn pace of securities purchases. It appears that a recent expansion in leverage on the part of hedge funds has contributed to the bull run in markets that has been impervious to weaker-than-expected economic data, and, at some point, markets could become responsive once again to economic data.
Julia Coronado - Market Economics
US Daily Spotlight | 31 Jan 2013 01:40 |
Financial markets continued their increasingly bizarre, bullish run Wednesday, with a teensy equity selloff and little change in Treasury yields, despite a surprise negative print on Q4 GDP growth. While a number of volatile drivers of Q4 GDP weakness should be smoothed through, one truly needs to be peering through the looking glass to extract a positive spin from such a negative surprise. The FOMC also looked through the Q4 economic weakness, although the Committee drew the conclusion that not enough has changed in the economic outlook for them to alter their ongoing expansion of monetary policy, and they maintained their USD 85bn pace of securities purchases. It appears that a recent expansion in leverage on the part of hedge funds has contributed to the bull run in markets that has been impervious to weaker-than-expected economic data, and, at some point, markets could become responsive once again to economic data.
Bechtel Completes Construction Of Chemical Weapons Demilitarization Facility
BECHTEL COMPLETES CONSTRUCTION OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS DEMILITARIZATION FACILITY
January 29, 2013
Colorado Plant is First of Its Kind in the United States
PUEBLO, COLORADO, January 29, 2013 — Bechtel announced today the Bechtel Pueblo Team (BPT) has completed construction of the Pueblo Chemical Agent-Destruction Pilot Plant (PCAPP). The facility will eventually destroy 2,611 tons of mustard agent-filled munitions currently being stored at the U.S. Army Pueblo Chemical Depot in Colorado.
January 29, 2013
Colorado Plant is First of Its Kind in the United States
PUEBLO, COLORADO, January 29, 2013 — Bechtel announced today the Bechtel Pueblo Team (BPT) has completed construction of the Pueblo Chemical Agent-Destruction Pilot Plant (PCAPP). The facility will eventually destroy 2,611 tons of mustard agent-filled munitions currently being stored at the U.S. Army Pueblo Chemical Depot in Colorado.
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